jconsor Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you look at the clown maps from the NAM, it has around 12:1 ratios over the areas I mentioned - NE NJ, NYC, Westchester County. http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif http://www.wxcaster....PRECIP_84HR.gif I just said that in the banter thread, I believe ratios will be better than 10-1. with around an in of precip you could get an additional 2-4 in on top of the reg conversion of 10-1 ratios if these verfiy. Should be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM high resolution snowfall maps. Enjoy The WRF-NMM is a great model right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Major changes on the 18 hour NAM with the height field. It's a little less amplified on the east coast (could argue for a further E solution and less northward tug). Also closed off at H5 over Northern MO which I have seen no model do thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM high resolution snowfall maps. Enjoy I'm guessing that .60 - .75 of that will actually verify given the range at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Great post. I think Central LI is going to get crushed with 12-16" snowfall. I think we'll do well up here in westchester too given that qpf isn't nearly as prolific as C LI on east, ratios will likely be better. Obv I doubt we will get to the 12-16 level but 8-10 maybe 12 wouldn't surprise me. I'm also like 15 or so miles NE of you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM high resolution snowfall maps. Enjoy Remerge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is actually more amplified now through 24 hrs. Energy is a little slower..but digging more than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet. That is encouraging as we are getting into the SREF's deadly time range. By tonight's 0z runs forecasters should consider giving more weight to the higher-res models like the NAM/MM5/ARW/NMM and the SREFs seeing that they pretty much nailed the mesoscale features of the boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is actually more amplified now through 24 hrs. Energy is a little slower..but digging more than the 12z run. agreed, closed low as well which will only help with amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 orientation of the lead vort is much better, on the 12z it was aligned further e-w and escaped to the east rather quickly on the 18z the same vort is more n-s oriented which could lead to a longer and more amplified system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Digging more than both it's 06 and 12 z run through 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the SREF precip a bit further out into the storm..1" gets back into Nassau it looks like. A definite bump north and west from 09z. That actually doesn't look tremendously different than the 12z GFS for the same time period. The 15z SREF isopleths are slightly further west than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's a little slower with the H5 energy which may allow some escaping of the surface low to the northeast...we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's a little slower with the H5 energy which may allow some escaping of the surface low to the northeast...we will see. I think this will be the same if not more W with the eventual low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet. Some huge ARW hits in there, wow! Probably too wet, NMM looks more reasonable. But the mean could increase a bit more over the next few cycles as the spread shrinks. 1" likely to WLI and SWCT at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 digging much more, looks good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 signature at 36 hours is one of the most beautiful things I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM high resolution snowfall maps. Enjoy 15" to 20" in Monmouth County, Im I dreaming again? Probibly, but Mt. holly's updated snow map kinda supports this with less snow, but still reallt good amouts. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe not, too slow with the trough through 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe not, too slow with the trough through 33 hours. yeah surface doesnt look that much improved...in fact theres less QPF despite H5 being more amped. Will see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Maybe not, too slow with the trough through 33 hours. It catches up at 36 and the height field seems more amplified along the coast compared to it's 12z run...odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's definitely a tick northwest at 39 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just got out of an OKX briefing for emergency managers...Upton says a 10-15 inch snowfall for eastern Nassau and all of Suffolk county looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's definitely a tick northwest at 39 hrs H5 really looks a heck of a lot more amplified than 12z. I've gotta think there is going to be some improvement to the west side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah surface doesnt look that much improved...in fact theres less QPF despite H5 being more amped. Will see how it plays out It catches up at 36 and the height field seems more amplified along the coast compared to it's 12z run...odd. We will have to see how this plays out. Like you said, if the trough amplifies too much it may be a tick too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upper level low has definitely dug more and shifted west, just not translating that much different on the surface. I wonder what explains that?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Goes nuts at 42 hrs...precip field is further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The QPF is less (lost the big QPF bomb) but the shield is northwest of it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 less QPF than 12z just looking at H5 i would have expected the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upper level low has definitely dug more and shifted west, just not translating that much different on the surface. I wonder what explains that?... Upper level energy is slower so the surface low can escape a hair northeast before being captured back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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