canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, CTP issued its WAA for the grids. I imagine the wording is similar for the whole area. .1 ice isn't going to cause many power outages by itself, but it'll make driving somewhat impossible here with all the converging interstates and the morons who drive on them. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 603 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTRY MIX EARLY TUESDAY... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SPREADING A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-171915- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0004.110118T0500Z-110118T1800Z/ JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIFFLINTOWN...CHAMBERSBURG...LAPORTE... WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY... SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY... POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 603 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATION...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, CTP issued its WAA for the grids. I imagine the wording is similar for the whole area. .1 ice isn't going to cause many power outages by itself, but it'll make driving somewhat impossible here with all the converging interstates and the morons who drive on them. Eric Horst disagrees with the WAA: A very cold day is on tap as clouds increase over top a large, strong area of high pressure parked over northern New England. Two low pressures systems, one moving in from the Midwest and the other moving up the east coast, will then converge on the region tonight through Tuesday night. The low pressure system along the east coast is the main threat, and with cold air damming in place over most of central and eastern PA (thanks to the New England high pressure) we will have a long duration of frozen/freezing precipitation tonight and Tuesday. Light snow should develop this evening, with a coating to an inch or two possible, before changing to sleet then freezing rain. Here in Lancaster (and points to our west and north), I expect freezing rain to be the primary threat with a 1/4" or more of ice accumulation possible...which could certainly make for significant problems Tuesday. Areas to our south and east will likely change over to plan rain by mid to late morning Tuesday, whereas colder valley areas farther north and west could very well remain at or below freezing all day Tuesday. By late Tuesday afternoon, the steady precipitation will end; so I expect just some lingering freezing drizzle or plain drizzle Tuesday night with temperatures hovering within a couple degrees of freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well if anyone sees 1/4" ice, God bless them. We don't have a fireplace or generator, so I always hope for as little ice as possible (we are somewhat helped by having our utilities all underground and living in the city proper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well if anyone sees 1/4" ice, God bless them. We don't have a fireplace or generator, so I always hope for as little ice as possible (we are somewhat helped by having our utilities all underground and living in the city proper). I just hope we get more snow and then a glaze of ice on top. Makes for sweet sledding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well if anyone sees 1/4" ice, God bless them. We don't have a fireplace or generator, so I always hope for as little ice as possible (we are somewhat helped by having our utilities all underground and living in the city proper). Well, hey, it looks like Friday might be the day to look forward to after all. I should have just left your original post go yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I still think we end up on the higher end of the snow before it changes over to whatever its going to change over to!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, hey, it looks like Friday might be the day to look forward to after all. I should have just left your original post go yesterday. I really need to catch up on weather and find out whats going on, i had no time to follow over the weekend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I just hope we get more snow and then a glaze of ice on top. Makes for sweet sledding! Just don't run into a tombstone like I did. I grew up right near Kiwanis Lake area, and would sled in Prospect Hill Cemetery due to the awesome hills. We went after an event like is being predicted when I was like 13 and I couldn't steer on the ice and crashed into a tombstone. I wasn't hurt as I bailed before it got to that and was worried about being haunted after that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I really need to catch up on weather and find out whats going on, i had no time to follow over the weekend..... Please let us know when you get caught up, then we'll know you're just as confused as we are. In all seriousness, once again their has been very little consensus among the models. Right now it looks like some snow is possible Thursday night/Friday, with more opportunities over the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Please let us know when you get caught up, then we'll know you're just as confused as we are. In all seriousness, once again their has been very little consensus among the models. Right now it looks like some snow is possible Thursday night/Friday, with more opportunities over the next week or two. lol......doesn't look boring anyhow does it.. It seems like i have seen this pony show before and honestly, i'm starting to think we may have some real issues with the ice. I just don't see this cold air leaving as quickly as think. It seems pretty locked in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Jon, wasn't the river pretty awesome this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Jon, wasn't the river pretty awesome this morning? Yep. Yesterday my daughter and i drove up through Wormleysburg and were checking it out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Final Call. I am going safe for now. There can def be more snow in the S.Central though. Maybe 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z nam paints a nasty ice storm north of 78. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM shows about 3in of snow/sleet on the BUFKIT 10:1 profiles followed by about a quarter of an inch of freezing rain; yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Final Call. I am going safe for now. There can def be more snow in the S.Central though. Maybe 2-4" why can't i ever see your images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 WOW at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 why can't i ever see your images? IDK. Everyone else can. lol I got you in 1-2" snow Around .1" ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM shows about 3in of snow/sleet on the BUFKIT 10:1 profiles followed by about a quarter of an inch of freezing rain; yuck! What station is that reading for? One thing to keep in mind is thr nam often overshoots precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 For HGR is's .18" SN Which is 2" Then .33" ZR... hmmm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 IDK. Everyone else can. lol I got you in 1-2" snow Around .1" ZR. What is total precip for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Jon, wasn't the river pretty awesome this morning? Yep. Yesterday my daughter and i drove up through Wormleysburg and were checking it out too. Wonder if there will be a lot of ice jams later this year. Never forget the weird moaning noises the ice made back in the cold 70s winters. My parents and I one time stood at York Haven and it was surreal, the ice breaking and moving. Good old Susquehanna. I love that river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is total precip for MDT http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KMDT.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is total precip for MDT .88, not sure how much of that is below freezing. At least .51 is based on the text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wonder if there will be a lot of ice jams later this year. Never forget the weird moaning noises the ice made back in the cold 70s winters. My parents and I one time stood at York Haven and it was surreal, the ice breaking and moving. Good old Susquehanna. I love that river. Jamie, in 96, when we had the ice jams, when the bridge was ripped off the piers, was the worst i have ever seen or heard it. Part of our 1st due for our FD, we cover a road that runs along the river (river road) because the river/ice had came up so high, it was on that road and it was impassable from either direction. We had a incident which required us to walk almost a mile, carrying all our equipment to get there. It was about 630PM and was very Errie walking that distance at dark. i'll never forget the sounds that ice made.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KMDT.txt This is a bit better link: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm I love that product, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Jamie, in 96, when we had the ice jams, when the bridge was ripped off the piers, was the worst i have ever seen or heard it. Part of our 1st due for our FD, we cover a road that runs along the river (river road) because the river/ice had came up so high, it was on that road and it was impassable from either direction. We had a incident which required us to walk almost a mile, carrying all our equipment to get there. It was about 630PM and was very Errie walking that distance at dark. i'll never forget the sounds that ice made.. Yeah, it is odd, that sound. I heard the 96 jams were tremendous. One thing that stuck in my mind was the front of this river bungalow getting the front ripped off by a passing giant piece of ice. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What station is that reading for? One thing to keep in mind is thr nam often overshoots precip totals. Ooops, sorry, lol. It is for Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 .88, not sure how much of that is below freezing. At least .51 is based on the text output. I have .953in for KMDT for total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kmdt.dat Here is the main page http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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