Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Exactly..with the boxing day event..we had historical banding that was capable of dropping 3-5" per hour snowfall. Where I am in NE NJ we were right under that intense band and finished with 2.503" QPF and 23.0" of snow as per a report from a trained spotter. That's only slightly higher than a 9-1 ratio with temps that supported 14-1. This time around the temps are not as good but with less wind we could see 10-1 or even 11-1. Thus someone could actually end up with more snow in NJ than they did with the last event. As far as east of the city goes...I would expect that the higher temps will outweigh the lower wind. we COULD see 10-1? I think at least 10-1 and areas will likely be around 12 or 13-1 in the colder/favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS ensembles are further west. Further west than the OP or further west than they were at 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS ensembles are further west. Can someone post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know, my point is for this storm these areas are more similar to the NYC area. Yes, please stop being a wise guy noreaster85, monmouth/middlsex/morris/and the eastern part of somerset counties have always posted in the NYC metro thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Check the official definition by the NWS of a Blizzard Warning. All that is required is a 3 hour event of greater than 30MPH gusts with snow. The definition is at least 3 straight hours of heavy snow, <1/4 mi visibility, and winds gusting over 35mph...we will not see that anywhere in the region with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM is a bit west of 0Z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, please stop being a wise guy noreaster85, monmouth/middlsex/morris/and the eastern part of somerset counties have always posted in the NYC metro thread. This is not a NYC thread...this is a NYC/Philadelphia thread...however for this particular event the mods have chosen to seperate by CWA. If you have a problem with that I suggest you take it up with one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The definition is at least 3 straight hours of heavy snow, <1/4 mi visibility, and winds gusting over 35mph...we will not see that anywhere in the region with this storm Not anywhere?? We shall see if your forecast verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is not a NYC thread...this is a NYC/Philadelphia thread...however for this particular event the mods have chosen to seperate by CWA. If you have a problem with that I suggest you take it up with one of them. I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The definition is at least 3 straight hours of heavy snow, <1/4 mi visibility, and winds gusting over 35mph...we will not see that anywhere in the region with this storm I don't think it has to be heavy falling snow. And I remember some vague terminology about visibilities frequently below 1/4 mile. I know it's been discussed ad nauseum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12z GEFS mean is directly on top of the 12z GFS op. Not sure where someone is getting west. The operational is deeper, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12z GEFS mean is directly on top of the 12z GFS op. Not sure where someone is getting west. The operational is deeper, though. I think the comparison was being made with previous runs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here. I agree. I had a look at the UKMET and its very east, I dont know what it is with that model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think they meant it literally, more as in general terms. Since I am only a few miles from the Upton CWA, I'm going to post here. Nobody said you couldn't post here. For this particular event I think what the mods did makes perfect sense because for a grand majority of the Mt. Holly CWA...the effects of the system will be quite less than what Upton is going to see. Of course for those that live close to the border its going to be a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the comparison was being made with previous runs ensembles. That's the same too. The track really hasn't changed in like 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not anywhere?? We shall see if your forecast verifies. There is hardly a low level jet, the low is strengthening fairly rapidly, but nothing crazy, and we dont have a crazy pressure gradient especially with the primary low pressure trough hanging west as the coastal takes over passing our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z ensembles are further west than the 0z ensembles. 12z ensembles at 48: 0z ensembles at 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it has to be heavy falling snow. And I remember some vague terminology about visibilities frequently below 1/4 mile. I know it's been discussed ad nauseum. I believe you are are correct about the falling part actually. I guess for our area though 1/4 mi/heavy snow are usually hand in hand. we dont get ground blizzards. I think it is the hourly obs 3 in a row for vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So this is going to be a heavy wet snow, huh? Meaning that shoveling it is going to be a b*tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nobody said you couldn't post here. For this particular event I think what the mods did makes perfect sense because for a grand majority of the Mt. Holly CWA...the effects of the system will be quite less than what Upton is going to see. Of course for those that live close to the border its going to be a tough call. middlesex county borders new york. there was a time when it used to be in the upton cwa.... which only makes 100% sense. but then they discarded common sense and dumped us in the mt. holly office back in the 90s. mt. holly includes zones all the way down in maryland. no self respecting middlesex county resident is hanging out in the philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So this is going to be a heavy wet snow, huh? Meaning that shoveling it is going to be a b*tch. say it aint so...where the hell is this snow going to go? half the roads are still blocked by snow piles...this is gonna be awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z ensembles are further west than the 0z ensembles. 12z ensembles at 48: 0z ensembles at 60: Yeah, a good reference point is to look at NJ. The .5" QPF comes pretty close to dividing half/half of NJ, while the 0Z run does not. The position of the Low is roughly the same, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Also something to note, the 12z GFS has a much better developed CCB than the 6z GFS. It's evident just based on the 6-hr precip from 42-48 on the 12z versus 48-54 on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the MM5 total precip for the storm. This is in MM, times the total by .01 This model can have a slight progressive bias beyond 36 hours so its runs tonight and tomorrow are its money zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the MM5 total precip for the storm. This is in MM, times the total by .01 This model can have a slight progressive bias beyond 36 hours so its runs tonight and tomorrow are its money zone. i dont believe that is in MM, but rather hundredths of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off the central coast of NJ of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!! 850's below freezing for everyone the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Correct 100's of an inch and its dry in NE NJ .35 where all globels show at least .50. luckily MM5 is still in its crappy range. It's really good INSIDE 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i dont believe that is in MM, but rather hundredths of an inch. sorry, typo, but the math is correct, multiply it by .01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MM5 is in hundredths of an inch. The pink that says 150.5 is 1.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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