Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287 The NAM is an outlier at the moment in terms of strength/QPF. Best at this time to take a comprimise of 0.75"-1.25" with the higher amounts North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last year the NAM was deadly inside 48hrs. We are now inside the NAM's good range so its solution should definitly be considered. All in all...0.75"-1.25" highest amounts North and East of NYC still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The boxing day storm was captured by a cutoff low which dragged it back towards the coast. Then the storm became vertically stacked the next day as it impacted NE. Thank you. I realize the Boxing Day storm hung around for an impressive amount of time but it certainly wasn't more than 18 hours at best. What caused that storm to scoot out after only that much time? I guess I am searching for the answer that describes what needs to happen for a storm to last longer than 24 hours. What causes a stall and what is the needed amount of downstream blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287 We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thank you. I realize the Boxing Day storm hung around for an impressive amount of time but it certainly wasn't more than 18 hours at best. What caused that storm to scoot out after only that much time? I guess I am searching for the answer that describes what needs to happen for a storm to last longer than 24 hours. eventually the system became vertically stacked and snowed itself out over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west. i think this forum is best suited to also include Middlesex and Monmouth for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 STUPID Question..Why is 12/26 called the "Boxing" day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MM5 might be interesting today. It's not in its really good range yet, but it might be something to pay attention to, to see if it stays as wrapped up as last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what do folks thing about strong winds on the coast especially? Any chance of blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 eventually the system became vertically stacked and snowed itself out over NE. Got it. So the blocking would have had to be strong enough so that when it becomes vertically stacked and snows itself out, it happens further south and west allowing it to remain in this area longer than the boxing day storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GGEM moved west from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 STUPID Question..Why is 12/26 called the "Boxing" day storm? Boxing day is an English Holiday celebrated on 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think this forum is best suited to also include Middlesex and Monmouth for this storm. For this event...the forum has been split by CWA. For those counties checkout the Mt. Holly version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what do folks thing about strong winds on the coast especially? Any chance of blizzard warnings? The short duration of this event will likely prevent blizzard warnings. The winds will also be considerably less strong than the blizzard...maybe some 45 mph gusts along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what do folks thing about strong winds on the coast especially? Any chance of blizzard warnings? Definilty although the system is not anywhere close to as impressive as the 12/26 event. Some people may still end up with higher totals though thanks to slightly higher ratios of the banding can persist over one area as it did with the boxing day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Boxing day is an English Holiday celebrated on 12/26 December 26th is Boxing Day (Australian/Canadian Holiday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The short duration of this event will likely prevent blizzard warnings. The winds will also be considerably less strong than the blizzard...maybe some 45 mph gusts along the coast. Check the official definition by the NWS of a Blizzard Warning. All that is required is a 3 hour event of greater than 30MPH gusts with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GGEM moved west from 00z Yes, getting close, similar to the GFS touch less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wasn't aware of that. I thought it was NYC Metro, much of which is in Mt hollys forecasting area but not in the Philly metro, ie, Somerset, Middlesex, Morris, the shore areas etc. We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For this event...the forum has been split by CWA. For those counties checkout the Mt. Holly version. I know, my point is for this storm these areas are more similar to the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 STUPID Question..Why is 12/26 called the "Boxing" day storm? http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Boxing+Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In my opinion the GFS's QPF and 850 MB dynamics don't line up and the GFS has been the far east outlier for some time Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The short duration of this event will likely prevent blizzard warnings. The winds will also be considerably less strong than the blizzard...maybe some 45 mph gusts along the coast. High winds certainly won't be anywhere near as widespread as on 12/26. 995mb low<<<<970mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know, my point is for this storm these areas are more similar to the NYC area. I agree with you...but thats not the way the forum has been setup for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287 GFS has .5-.75 extending all the way back to the western fringe of NJ. Keep in mind it trended wetter, that solution can continue to deviate. What people need to realize is that duration is not a huge factor. The majority of the accumulating snows in the blizzard occurred in a matter of 8-12 hours. What is most important is that at 500mb the pattern is closed back over Ohio. With a primary cutting, a secondary development is favored further west, and supported aloft. I believe this is why the GFS has adjusted a tad west. Dynamics are good with high omega and strong uvv's. Although further east might see the best qpf, further west might benefit from enhanced ratios and higher elevation. Remember although models depicted NYC and east getting the highest QPF values during the blizzard areas within 30 miles to the W of NYC received the high amounts also because of banding and forcing, regardless of QPF, which can happen again. Also with 850 and 700 over or close to LI you always have to be concerned about the best banding being west, so I urge cautiion with forecasting highest amounts in these areas, especially if the LP is inside the BM. Also WAA ahead of primary and increasing hgts on coast could lead to some mixing concerns, this is another reason I favor the further W track along the baroclinic zone. In the end I expect a general widespread 6-12 for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC, and most of NJ. Some areas will receive 10-15 and I think the best chance for this is over Nassau, NYC and northeastern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The short duration of this event will likely prevent blizzard warnings. The winds will also be considerably less strong than the blizzard...maybe some 45 mph gusts along the coast. That should help with ratios for those under CCB if one infact developes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Boxing+Day Its a holiday celebrated in Canada on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS has .5-.75 extending all the way back to the western fringe of NJ. Keep in mind it trended wetter, that solution can continue to deviate. What people need to realize is that duration is not a huge factor. The majority of the accumulating snows in the blizzard occurred in a matter of 8-12 hours. What is most important is that at 500mb the pattern is closed back over Ohio. With a primary cutting, a secondary development is favored further west, and supported aloft. I believe this is why the GFS has adjusted a tad west. Dynamics are good with high omega and strong uvv's. Although further east might see the best qpf, further west might benefit from enhanced ratios and higher elevation. Remember although models depicted NYC and east getting the highest QPF values during the blizzard areas within 30 miles to the W of NYC received the high amounts also because of banding and forcing, regardless of QPF, which can happen again. Also with 850 and 700 over or close to LI you always have to be concerned about the best banding being west, so I urge cautiion with forecasting highest amounts in these areas, especially if the LP is inside the BM. Also WAA ahead of primary and increasing hgts on coast could lead to some mixing concerns, this is another reason I favor the further W track along the baroclinic zone. In the end I expect a general widespread 6-12 for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC, and most of NJ. Some areas will receive 10-15 and I think the best chance for this is over Nassau, NYC and northeastern NJ. This is an excellent post. Thank you for the insight. You have sound reasoning here and I hope you verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS ensembles are further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That should help with ratios for those under CCB if one infact developes. Exactly..with the boxing day event..we had historical banding that was capable of dropping 3-5" per hour snowfall. Where I am in NE NJ we were right under that intense band and finished with 2.503" QPF and 23.0" of snow as per a report from a trained spotter. That's only slightly higher than a 9-1 ratio with temps that supported 14-1. This time around the temps are not as good but with less wind we could see 10-1 or even 11-1. Thus someone could actually end up with more snow in NJ than they did with the last event. As far as east of the city goes...I would expect that the higher temps will outweigh the lower wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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