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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!!

can you post a link or map, i show it only out to 12 hous on NCEP

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The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!!

NMM is further east than the ARW. Tonight's run should be really interesting.

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middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s.

mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. :weight_lift:

Yeah I've always thought it'd make a lot more sense if Upton annexed Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth counties into their CWA. We're about 30 air miles from the center of NYC and almost double that to the center of PHL.

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Why is it wrong because you deemed it to be so? You act like it's travesty that the NWS had the nerve to reorganize the CWA of the WFOs. I could be wrong, but I believe the CWAs are organized based on population size so that one WFO wasn't forecasting for a large pop. area. I think heard something about that during one of the 5 billion lectures given by one of OUN's forecasters I've sat through. lol

You are correct in this, as Middlesex county has a population if 750,000, and might be too large for upton, as they have maybe 14 million people to forecast for.

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The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more).

I remember when we had the big rain event with the remnants of Nichole the high res were supporting 10" rain amounts and of course nothing like that verified but it was great on picking up where that fire house squall line blew threw.

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I might be hyperbolic there, but I generally don't trust their absolute QPF values, but use them to get the relative areas right.

Oh, okay. Thanks.

I have heard they tend to overdue the absolute values, but I was shocked to see by how much.

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middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s.

mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. :weight_lift:

Yeah I've always thought it'd make a lot more sense if Upton annexed Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth counties into their CWA. We're about 30 air miles from the center of NYC and almost double that to the center of PHL.

Wow, never knew Middlesex used to be in the NYC CWA (only been following NWS stuff since the internet blew up in the mid-90s and it's been in Mt. Holly since then). If there's one absolutely key reason why at least Middlesex should be in the NYC CWA, IMO, it's that Middlesex is the only county that actually borders the 5 boroughs of NYC that isn't part of the NYC CWA (we border Staten Island) - it would seem really odd to have any of the other counties that are contiguous with NYC not be part of the NYC CWA. FWIW, I would also add Somerset, Morris and Sussex to the NYC CWA and it's a coin flip as to whether the far western NJ counties of Warren and Hunterdon should be in with Philly or NYC - they're certainly considered part of the NYC region from a media perspective - as is Monmouth, with Ocean being kind of split.

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ARW nailed the 12/26 qpf. Was not overdone at all. Although it may be just out of it's range now. Under 24hrs maybe is best. But the NAM being very wet, the GFS and Euro beefing up a bit and the high-res ARW a big hit does perhapslean towards more like 1" in immediate NYC boroughs, Monmouth County and extreme NE NJ, and then a huge hit of 1.5" or better out on LI. Looks to line up well with a 10-12" storm for NYC and NE Coastal NJ and up to 15-18" on LI.

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