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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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If you look at the clown maps from the NAM, it has around 12:1 ratios over the areas I mentioned - NE NJ, NYC, Westchester County.

http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif

http://www.wxcaster....PRECIP_84HR.gif

I just said that in the banter thread, I believe ratios will be better than 10-1. with around an in of precip you could get an additional 2-4 in on top of the reg conversion of 10-1 ratios if these verfiy. Should be interesting to watch unfold.

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Great post.

I think Central LI is going to get crushed with 12-16" snowfall.

I think we'll do well up here in westchester too given that qpf isn't nearly as prolific as C LI on east, ratios will likely be better. Obv I doubt we will get to the 12-16 level but 8-10 maybe 12 wouldn't surprise me. I'm also like 15 or so miles NE of you...

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Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet.

That is encouraging as we are getting into the SREF's deadly time range. By tonight's 0z runs forecasters should consider giving more weight to the higher-res models like the NAM/MM5/ARW/NMM and the SREFs seeing that they pretty much nailed the mesoscale features of the boxing day blizzard.

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Here's the SREF precip a bit further out into the storm..1" gets back into Nassau it looks like. A definite bump north and west from 09z.

That actually doesn't look tremendously different than the 12z GFS for the same time period. The 15z SREF isopleths are slightly further west than the GFS.

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Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet.

Some huge ARW hits in there, wow! Probably too wet, NMM looks more reasonable. But the mean could increase a bit more over the next few cycles as the spread shrinks. 1" likely to WLI and SWCT at least.

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yeah surface doesnt look that much improved...in fact theres less QPF despite H5 being more amped.

Will see how it plays out

It catches up at 36 and the height field seems more amplified along the coast compared to it's 12z run...odd.

We will have to see how this plays out. Like you said, if the trough amplifies too much it may be a tick too late.

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