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12z model thread


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The whole run of the GFS just blows chunks. Not even a hint of a snow threat. Looks to be warm in the mid/long range.

I live in york, pa average snowfall is 33 inches, I got an inch of snow and its going on mid jan, this winter does blow now were going to be in a drought. ohh well last winter had 88 inches of snow.

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I don't mind the GFS either.....precip trending stronger?

60hr qpf for the last three runs at this time....

00z @72

gfs_p60_072m.gif

06z@66

gfs_p60_066m.gif

12z@60

gfs_p60_060m.gif

Jersey, CT, Western parts of MA and Northering RI seem to beneft from the newer run...

No...the 12Z has less moisture than either the 0Z or 6Z unless you see something that I don't see.

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I don't know where you are located but in most areas it is clear there is more moisture. Some very few areas may have trended less but not drastically so.

I don't know what I was looking at...It looks like the graphics appear to have changed from what I saw before. Sorry for the confusion there...Like I said -- must've been that I wasn't seeing something correctly. Time for new glasses!

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...and, of course yesterday's 12Z looked d@mn cold throughout the 384 hour period. 18Z yesterday and 00Z, 12Z today looked similar, a colder look, but not as dramatic as 12Z yesterday's did. Make of all that what one will.

And then today's runs look warmer, as they did two days ago, and before that they were colder ... My point being - this pattern, I wonder if the models have any idea what to consistently evaluate and what to give weight to.

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And then today's runs look warmer, as they did two days ago, and before that they were colder ... My point being - this pattern, I wonder if the models have any idea what to consistently evaluate and what to give weight to.

Yes, I understand that...kind of figured that was your point for the most part, not trying to disagree. Sorry if it came off that way. I guess I was basically just hammering home the same points. Typically, I thought the GFS is not too bad in the longer ranges in terms of the overall longwave pattern. Not talking fantasy 300+ hour storms, but the general flow. However, it has seemed to go all over the place lately. Even the ensemble mean to a point has done that, though as expected it's generally more "stable" looking.

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Yes, I understand that...kind of figured that was your point for the most part, not trying to disagree. Sorry if it came off that way. I guess I was basically just hammering home the same points. Typically, I thought the GFS is not too bad in the longer ranges in terms of the overall longwave pattern. Not talking fantasy 300+ hour storms, but the general flow. However, it has seemed to go all over the place lately. Even the ensemble mean to a point has done that, though as expected it's generally more "stable" looking.

My regrets for not being more specific and making myself clear.

On a related note - I really think that the models, the mets, and those of us (like me) who really know nothing, are having a hard time this winter looking at teleconnections and patterns, since the set up has been somewhat unique. Actually - been fun playing the jig saw weather puzzle.

Anyway, for me personally, I hope that we get a couple more decent shots at something fun (as I still have another road trip/snow chase on my radar). In the meantime, I'm hoping it stays at least at climo or less ... (12z GFS notwithstanding)

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