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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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Were going to do just fine with this event....I wouldn't be too worried about model output QPF. Focus instead on the banding. A trained spotter for my location in NJ measured 2.503" of QPF for the boxing day event and not a single model had that much QPF for my area. Why? that amazing banding setup right over us and we wound up with 23.0".

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I think it is more of an outlier with QPF, nearly doubling other recent model ouput, including the 12Z GFS.

it's definitely an outlier wrt to QPF but with the GFS bringing the .75 line nearly to Manhattan (makes it into brooklyn and queens) so a compromise between the two (1.17 and maybe .7 (on 12 GFS)) would probably be the best way to go. HPC seems to do this with the QPF map even though it was made before this mornings/aftn model runs.

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correct me if i'm wrong but this looks like a 6 to 8 hour event over NJ and NYC.

that's what I would say.. approximately speaking.. at least the heaviest part of the storm. I would expect Wednesday afternoon to be mostly sunny across the region. I often find that with these nor'easters, I see snow in the forecast at the tail end of the storm and it's already sunny... the sun tends to poke out pretty quickly at the end of these.. at least that's what I generally see.

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We're going to get a more classic event (4-8") with this one and that's just fine with me. I don't need 12"+ with every storm. This one will be close though and it's still not perfectly locked in, we would've gotten clobbered had the secondary been maybe 50-75 miles further west than depicted.

The secondary also reminds of the the recent storm but without the negative tilt and it closes off a bit later.

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there are 2 frames where it is snowing pretty good so you'd think its at least a 12 hour event with maybe 16 hours of actual snow, albeit maybe 2-3 hours on either end of lighter snow that doesn't accumulate much.

you can't look at it that way.. its showing one frame (06z to 12z) where it snows the whole time.. than lighter QPF after 12z which means its only snowing for a few hours after 12z.. probably 2 or 3 hours for the tri state.. so something like midnight to 8am... 8 hours at best and 6 hours of really heavy stuff..

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We're going to get a more classic event (4-8") with this one and that's just fine with me. I don't need 12"+ with every storm. This one will be close though and it's still not perfectly locked in, we would've gotten clobbered had the secondary been maybe 50-75 miles further west than depicted.

The secondary also reminds of the the recent storm but without the negative tilt and it closes off a bit later.

The boxing day storm moved very slowly and allowed the very intense banding to remain over one area for a prolonged period of time. This storm is much more progresive and thus less QPF. Not to mention...the banding that setup was historical. The wind really hurt the otherwise impressive snow ratios as well. We would have all ended up with 30"+ with even just slighly higher ratios.

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that's what I would say.. approximately speaking.. at least the heaviest part of the storm. I would expect Wednesday afternoon to be mostly sunny across the region. I often find that with these nor'easters, I see snow in the forecast at the tail end of the storm and it's already sunny... the sun tends to poke out pretty quickly at the end of these.. at least that's what I generally see.

Based on mid-level RH fields it looks to me like lingering clouds and possible flurries through Wed night (on the 12z GFS charts).

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you can't look at it that way.. its showing one frame (06z to 12z) where it snows the whole time.. than lighter QPF after 12z which means its only snowing for a few hours after 12z.. probably 2 or 3 hours for the tri state.. so something like midnight to 8am... 8 hours at best and 6 hours of really heavy stuff..

I am not really sure what you're trying to say with your first point but I concede it probably wont be 12 hours of good snows but more than 6 hours for sure, I think 8 maybe 10 is better than either 6 or 12. Either way this is really just splitting hairs, the point we all agree on is this is not a long duration storm.

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there are 2 frames where it is snowing pretty good so you'd think its at least a 12 hour event with maybe 16 hours of actual snow, albeit maybe 2-3 hours on either end of lighter snow that doesn't accumulate much.

On the 12z it looks like maybe 12-18hrs of snow with 6 hours of mod-heavy embedded.

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It comes down to the CCB for the heavier amounts. The sooner it develops the better off we all are. If it develops too late, we're on the lower end of accumulations.

GFS certainly trended better in developing it sooner and getting it here. The low track is a touch west but the main change is intensifying the lift through better upper air dynamics, and the storm that we see. I'm rooting for a track just inside the B/M and it looks like it might be the case in the end.

Amounts as always depend on banding, and just because a storm doesn't last for very long doesn't mean some very impressive totals can't be accomplished. 12/30/00 only lasted maybe 8 hours or so but still gave me 15". Again, at least all of us look to be a lock for a moderate snow event and it won't be an all-or-nothing bomb like 12/26.

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The boxing day storm moved very slowly and allowed the very intense banding to remain over one area for a prolonged period of time. This storm is much more progresive and thus less QPF.

Can you elaborate more on why this storm is this progressive. What are the reasons that this thing won't hang around as long. Strength of low pressure, not captured or captured too late, lack of blocking?

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Are there any factors that could slow this thing down? I still believe we won't have a lock with this thing until tonight or tomorrow.

correct me if I'm wrong mets but we would have needed the first low in the midwest to cutoff and capture the coastal thus dragging it closer to the coast and temporarily stalling it out.

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I am not really sure what you're trying to say with your first point but I concede it probably wont be 12 hours of good snows but more than 6 hours for sure, I think 8 maybe 10 is better than either 6 or 12. Either way this is really just splitting hairs, the point we all agree on is this is not a long duration storm.

According to the sim radar on the Nam, it's about a 9 hour storm with very heavy snow. Books it in and out.

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Can you elaborate more on why this storm is this progressive. What are the reasons that this thing won't hang around as long. Strength of low pressure, not captured or captured too late, lack of blocking?

The boxing day storm was captured by a cutoff low which dragged it back towards the coast. Then the storm became vertically stacked the next day as it impacted NE.

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correct me if I'm wrong mets but we would have needed the first low in the midwest to cutoff and capture the coastal thus dragging it closer to the coast and temporarily stalling it out.

Look downstream. There's some blocking, but not a lot.

EDIT: Though I should point out, they're not exactly independent either. A deeper low will create more WAA in front and block itself.

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According to the sim radar on the Nam, it's about a 9 hour storm with very heavy snow. Books it in and out.

perfectly between 8 and 10 lol...but ya its definitely a quick mover for sure. Another thing I wanted to bring up was snow ratios on the western fringe of the heaviest snow. Someone maybe in NE jersey, Lower HV or SW CT may see some very good totals relative to the QPF

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Based on mid-level RH fields it looks to me like lingering clouds and possible flurries through Wed night (on the 12z GFS charts).

yep, this is true.. it does show that... but I'm gonna take a chance and not buy into it. I put mostly sunny for Wednesday afternoon on my personal website... partly sunny is probably safer, but ehhhh.. what the hey :thumbsup:

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