TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!! can you post a link or map, i show it only out to 12 hous on NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!! NMM is further east than the ARW. Tonight's run should be really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How accurate is the arw and the nmm? What kinda verification scores do these high res models have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s. mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. Yeah I've always thought it'd make a lot more sense if Upton annexed Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth counties into their CWA. We're about 30 air miles from the center of NYC and almost double that to the center of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 can you post a link or map, i show it only out to 12 hous on NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JMA is a big hit. Shows near 1 QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why is it wrong because you deemed it to be so? You act like it's travesty that the NWS had the nerve to reorganize the CWA of the WFOs. I could be wrong, but I believe the CWAs are organized based on population size so that one WFO wasn't forecasting for a large pop. area. I think heard something about that during one of the 5 billion lectures given by one of OUN's forecasters I've sat through. lol You are correct in this, as Middlesex county has a population if 750,000, and might be too large for upton, as they have maybe 14 million people to forecast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more). I remember when we had the big rain event with the remnants of Nichole the high res were supporting 10" rain amounts and of course nothing like that verified but it was great on picking up where that fire house squall line blew threw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more). Wow, they really inflate the QPF by that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, they really inflate the QPF by that much? I might be hyperbolic there, but I generally don't trust their absolute QPF values, but use them to get the relative areas right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12z Euro is definitely a bit more amplified than the 0z Euro. Stronger closed 5H low in the Ohio Valley, and slightly higher heights along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z euro out to 36 hrs...light snow up to phl...1016 low just east of nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 42 mod snow from phl-nyc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro is coming in slightly more amped at H5 at 42 vs. 54 last night on the 0Z. Edit - Oops - sorry, i didn't realize Allsnow was doing the pbp... I will not clutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 mod snow for nnj and heavy snow nyc east...LI getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .50+ for people west of nyc....nyc close to .75.......nw jersey is .25+.....preciep wise looks like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I might be hyperbolic there, but I generally don't trust their absolute QPF values, but use them to get the relative areas right. Oh, okay. Thanks. I have heard they tend to overdue the absolute values, but I was shocked to see by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 EC Day 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 from central LI east it 1 inch+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Euro intensified the CCB, but didn't really move it that much further west. The QPF orientation has an odd diamond-like shape. There is an area of 1.75+ just SE of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s. mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. Yeah I've always thought it'd make a lot more sense if Upton annexed Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth counties into their CWA. We're about 30 air miles from the center of NYC and almost double that to the center of PHL. Wow, never knew Middlesex used to be in the NYC CWA (only been following NWS stuff since the internet blew up in the mid-90s and it's been in Mt. Holly since then). If there's one absolutely key reason why at least Middlesex should be in the NYC CWA, IMO, it's that Middlesex is the only county that actually borders the 5 boroughs of NYC that isn't part of the NYC CWA (we border Staten Island) - it would seem really odd to have any of the other counties that are contiguous with NYC not be part of the NYC CWA. FWIW, I would also add Somerset, Morris and Sussex to the NYC CWA and it's a coin flip as to whether the far western NJ counties of Warren and Hunterdon should be in with Philly or NYC - they're certainly considered part of the NYC region from a media perspective - as is Monmouth, with Ocean being kind of split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mt holly and uptons snowfall maps look real good right now....thats what i would go with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 By the way, not sure if it's the banter thread or what, but these threads have improved a lot over the last 2-3 days. Good job, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what's the euro long range forecast looking like? Is the torch still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what's the euro long range forecast looking like? Is the torch still there? it's only out to 108, but so far, no torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mt holly and uptons snowfall maps look real good right now....thats what i would go with Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ARW nailed the 12/26 qpf. Was not overdone at all. Although it may be just out of it's range now. Under 24hrs maybe is best. But the NAM being very wet, the GFS and Euro beefing up a bit and the high-res ARW a big hit does perhapslean towards more like 1" in immediate NYC boroughs, Monmouth County and extreme NE NJ, and then a huge hit of 1.5" or better out on LI. Looks to line up well with a 10-12" storm for NYC and NE Coastal NJ and up to 15-18" on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can you post? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tombo says that the euro was 25-50 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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