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I do think MDT might be east enough to see 5-6". Sat images will be interesting as currently have the moisture west from modeled.

Also, it appears the start time now being later Tuesday afternoon/evening, that will help as well. Also, i just ask my friend what the forecast high is to be today, cause that may bust. I was just outside and it doesn't seem like it has warmed up.

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I do think MDT might be east enough to see 5-6". Sat images will be interesting as currently have the moisture west from modeled.

I'm so worried about the dryslot, though. These things seem to have a way to sniff us out. WGAL predictor model has HBG at 2.6 inches post event. While it's not the most accurate of technologies, it shows a nice dryslot set up between 3:00 AM until the event is pretty much over.

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Here is some of discussion on the storm.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1151 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE QPF`S FALL IN THE .20"-.40" RANGE.

FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE-OMEGA ALIGNMENT ARGUES FOR SNOW-

WATER RATIOS AROUND 15-1 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW WHICH SHUD BE

BETWEEN AROUND 6PM TUES EVE THROUGH 3AM WED MORNING. THIS ALL

CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD 2-4 PERHAPS 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL.

AN ALMOST TOTAL ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND

ANOMALY AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS

SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A MAINLY NUISANCE SNOWFALL.

Is that what we have been having the last couple years nuisance snowfalls? :axe:

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Here is some of discussion on the storm.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1151 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE QPF`S FALL IN THE .20"-.40" RANGE.

FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE-OMEGA ALIGNMENT ARGUES FOR SNOW-

WATER RATIOS AROUND 15-1 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW WHICH SHUD BE

BETWEEN AROUND 6PM TUES EVE THROUGH 3AM WED MORNING. THIS ALL

CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD 2-4 PERHAPS 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL.

AN ALMOST TOTAL ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND

ANOMALY AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS

SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A MAINLY NUISANCE SNOWFALL.

I really dislike state college

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Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time.

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Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time.

I, too, was under the heavy weight of a WWA on Saturday and while we only got 2 inches, it seemed warranted. It snowed off-and-on pretty hard most of the midday.

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Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time.

They issued one for the entire CWA just five minutes ago, lol.

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I, too, was under the heavy weight of a WWA on Saturday and while we only got 2 inches, it seemed warranted. It snowed off-and-on pretty hard most of the midday.

See, that's part of the problem, too. We had 30 minutes of snow from 8am - 830am, then intervals of clouds and sun the remainder of the day. On 2 occassions, we had a 5 minute snow shower. That was it. CTP covers such a large area, with great differences in sensible weather. Huge range in conditions to forecast for, especially in a situation such as unfolding tomorrow. There may be a huge area under their jurisdiction that receives advisory criteria snow, but there may another area that gets much less. Heck, they might even have some areas that get warning snows as well.

Easy to sit our computers and say they should do this or that, much more difficult when they are the ones under the gun.

I will agree that in general, they are usually slower to pull the trigger than neighboring offices.

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Issued at: 3:14 PM EST 1/10/11, expires at: 11:15 PM EST 1/10/11

Winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm Tuesday to noon est Wednesday,

The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow, which is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday to noon est Wednesday.

Location, northwest mountains and laurel highlands.

Precipitation type, snow.

Accumulations, 3 to 6 inches.

Timing, Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Winds, 10 to 15 mph.

Impacts, snow covered and slippery roads. Northwest flow and lake enhanced snow showers are expected to follow for later in the week.

Precautionary/preparedness actions,

A winter weather advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Motorists should be especially cautious on bridges and overpasses, where slippery spots develop first. Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at, weather.gov/statecollege.

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