Snow_Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mt holly and uptons snowfall maps look real good right now....thats what i would go with For anyone who's interested... Mt. Holly http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tombo says that the euro was 25-50 miles further west. H5 trended better than previous runs. It was also a little more amplifed. The reason why there wasn't more QPF was because the storm didn't bomb out quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 trended better than previous runs. It was also a little more amplifed. The reason why there wasn't more QPF was because the storm didn't bomb out quick enough. H5 has not been translating down to the surface, which is the main problem with some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 has not been translating down to the surface, which is the main problem with the models. Well, yeah, but that's because it's transitioning from a primary to a coastal low. It's doesn't happen instantaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ARW nailed the 12/26 qpf. Was not overdone at all. Although it may be just out of it's range now. Under 24hrs maybe is best. But the NAM being very wet, the GFS and Euro beefing up a bit and the high-res ARW a big hit does perhapslean towards more like 1" in immediate NYC boroughs, Monmouth County and extreme NE NJ, and then a huge hit of 1.5" or better out on LI. Looks to line up well with a 10-12" storm for NYC and NE Coastal NJ and up to 15-18" on LI. I am not at all for making simplistic judgments along the lines of "Hi-res models are always too wet", etc. Every numerical model has its positives/negatives, and it should be analyzed taking into consideration its strengths/weaknesses. The developers of the high res non-hydrostatic models didn't parameterize the model to be overtly "wet". Certainly, under some circumstances, the non-hydrostatic nature of the model can result in some ugly positive feedbacks into the model which grossly "overdo" certain features, but often times the model can be quite accurate with its representation of certain meteorological features. In a storm of such small scale with microscale/mesoscale features playing such a prominent role, high res models will be able to capture certain features better than the global models--global models aren't made to capture such features since too much noise would end up in the analysis. That said, this event is still out of the ideal range of those models and I certainly would not give them high consideration yet. Still, I have seen a lot of folks "tossing" and ignoring some of the mesoscale non-hydrostatic models for some reason with this event, and I am not really sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I've always thought it'd make a lot more sense if Upton annexed Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth counties into their CWA. We're about 30 air miles from the center of NYC and almost double that to the center of PHL. disagree. Monmouth definitely is much different than some of the other NJ counties. I also think Somerset also is very different than NYC...take the last storm for instance where we didnt really get above 13-14 inches but those to the north much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, yeah, but that's because it's transitioning from a primary to a coastal low. It's doesn't happen instantaneously. Transitions like this are extremely tricky for models to comprehend. If the models are off by a seemingly innocuous 30 miles, then that could be the difference for millions of people in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Euro and GFS are both encouraging in they are more amplified, but overall the QPF output remains similar to .75"+ for the city, while the more meso-scale models are higher in totals, well some of them are. Overall a decent 6-10" call for the city seems to be accurate at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone west of the city....my call right now is for Bergen, Passaic and Essex counties is going to get dumped on by banding. The general consensus is not that far off from the boxing day event in terms of QPF and with less wind to worry about...those areas should see higher ratios. I would not be shocked if someone in that part of NJ ended up with over 18" and perhaps even more than that. People don't realize that the major global models are not the best at picking out banding. The high res models and the NAM should be a flag that the QPF is being underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 disagree. Monmouth definitely is much different than some of the other NJ counties. I also think Somerset also is very different than NYC...take the last storm for instance where we didnt really get above 13-14 inches but those to the north much more. that difference in climate among the counties is not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone west of the city....my call right now is for Bergen, Passaic and Essex counties is going to get dumped on by banding. The general consensus is not that far off from the boxing day event in terms of QPF and with less wind to worry about...those areas should see higher ratios. I would not be shocked if someone in that part of NJ ended up with over 18" and perhaps even more than that. People don't realize that the major global models are not the best at picking out banding. The high res models and the NAM should be a flag that the QPF is being underdone. The usual suspects., ie - West Milford NJ, which only lies 25 air miles northwest of NYC with good elevations, and tends to over-perform versus the modeling time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 disagree. Monmouth definitely is much different than some of the other NJ counties. I also think Somerset also is very different than NYC...take the last storm for instance where we didnt really get above 13-14 inches but those to the north much more. I see what you're saying, but at least in my area of Monmouth county we are 15 minutes from Staten island, and you can see the skyline looking across raritan bay from the hills. Weatherwise my town usually does the same as NYC in marginal storms I'd say 80% of the time or more. we do just as well in any miller-B storm I can remember. I've been to Philly 2 times in my life for what thats worth lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 dtk on the hi-res models over in the Mid-Atlantic thread about the high QPF bias: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8168-tuesday-snow-thread-continued/page__view__findpost__p__262844 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see what you're saying, but at least in my area of Monmouth county we are 15 minutes from Staten island, and you can see the skyline looking across raritan bay from the hills. Weatherwise my town usually does the same as NYC in marginal storms I'd say 80% of the time or more. we do just as well in any miller-B storm I can remember. I've been to Philly 2 times in my life for what thats worth lol. That must seem a bit weird to get your forecasts from PHL. One thing that has no bearing on any good meteorological, climatological or geo-political points, but I think is worth pointing out, is that relative distances from NYC and PHL is not the same as relative distances from Mt Holly and Upton, especially with regard to Upton being well to the ene of NYC (not in NYC for at least 15 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That must seem a bit weird to get your forecasts from PHL. One thing that has no bearing on any good meteorological, climatological or geo-political points, but I think is worth pointing out, is that relative distances from NYC and PHL is not the same as relative distances from Mt Holly and Upton, especially with regard to Upton being well to the ene of NYC (not in NYC for at least 15 years). well it isnt really because it comes from Mount Holly, and I also see how much further north the cwa extends too..I rarely go to Philly, for one reason, because there is no easy way to get there in under 1hr 45mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton AFD- Short Term Forecast Snippet (if not already posted)- Looks like they're going with a GFS/SREF/Euro Blend- Good Call. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH That's from last nights discussion..the time stamp at the top is updated because they updated the Near Term. By the way, good afternoon weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's from last nights discussion..the time stamp at the top is updated because they updated the Near Term. By the way, good afternoon weenies Thanks, just deleted it. Overall, it seems that the discussion won't change that much, since the Euro and GFS are similar in QPF, a little higher yes, but generally still a 6-12" event. Good afternoon to you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The RUC continues to trend more amplified in it's "medium range" hours...definitely in more agreement with the NAM than anything. Might actually be a hair more amplified with it's height lines with the trough in Plains...and also higher heights on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's from last nights discussion..the time stamp at the top is updated because they updated the Near Term. By the way, good afternoon weenies How was your 4 hour slumber? And to keep it from being OT, what are your thoughts with the latest guidance in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 15z SREF's have ticked northwest and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How was your 4 hour slumber? And to keep it from being OT, what are your thoughts with the latest guidance in? Dude, I barely slept. It was awful. I think there's a slow convergence occurring for a track between last nights 00z NAM and 00z GFS. The NAM ticked barely east at 06z..but somehow went back NW at 12z..I think it's just being stubborn. The GFS keeps coming a bit northwest. I think ultimately NYC will probably find themselves near 0.75-1.00" QPF...which in it's own right is a major snowstorm..probably along the lines of 6-12" with higher amounts in banding. But there is the potential for it to slide to the extreme of either direction, we've seen it before. The extreme to the right would be a 3-6/4-8" event..while the extreme to the left would be a more significant 12+" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the SREF precip a bit further out into the storm..1" gets back into Nassau it looks like. A definite bump north and west from 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dude, I barely slept. It was awful. I think there's a slow convergence occurring for a track between last nights 00z NAM and 00z GFS. The NAM ticked barely east at 06z..but somehow went back NW at 12z..I think it's just being stubborn. The GFS keeps coming a bit northwest. I think ultimately NYC will probably find themselves near 0.75-1.00" QPF...which in it's own right is a major snowstorm..probably along the lines of 6-12" with higher amounts in banding. But there is the potential for it to slide to the extreme of either direction, we've seen it before. The extreme to the right would be a 3-6/4-8" event..while the extreme to the left would be a more significant 12+" event. That extreme is worrisome, especially in banding because someone could really get socked, and maybe unexpectedly so given the 6-12 in forecast, which btw I completely agree with at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize how much better they were. Almost all of these are better..and the mean is way more amplified and more wet. will pass inside the BM looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does anyone really think the ratios over NE NJ/NYC/Westchester County are going to be 10:1, like OKX is forecasting? I'd go more like 12 or 13 to 1, given the temps between 850 and 1000 mb. http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does anyone really think the ratios over NE NJ/NYC/Westchester County are going to be 10:1, like OKX is forecasting? I'd go more like 12 or 13 to 1, given the temps between 850 and 1000 mb. I just said that in the banter thread, I believe ratios will be better than 10-1. with around an in of precip you could get an additional 2-4 in on top of the reg conversion of 10-1 ratios if these verfiy. Should be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-NMM high resolution snowfall maps. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dude, I barely slept. It was awful. I think there's a slow convergence occurring for a track between last nights 00z NAM and 00z GFS. The NAM ticked barely east at 06z..but somehow went back NW at 12z..I think it's just being stubborn. The GFS keeps coming a bit northwest. I think ultimately NYC will probably find themselves near 0.75-1.00" QPF...which in it's own right is a major snowstorm..probably along the lines of 6-12" with higher amounts in banding. But there is the potential for it to slide to the extreme of either direction, we've seen it before. The extreme to the right would be a 3-6/4-8" event..while the extreme to the left would be a more significant 12+" event. Great post. I think Central LI is going to get crushed with 12-16" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM out to 18h http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06_county018.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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