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Central PA Thread Continued


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How do you compare to last year at this time?

i didnt keep a written record.

i always just used the info in my sig. but since EUSWX forum went down i lost all my info i had on there...grrrrr.

but if my memory is right we are ahead of last year at this time.

i dont think winter(snow) really started for us until the end of jan into feb. but like i said i could be wrong.

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what do you think of the threat next week?

It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune!

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First off, I compiled a map from the PNS statements to get a general idea how my forecast map did. All in all not too bad, a tad light in places.. but everyone got some decent snows, just not the insanity that happened further northeast.

Forecasted:

post-1507-0-25862300-1294890690.png

Actual:

post-1507-0-96121800-1294891475.png

It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune!

Yea i'm surprised that Euro currently is being the one that is more supressed of the two models. The 12z GGEM was also similar to the Euro for the storm and the GFS has been all sorts of a mess trying to make a storm. Yesterdays afternoon euro run had what appeared to be a high thickness (in between 540-546) snow event for most of CPA and not very much mixing with the 850 and 925 0's being all the way down to VA under the western 2/3rds of the state. Without the -NAO and as u mentioned, the mean trough comin back a bit, this should def be a miller-B eventually I think, and probably more of a true one than this storm now (no front running gulf wave). Precip types should be fun to determine, hopefully it stays mostly frozen.

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It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune!

Yea i'm surprised that Euro currently is being the one that is more supressed of the two models. The 12z GGEM was also similar to the Euro for the storm and the GFS has been all sorts of a mess trying to make a storm. Yesterdays afternoon euro run had what appeared to be a high thickness (in between 540-546) snow event for most of CPA and not very much mixing with the 850 and 925 0's being all the way down to VA under the western 2/3rds of the state. Without the -NAO and as u mentioned, the mean trough comin back a bit, this should def be a miller-B eventually I think, and probably more of a true one than this storm now (no front running gulf wave). Precip types should be fun to determine, hopefully it stays mostly frozen.

thanks for the info....6 days and counting :lol:

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It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune!

Maybe i will just let the spreader and plow attached to the trucks here at work for now then.

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The latest GFS seems to have more frozen for that storm.

It's def trending southward. Here's an interesting note from NOAA that could change the models a bit over the next few days:

North American Winter Storm Forecasts to Get Boost from High-Tech NOAA Plane

NOAA has dispatched one of its highly specialized research aircraft to collect atmospheric data over the North Pacific Ocean to enhance forecasts of winter storms for the entire North American continent.

NOAA’s high-altitude, twin-engine Gulfstream IV-SP jet will be stationed at Yokota Air Force Base in Japan through February before repositioning to Honolulu in March. From these locations, the aircraft will be tasked by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service — to collect information such as wind speed and direction, pressure, temperature and humidity. The data will be sent via satellite to global operational weather forecasting centers and fed into sophisticated computer forecast models.

“Data collected from these flights will help provide a more refined snapshot of the atmosphere, which in turn improves forecasts,” said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Md.

The reconnaissance missions have had a positive impact on global numerical weather prediction models which means better storm intensity and track forecasts, plus improved wind and precipitation forecasts.

Atmospheric data from the western Pacific, where most of North America’s weather originates, is scarce so NOAA incorporated the Japan-based missions into its annual Winter Storms Reconnaissance program in early 2009. Prior missions were flown from Alaska, Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast.

“By expanding our reach to Japan, we are able to gather data upstream of winter storms, thereby gaining more lead time for emergency managers and responders to prepare for the impacts of severe winter weather on lives and property,” said meteorologist and flight director Jack Parrish with the NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations.

The Gulfstream IV is based at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. The plane is part of the NOAA fleet of research aircraft and ships operated, managed and maintained by the NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations.

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