JamieOber Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Might get a burst of snow here if this band can hold together. Just flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS is an ice storm for the area, significantly so in the MDT area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS is an ice storm for the area, significantly so in the MDT area... York too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 12Z GFS is deadly. 2-4" snow then a butt load of ice .25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z summary: NAM: Barely any precip to matter GFS: Ice storm GGEM: Barely any precip to matter EURO: Quick wintry mix to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z Euro = Rain for us Tuesday, but BIG SNOWSTORM for us around Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Any mets have a feeling about what will/won't happen with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Any mets have a feeling about what will/won't happen with this storm? Now that the pictures a bit more clear with this event's evolution I think unless the 12z operational GFS had its way that there shouldn't be any serious issues in central PA from this. Thats not to say there won't be issues, but it appears like this is going to be a bit more of a lighter wintry mix event. As pointed out above, the NAM and GGEM currently don't even have much of any precip at all (not sure of Euro's precip output yet). A look at the 09z SREF's prints out a mean of .25-.50" for all of Central PA. They also support precip beginning as snowfall for awhile in a lot of the region, eventually showing higher probs for freezing rain and then rain.. but the rain probs are pretty much at the end of the event. So I think how I laid out my snow/mix/rain regions in my post the other day still looks fairly decent. Air in place at the surface appears to be pretty chilly for precip arrival, supporting the snow and/or sleet start for alot. I'm not as concerned for widespread significant freezing rain, if the developing coastal does throw back any heavier precip..it would be in the eastern parts of the region at a point when dominant p-type would likely be plain rain. I'm thinking this ends up a CTP regionwide advisory for some bs snow/sleet accums and maybe .1" of zr. Southern tier mountains may still approach .25"..still have a day or two to hash out the p-types and QPF. It would be nice if the NAM and GGEM was right and we didn't see much at all from this, because there is plenty more potential further down the road like the storm that showed up on the euro at the end of the week. Pretty amazing how in the past several days the rumblings of a major thaw toward the end of the month seem to be put on ice (pun intended). The -NAO/-AO is now not the teleconnection combo that will be assisting in anchoring the cold..but rather the +PNA/-AO, although the NAO appears to head back down towards a bit negative. The NAO is not as important for our region as it is for the folks to our east (i.e the I-95 corridor), in fact a more neutral NAO with the right setup is probably better for us to have during a coastal storm. You can see the effects of that in todays Euro run with the end of the week coastal. And I suppose we should enjoy the warm-ish weather today and maybe Tuesday, cuz its lookin quite cold after that. Should be fun watching all of this evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 WOW....NAM looks perfect except temps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow, CTP went colder with their new forecasts: County forecast for Blair Martin luther king jr day Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent. Monday night Snow likely with a chance of sleet. Light snow accumulation possible. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 20s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tuesday Snow with a chance of sleet. Additional light snow accumulation. Not as cool with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Tuesday night A chance of sleet in the evening. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Checked around a few other counties too...even all the way down in York county, they have the same forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Heres an excerpt from CTP afternoon disco: THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO GO MORE WITH SNOW AND SOME SLEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERN SYSTEM MAY WARM IT UP SOME...LOW LEVELS ARE COLD. WHILE A WARM WEDGE IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW EARLY...THEN SOME SLEET. QPF AMTS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT...GIVEN COASTAL STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Heres an excerpt from CTP afternoon disco: THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO GO MORE WITH SNOW AND SOME SLEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERN SYSTEM MAY WARM IT UP SOME...LOW LEVELS ARE COLD. WHILE A WARM WEDGE IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW EARLY...THEN SOME SLEET. QPF AMTS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT...GIVEN COASTAL STORM Yea, sounds reasonable. The high coming into place in the wake of today's clipper moving through the Northeast is going to make it cold in front of this possible event. Lows Sunday night likely get into the single digits to low teens depending on where one lives in the region.. and with clouds moving in late Sunday/early Monday there isn't going to be much of a chance to warm things up at the surface. Actually looks like a pretty good sleet setup after some initial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Sleet > zr! It isn't ideal but better than the alternative. I'm in NYC today, it is actually pleasant. 38 and not crowded. The 2nd-3rd week of January are the best to be in the city, because there are no tourists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Again Nam and Gfs in different worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still barely any precip to be found on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still barely any precip to be found on the NAM. Weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This storm gets less interesting by the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Btw....mets I'm dumb so stick with me lol. IF the temps get down to 4 here Sun. Night and we have a high of 17 like the NWS is saying Mon, would the ground be harder to warm up with light precip when the temp bumps up to 32-33? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS cuts back...the trend continues. The storms just love I-95 with the precip distribution this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yawn... Here comes another tease at hour 120+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 I swear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 They can keep this Tursday mess. Next Friday's Miller B potential intrigues me greatly, and the pure arctic cold around next weekend. Some of you C PAers might not see double-digits Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 CMC says hold on. Looks like GFS and a bit more west with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 CMC please oh please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 JMA joins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Man these weather model sucks. 6Z nam say ok gfs i'll side with you. Then 12Z opps never mind let's all go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ya, I know...The bad news is the precip looks light, and therefore should have an easier time. Most of the time heavy precip will cause the ground temps to jump with latent heat....a slow, steady rain is where you'll get your ice accretions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 CMC still dumps down the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here is my first thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here is my first thoughts. im good with that i hate ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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