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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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Exactly..with the boxing day event..we had historical banding that was capable of dropping 3-5" per hour snowfall. Where I am in NE NJ we were right under that intense band and finished with 2.503" QPF and 23.0" of snow as per a report from a trained spotter. That's only slightly higher than a 9-1 ratio with temps that supported 14-1. This time around the temps are not as good but with less wind we could see 10-1 or even 11-1. Thus someone could actually end up with more snow in NJ than they did with the last event. As far as east of the city goes...I would expect that the higher temps will outweigh the lower wind.

we COULD see 10-1? I think at least 10-1 and areas will likely be around 12 or 13-1 in the colder/favored areas.

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Yes, please stop being a wise guy noreaster85, monmouth/middlsex/morris/and the eastern part of somerset counties have always posted in the NYC metro thread.

This is not a NYC thread...this is a NYC/Philadelphia thread...however for this particular event the mods have chosen to seperate by CWA. If you have a problem with that I suggest you take it up with one of them.

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This is not a NYC thread...this is a NYC/Philadelphia thread...however for this particular event the mods have chosen to seperate by CWA. If you have a problem with that I suggest you take it up with one of them.

I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here.

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The definition is at least 3 straight hours of heavy snow, <1/4 mi visibility, and winds gusting over 35mph...we will not see that anywhere in the region with this storm

I don't think it has to be heavy falling snow. And I remember some vague terminology about visibilities frequently below 1/4 mile. I know it's been discussed ad nauseum.

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I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here.

I agree. I had a look at the UKMET and its very east, I dont know what it is with that model this year.

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I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here.

Nobody said you couldn't post here. For this particular event I think what the mods did makes perfect sense because for a grand majority of the Mt. Holly CWA...the effects of the system will be quite less than what Upton is going to see. Of course for those that live close to the border its going to be a tough call.

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I don't think it has to be heavy falling snow. And I remember some vague terminology about visibilities frequently below 1/4 mile. I know it's been discussed ad nauseum.

I believe you are are correct about the falling part actually. I guess for our area though 1/4 mi/heavy snow are usually hand in hand. we dont get ground blizzards. I think it is the hourly obs 3 in a row for vis.

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Nobody said you couldn't post here. For this particular event I think what the mods did makes perfect sense because for a grand majority of the Mt. Holly CWA...the effects of the system will be quite less than what Upton is going to see. Of course for those that live close to the border its going to be a tough call.

middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s.

mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. :weight_lift:

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So this is going to be a heavy wet snow, huh?

Meaning that shoveling it is going to be a b*tch.

say it aint so...where the hell is this snow going to go? half the roads are still blocked by snow piles...this is gonna be awful...

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The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!! 850's below freezing for everyone the entire storm.

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