Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The GFS does cool things down, but it still paints a nasty ice storm for parts of Central PA and especially NE PA it appears. And I'll wholeheartedly pull for my rain storm over this scenario...I detest ice storms unless I have a nice deep snow cover to encase it in, which I won't have come next Tuesday...I'm already seeing grass in sun-exposed areas. Now, if the clipper over performs this weekend, then that's a different story for a different day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z models today still show a similar divergence in storm evolution as last night for the early next week event. The GFS having the straight lakes cutter and the European/GGEM trying to put more emphasis on a coastal low pressure. Its kind of funny, the last event we needed that midwest low to be strong enough to give our region more snowfall and this event we need it to be such that it doesn't overwhelm the area with warm air. Given the setup, notably the west ridge lurking quite a bit west of the ideal alignment and no longer any -NAO to block.. I have to think the GFS is closer to reality. Not to mention the GFS seems to have a knack for the GLC type system when it decides to show them at this range. However, if you take a balance of the model suite you'd come to a solution that favors a more dominant midwest to lower lakes low with a secondary reflection to the coast or perhaps a double barrel low pressure. I think we'll at least see some kind of coastal reflection. Whatever evolves will determine how much/how many types our region gets. The best case scenario for us is probably having a double barrel low, which would likely equate to mainly snow/sleet for precip types for most everyone. The GFS solution today probably would spell a good bit of freezing rain for some folks after some front end snowfall. The GGEM and Euro as I mentioned above put the emphasis on a developing coastal low and actually don't even give us very much precip. As things stand right now, I think folks that live along/east of I-81 and south of I-78 might be the most vulnerable places to see a change to all liquid depending on aforementioned low evolution. Once you get to the I-95 corridor, it doesn't appear its going to matter this go around. Even the Euro and GGEM despite having a coastal low isn't able to cool things off quick enough to equate to snow until perhaps New England. West of I-81, the central third of the state has the best chance to stay mainly frozen with the southern-most areas seeing a freezing rain threat. And then of course roughly the western third of the state (west of the Laurels) prolly sees the traditional area of mainly rain in sw pa below the turnpike, sloppy mess from say Pgh up to I-80 and west of I-79 and mainly frozen northeast of that. Additionally, some of the southern Laurels could be in for a significant freezing rain threat. That's my initial very rough guess on potential precip types for now, but you know the computer models.. that thinking could be out the window effective next model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 WOW...Euro sums up the last 2 winters in N Central PA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Your right, euro has a low near the coast. We are west of the track in January and yet it looks like rain or maybe ice. Looks like the mid January storm from last winter when we had a perfect track for central Pa and got rain cuz the cold air had been depleted. Still some time to watch this, maybe things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ya...scary actually, I guess we never get above freezing, but 850 is above the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well , ahh...it really just makes me shake my head at how this seems to always play out. Like I said, maybe it will change. One day we will get a 10 inch snowfall again.Hell, I think 6-8 would make us happy or even more frequent clippers would work too.lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You better believe it man, if we get 10+ inches meet me at bar of your choice, the drinks are on me!!! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LMAO.The sad thing is I wouldnt bet you on that,considering our track record last few yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 WOW...Euro sums up the last 2 winters in N Central PA lol. Not last winter,few mix events. Storms to our south, remember? Now two winters ago, had enough for five winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like the cold air finally unloads on us later next week. Perhaps a clipper around the 20th or 21st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Boy i'll tell it was cold and windy last night. I came out of the gym from Softball practice ( all sweaty) bout sent me into shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like the cold air finally unloads on us later next week. Perhaps a clipper around the 20th or 21st? 19th thru the 26th looks cold then it looks like a warmup. I think the models must monitor this thread. Then do the opposite of what we are posting. Mag Good write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I met some friends downtown last night and had a .5 mile walk to the restaurant from where I was initially. It was, indeed, a wee bit nippy. My little home thermometer had a low of 9, but I never believe that thing to be accurate. The ice storm potential for next week is real. And real scary. I am most fearful of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I met some friends downtown last night and had a .5 mile walk to the restaurant from where I was initially. It was, indeed, a wee bit nippy. My little home thermometer had a low of 9, but I never believe that thing to be accurate. The ice storm potential for next week is real. And real scary. I am most fearful of ice. Two years ago we had to go to funeral the day of an ice storm. the wife of the family member who passed fell and broke her hip and didn't make the funeral. IT was one of the worse ice storms we had, becasue we had to drive all over in it. I am hoping that if it is an ice storm, the ptb decide to close the schools and roads before someone really gets hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A few years ago (I believe 2008), we had a "surprise" ice storm on Christmas Eve morning. We had to drive to PHL for a flight to Dallas. The turnpike was closed completely due to a deadly wreck that killed six, so we had to drive to PHL on backroads through Lancaster County with .5" ice on the rural untreated roads. It was the worst driving experience ever. Took 5 hours to get to PHL, when it should take 1:45h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I met some friends downtown last night and had a .5 mile walk to the restaurant from where I was initially. It was, indeed, a wee bit nippy. My little home thermometer had a low of 9, but I never believe that thing to be accurate. The ice storm potential for next week is real. And real scary. I am most fearful of ice. I'm not sold yet.. I hate ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A few years ago (I believe 2008), we had a "surprise" ice storm on Christmas Eve morning. We had to drive to PHL for a flight to Dallas. The turnpike was closed completely due to a deadly wreck that killed six, so we had to drive to PHL on backroads through Lancaster County with .5" ice on the rural untreated roads. It was the worst driving experience ever. Took 5 hours to get to PHL, when it should take 1:45h. Correct Wednesday December 24th, 2008..Also Sunday December 15th 2007 we had sleet and frzn which created havoc in the area. We lost power for 7 hours, we were lucky, others lost it for days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not sold yet.. I hate ice too. Kind of agree, I guess the potential is there, but what, the GFS and Euro last night were 1000 miles apart with the track of the low? Good luck forecasters this weekend. I don't envy any of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And now look who's in the bullseye for QPF...and we've lost our great set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 wow, just F-ing wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And now look who's in the bullseye for QPF...and we've lost our great set up. The Euro at this point isn't bad for any of us, and pretty good for true geographic central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The Euro at this point isn't bad for any of us, and pretty good for true geographic central PA. Correct, and it's been trending better. (I hate using the word "trending") My point was for really the 1st time this season, there are serious concerns over precip type. Up until now, it was only a matter if we'd get precip, now we're in the bullseye, but have to concern ourselves with what form it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Correct, and it's been trending better. (I hate using the word "trending") My point was for really the 1st time this season, there are serious concerns over precip type. Up until now, it was only a matter if we'd get precip, now we're in the bullseye, but have to concern ourselves with what form it will be. and that would be a hell of a lot of ice..No thank you! Maybe we should fire up the generators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 here ya Steelers Fans..i posted this in the PBG thread too WARNING*****The National Weather Service has issued a falling bird warning for Pittsburgh Saturday starting at 3:30 and continuing until the end of the fourth quarter. Falling birds could be heavy at times especially around the Heinz Field area. Heavy accumulation is likely!!! HERE WE GO STEELERS!!!! ALL YOU STEELERS FANS REPOST THIS TO SHOW YOUR LOVE FOR THE BLACK AND GOLD!! "Our Father, Who Art in Pittsburgh, Football be Thy Game, Let Mendenhall Run, 6 Super bowls Won, On Earth, as it is in Heinz Field. Give Us this Day a Playoff Victory, and Forgive Us Our Penalties, as We Defeat Those Ravens (and anyone else in our way) Who Play Against Us. But Lead Us into a Victory, and Deliver Us to Dallas. For Thine is the D-Line, the Polamalu, and the Harrison.....A-Ben. GO STEELERS!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Henry's snow map FWIW accuweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 here ya Steelers Fans..i posted this in the PBG thread too WARNING*****The National Weather Service has issued a falling bird warning for Pittsburgh Saturday starting at 3:30 and continuing until the end of the fourth quarter. Falling birds could be heavy at times especially around the Heinz Field area. Heavy accumulation is likely!!! HERE WE GO STEELERS!!!! ALL YOU STEELERS FANS REPOST THIS TO SHOW YOUR LOVE FOR THE BLACK AND GOLD!! "Our Father, Who Art in Pittsburgh, Football be Thy Game, Let Mendenhall Run, 6 Super bowls Won, On Earth, as it is in Heinz Field. Give Us this Day a Playoff Victory, and Forgive Us Our Penalties, as We Defeat Those Ravens (and anyone else in our way) Who Play Against Us. But Lead Us into a Victory, and Deliver Us to Dallas. For Thine is the D-Line, the Polamalu, and the Harrison.....A-Ben. GO STEELERS!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not a Steelers fan (not an NFL fan really), but a friend posted this on FB: A Ravens fan, a Bengals fan and a Steelers fan are climbing a mountain and arguing about who loves his team more. The Bengals fan insists he is the most loyal. "This is for the Bengals!" he yells, and jumps off the side of the mountain. Not to be outdone, the Steelers fan is next to profess his love for his team. He yells "This is for the Steelers!" and pushes the Ravens fan off the mountain. Go Steelers!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not a Steelers fan (not an NFL fan really), but a friend posted this on FB: Atta boy gitter done........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not a Steelers fan (not an NFL fan really), but a friend posted this on FB: I like how the Browns are just missing from that little story haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM looks interesting in CPA...you wouldn't know it, had to do some investigating lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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