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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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The positioning of the upper level height field and shortwave really argues for the surface low to be at least 25-50 miles further west and deeper than the GFS places it...and also argues for a precip shield to develop and expand from Delaware northward through New Jersey into the New York area..and then rapidly intensify. I wonder if some sort of shortwave is escaping northeast, or something along those lines, that might be dampening it's height field. The NAM is definitely tighter and closer to the coast w/ the H5 heights even at 21-24 hours as are most other models.

When do the 6z GEFS come out?

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Generally high resolution models such as the ARW/NMM NCEP hi-res and the NAM (WRF-NMM) and ETA are non-hydrostatic. SUNY MM5 is also I believe. Otherwise, most other models are hydrostatic, including the regional GEM and all global models.

Is this because the high resolution models generally run for a shorter time, while the globals are better in the longer range and thus incorporating those non hydrostatic equations would require much more computing power? I also think that the models operating in the longer range would probably experience greater errors since I remember you said incorporating these equations increases the level of noise-- what it reminds me of is a digital camera without an antialiasing filter-- while the picture has more resolution, it also has a higher level of digital noise and "artifacts."

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I'm off to bed..see you dudes tomorrow. Good luck to everybody who's getting up in the early morning. Wishing you all feet and feet of wind driven snow :snowman:

I could not sleep, I passed out at 1:45 and just kept thinking about the sref and nam,best of luck sleeping lol

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From a forecast standpoint, I don't think you should discount the GFS at this time, otherwise we'd be throwing out 12-24" amounts. I think a good forecast, even if the GFS is wetter at 12Z is 8-14" with more where mesoscale banding sets up. That should cover the gamut of possibilities since after all this is barely a 12 hour storm.

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This event is being set up more so by the Greenland block over top of it so it is almost identical digging, but I believe you are right not quite as much digging I suppose as that event. Still, very similar and we all know the dynamics with that storm that produced 20"+ totals in 12 hrs. Very quick storm, similar track/.qpf field to what the 6z nam shows, but 6z nam is more rapped up earlier than that miller B event was.

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I am going to say this right now, book it. This storm will exit quicker than the guidance have it. It always works out that way. Any time you have strong UVM in the models and it snows that hard for that short of time, it always exits quicker. I could see the weenie suicide as the back edge of the snow exiting before the WED am push. Just sayin from experience.

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This event is being set up more so by the Greenland block over top of it so it is almost identical digging, but I believe you are right not quite as much digging I suppose as that event. Still, very similar and we all know the dynamics with that storm that produced 20"+ totals in 12 hrs. Very quick storm, similar track/.qpf field to what the 6z nam shows, but 6z nam is more rapped up earlier than that miller B event was.

following the nam and gfs output for ATLH that would be one heck of a range.....5" to 17". Very quick storm indeed!

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From a forecast standpoint, I don't think you should discount the GFS at this time, otherwise we'd be throwing out 12-24" amounts. I think a good forecast, even if the GFS is wetter at 12Z is 8-14" with more where mesoscale banding sets up. That should cover the gamut of possibilities since after all this is barely a 12 hour storm.

Not really-- it should be snowing most of Wednesday :) The EURO has it lasting even longer than that!

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I am going to say this right now, book it. This storm will exit quicker than the guidance have it. It always works out that way. Any time you have strong UVM in the models and it snows that hard for that short of time, it always exits quicker. I could see the weenie suicide as the back edge of the snow exiting before the WED am push. Just sayin from experience.

It's hard to have a direct impact from a coastal exiting that quickly though. If it said 30 hours like with the last storm, I'd agree with you. Right now (as I said above) I'd go with an 18 hour snowstorm. That's typical for us with coastals. I'd expect accumulating snow to end in the late morning-- maybe like 10 am.

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idk, with such a dynamic event, i see this ending sooner than later. fwiw.

Dont storms like this usually slow down as theyre intensifying? I hope it does slow down a bit, because it would suck to have this all wasted at night :P

I heard the heavy snow doesnt get going until 2 am.... so having the heavy snow for 6 hours (2 am to 8 am) shouldnt be asking too much :P

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Dont storms like this usually slow down as theyre intensifying? I hope it does slow down a bit, because it would suck to have this all wasted at night :P

I heard the heavy snow doesnt get going until 2 am.... so having the heavy snow for 6 hours (2 am to 8 am) shouldnt be asking too much :P

Im just saying it will be quick to exit. I cant say anything more. It's your arguement vice mine. We'll see.

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Wow, what a wonderful job the night owls did in there. Thank you guys, especially earthlight and baroclynic.

Looks like the everyone came on board except the gff and the usual models being to far sw with the banding 48 hours out looks to come true as even the Euro has mad an adjustment to the left.

Looking forward to bringing this one home for everyone in the nyc metro.

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Im just saying it will be quick to exit. I cant say anything more. It's your arguement vice mine. We'll see.

We're not arguing :P Im agreeing this wont be a 24 hr storm (which is long duration to me), but longer than 12 hours. The reason why I think we still get accumulating snows into the morning is that I heard the heavy stuff doesnt get in here until 2 am. So it would basically have to be a 4 hour storm not to impact the morning commute lol.

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Wow, what a wonderful job the night owls did in there. Thank you guys, especially earthlight and baroclynic.

Looks like the everyone came on board except the gff and the usual models being to far sw with the banding 48 hours out looks to come true as even the Euro has mad an adjustment to the left.

Looking forward to bringing this one home for everyone in the nyc metro.

Yeah, its not a party without one spoiler model in there lol. I guess it just adds a bit of suspense into the equation......

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