EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Precip blowing up now. Should start here in next 1-2 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good, let's get some snow on the ground to 'soak up' ice. Rather have ice-crusted snow than zr laying on raw roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Saw Weather World had 3-6" for much of Central PA, from Harrisburg to the Allegheny Front north to the NY border, then over to NEPA and back down to near Harrisburg. Mentioned a sharp cutoff on the western edge west of State College...hopefully we'll end up on the right side of that cutoff. here is the weather world map..i put a pa overlay on it but it doesnt line up well but will give a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alleghenies-16693 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Air temperature 19, dew point 14 - and the virga is getting eaten up by the dry on the mosaic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 doug allen of wgal just did an update for the lower susq valley calling for 1-2 inches of light snow before changing to frz rn and sleet in the am.... the radar sure does look juicy for just 1-2, but maybe I'm being a weenie?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 doug allen of wgal just did an update for the lower susq valley calling for 1-2 inches of light snow before changing to frz rn and sleet in the am.... the radar sure does look juicy for just 1-2, but maybe I'm being a weenie?? Nope...dead wrong. The snow is going to start within the hour (earlier than expected)! More than 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 what temp do you have storm clouds? when i'm not at work, i'm a lost puppy without the temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 what temp do you have storm clouds? when i'm not at work, i'm a lost puppy without the temp My weather station reads exactly 24 degrees. It has been slowly dropping since 6:30. Should drop even more when the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Guys, we are going to have hours of verga because it is so dry. I think the 1-2" of snow and .1" ice for MDT, York and Lancaster is about spot-on. It will warm up fairly quickly once precip starts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Guys, we are going to have hours of verga because it is so dry. I think the 1-2" of snow and .1" ice for MDT, York and Lancaster is about spot-on. It will warm up fairly quickly once precip starts IMO. may wanna check your thermometer...mdt has fallen from 25 to 24 as well has lns...temps haven't been rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My weather station reads exactly 24 degrees. It has been slowly dropping since 6:30. Should drop even more when the snow starts. yep it's not 'should' drop but will drop due to the very low dew points in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I edited, I had the wrong date pulled up on my cheap little reader! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Guys, we are going to have hours of verga because it is so dry. I think the 1-2" of snow and .1" ice for MDT, York and Lancaster is about spot-on. It will warm up fairly quickly once precip starts IMO. Yeah, no offense, but my temp. has been slowly dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 btw guys this was just posted by Eric Horst at Millersville...he is typically very good locally at winter events 7:00pm Monday update:I really think some forecasters are underplaying this event. It's really a classic set up for an icy mess. Temperatures didn't hardly rise today...a sign of the strong cold air damming in place across the region. Also, dew points remain in the singles and teens early this evening, so the air will cool a bit more when precipitation arrives. Still looks like light snow will develop by mid-evening, and become steady before midnight. An inch or two of snow is possible, but the bigger concern is ice build-up on trees, powerlines, and untreated roads...later tonight into midday Tuesday. A 1/4" of ice (perhaps more in spots) is possible by mid-morning Tuesday, as temps only slowly rise towards 32 degrees. The steady precip will likely end around Noon, and so mos--or all--of the event will occur with below freezing temps. Thus, my concern for a pretty significant event the next 18 hours...one that I think deserves a Winter Storm Warning from the NWS (we are only in a lesser "Advisory", though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 not so sure it will be hours based on the speed at which radar filled in over md and the length of time between radar returns showing up and light snow being reported at bwi... but i'm sure for a period yes. Regardless... there are many hours ahead of "light snow" before we will be switching to the sloppy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Eric knows his stuff. Imagine the good times i had watching him and Dr. John Scala (also knows his stuff) talk about forecasts. and i think he's right in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 btw guys this was just posted by Eric Horst at Millersville...he is typically very good locally at winter events AMAZING POST! That guy (which I did meet in person a few weeks ago for job shadowing) is the best MET in south central PA period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Eric knows his stuff. Imagine the good times i had watching him and Dr. John Scala (also knows his stuff) talk about forecasts. and i think he's right in this case AMAZING POST!:thumbsup:That guy (which I did meet in person) is the best MET in south central PA period! He is a terrific met, i've listened to his discussions live here, it's awesome but the thing that really jumps out about this even more is that he is typically very conservative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Horst is the best out this way for sure, he's great. I'd guess the virga breaks around 10-10:30. It'll NE interesting to see what we wake up to in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Horst is the best out this way for sure, he's great. I'd guess the virga breaks around 10-10:30. It'll NE interesting to see what we wake up to in the am. None of it is virga...Hanover and places along the Mason Dixon line are now reporting light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Guys, we are going to have hours of verga because it is so dry. I think the 1-2" of snow and .1" ice for MDT, York and Lancaster is about spot-on. It will warm up fairly quickly once precip starts IMO. Flurries here 28/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This could get very ugly in Hazleton. Temp is 16.1, DP is 8. We should drop to about 12-13 with the onset of precip...I find it hard to believe temps will recover 20 degrees before the heavy precip is gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This could get very ugly in Hazleton. Temp is 16.1, DP is 8. We should drop to about 12-13 with the onset of precip...I find it hard to believe temps will recover 20 degrees before the heavy precip is gone... you guys will see a significant event imo....there's no way i see it getting to 32 before the the precip moves out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNorthMTN Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Im about where you are temp wise, near rickett's glenn This could get very ugly in Hazleton. Temp is 16.1, DP is 8. We should drop to about 12-13 with the onset of precip...I find it hard to believe temps will recover 20 degrees before the heavy precip is gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 None of it is virga...Hanover and places along the Mason Dixon line are now reporting light snow. Really? That surprises me, don't dew points have to rise to get the precip through? What a poor night for my posting, I should stp while I'm behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 you guys will see a significant event imo....there's no way i see it getting to 32 before the the precip moves out.. Agree with the latter, but I see the models trending drier right now...RUC gives us less than 0.50 QPF total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Really? That surprises me, don't dew points have to rise to get the precip through? What a poor night for my posting, I should stp while I'm behind. with an eroding air mass, unless the dp's are extremely low, virga won't be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Agree with the latter, but I see the models trending drier right now...RUC gives us less than 0.50 QPF total. ruc is typically too low with precip amount...just something i've noticed but i would say 2-4 inches of snow and sleet, then .2-.4 freezing rain for you guys right now...would be an extremely messy commute if i'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Interesting, didn't realize that aspect. Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 with an eroding air mass, unless the dp's are extremely low, virga won't be a factor. Watching the echoes approach the radar site north of State College, I could tell that virga wasn't going to be that great of an issue with this. In a serious virga situation the echoes approach the radar and then split around the site, and as the atmosphere slowly moistens, the echo-less circle slowly shrinks towards the site....sometimes taking hours. With this event, that doesn't seem to be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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