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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287

The NAM is an outlier at the moment in terms of strength/QPF. Best at this time to take a comprimise of 0.75"-1.25" with the higher amounts North and East.

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The boxing day storm was captured by a cutoff low which dragged it back towards the coast. Then the storm became vertically stacked the next day as it impacted NE.

Thank you. I realize the Boxing Day storm hung around for an impressive amount of time but it certainly wasn't more than 18 hours at best. What caused that storm to scoot out after only that much time? I guess I am searching for the answer that describes what needs to happen for a storm to last longer than 24 hours. What causes a stall and what is the needed amount of downstream blocking.

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Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287

We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west.

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Thank you. I realize the Boxing Day storm hung around for an impressive amount of time but it certainly wasn't more than 18 hours at best. What caused that storm to scoot out after only that much time? I guess I am searching for the answer that describes what needs to happen for a storm to last longer than 24 hours.

eventually the system became vertically stacked and snowed itself out over NE.

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We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west.

i think this forum is best suited to also include Middlesex and Monmouth for this storm.

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eventually the system became vertically stacked and snowed itself out over NE.

Got it. So the blocking would have had to be strong enough so that when it becomes vertically stacked and snows itself out, it happens further south and west allowing it to remain in this area longer than the boxing day storm did.

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what do folks thing about strong winds on the coast especially? Any chance of blizzard warnings?

Definilty although the system is not anywhere close to as impressive as the 12/26 event. Some people may still end up with higher totals though thanks to slightly higher ratios of the banding can persist over one area as it did with the boxing day event.

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The short duration of this event will likely prevent blizzard warnings. The winds will also be considerably less strong than the blizzard...maybe some 45 mph gusts along the coast.

Check the official definition by the NWS of a Blizzard Warning. All that is required is a 3 hour event of greater than 30MPH gusts with snow.

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I wasn't aware of that. I thought it was NYC Metro, much of which is in Mt hollys forecasting area but not in the Philly metro, ie, Somerset, Middlesex, Morris, the shore areas etc.

We are talking about UPTON's CWA here only, 287 is right on the border. Don't forget Morris County is part of Mt. Holly. Also..some past runs of the NAM had the 1" line further west.

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Depends on where you are talking about. West of NYC I dont think any model has a full 1" of QPF. The NAM does but only EWR on east. GFS doesn't even have .5" once you get west of 287

GFS has .5-.75 extending all the way back to the western fringe of NJ. Keep in mind it trended wetter, that solution can continue to deviate. What people need to realize is that duration is not a huge factor. The majority of the accumulating snows in the blizzard occurred in a matter of 8-12 hours. What is most important is that at 500mb the pattern is closed back over Ohio. With a primary cutting, a secondary development is favored further west, and supported aloft. I believe this is why the GFS has adjusted a tad west. Dynamics are good with high omega and strong uvv's. Although further east might see the best qpf, further west might benefit from enhanced ratios and higher elevation. Remember although models depicted NYC and east getting the highest QPF values during the blizzard areas within 30 miles to the W of NYC received the high amounts also because of banding and forcing, regardless of QPF, which can happen again. Also with 850 and 700 over or close to LI you always have to be concerned about the best banding being west, so I urge cautiion with forecasting highest amounts in these areas, especially if the LP is inside the BM. Also WAA ahead of primary and increasing hgts on coast could lead to some mixing concerns, this is another reason I favor the further W track along the baroclinic zone. In the end I expect a general widespread 6-12 for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC, and most of NJ. Some areas will receive 10-15 and I think the best chance for this is over Nassau, NYC and northeastern NJ.

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GFS has .5-.75 extending all the way back to the western fringe of NJ. Keep in mind it trended wetter, that solution can continue to deviate. What people need to realize is that duration is not a huge factor. The majority of the accumulating snows in the blizzard occurred in a matter of 8-12 hours. What is most important is that at 500mb the pattern is closed back over Ohio. With a primary cutting, a secondary development is favored further west, and supported aloft. I believe this is why the GFS has adjusted a tad west. Dynamics are good with high omega and strong uvv's. Although further east might see the best qpf, further west might benefit from enhanced ratios and higher elevation. Remember although models depicted NYC and east getting the highest QPF values during the blizzard areas within 30 miles to the W of NYC received the high amounts also because of banding and forcing, regardless of QPF, which can happen again. Also with 850 and 700 over or close to LI you always have to be concerned about the best banding being west, so I urge cautiion with forecasting highest amounts in these areas, especially if the LP is inside the BM. Also WAA ahead of primary and increasing hgts on coast could lead to some mixing concerns, this is another reason I favor the further W track along the baroclinic zone. In the end I expect a general widespread 6-12 for western Suffolk, Nassau, NYC, and most of NJ. Some areas will receive 10-15 and I think the best chance for this is over Nassau, NYC and northeastern NJ.

This is an excellent post. Thank you for the insight. You have sound reasoning here and I hope you verify.:thumbsup:

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That should help with ratios for those under CCB if one infact developes.

Exactly..with the boxing day event..we had historical banding that was capable of dropping 3-5" per hour snowfall. Where I am in NE NJ we were right under that intense band and finished with 2.503" QPF and 23.0" of snow as per a report from a trained spotter. That's only slightly higher than a 9-1 ratio with temps that supported 14-1. This time around the temps are not as good but with less wind we could see 10-1 or even 11-1. Thus someone could actually end up with more snow in NJ than they did with the last event. As far as east of the city goes...I would expect that the higher temps will outweigh the lower wind.

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