earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 06z NAM just has some insane omega values aligned within the snowgrowth regions. Some incredibily dynamic snowfall on the bufkit soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here we go....NAM 6z ISU bufkit cobb output snow totals: KHPN 25.2 KLGA 20.9 KISP 13 (mixing issues) KHFD 24 KORH 24.9 KEWR 24.3 RUTG 25.5 KPOU 38.1!! And that's enough west please. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's what many in this thread were probably waiting for...holy cow. The NAM has the low at 980mb off the NJ coast at 27 hours! Also check out the insane H850 thermal packing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here we go....NAM 6z ISU bufkit cobb output snow totals: KHPN 25.2 KLGA 20.9 KISP 13 (mixing issues) KHFD 24 KORH 24.9 KEWR 24.3 RUTG 25.5 KPOU 38.1!! KSWF.. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 06z GFS more amplified at 12 hrs..but still less so than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't look like any major signs of the GFS caving in...one of these models is going to really sh** the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm 52 and to date the most intense overnight storm in my lifetime, which was a KU storm was Jan 20, 1978. The LFM forecasted 2-4" then a changeover to rain. Needless to say it was all snow but ending as fz drizzle. The snow started mid evening and was S++ by midnight . By 8am there was 17" on the ground. Betwwen midnight and 6am, 1 foot fell. This storm on paper looks to exceed Jan 78, let's see if it can outperform it. I was up all night for that storm and it was like watching YHBROOOKLYN's time lapse camera in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 KSWF.. thanks 31.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We get some winter storms in the form of Colorado Lows, Panhandle Hookers, and a select few Gulf Lows, but nothing on the scale of a Nor'easter. Nor'easters have the advantage of air-sea interaction instability, much smaller friction values over the ocean, and moist latent heat effects. This can make them highly non-linear beasts, and this storm threat is the perfect example. In terms of convection, a meteorologist could not have created a better dynamic/thermodynamic setup than the high plains/plains region of the United States. The flat and open plains with results in unimpeded air flow, the Gulf of Mexico which provides low level moisture, the Rockies which provides an Environmental Mixed Layer during the summer (a dry adiabatic layer overtop a capping layer), and dynamic effects which results in the advection of moist Gulf of Mexico boundary layer air (nocturnal low level jet and the dynamic low level jet under lee troughing influences) make the plains a nearly perfect setup for deep, moist convection. I think the current NAM is about as far W as it can go. Quite honestly, the exact qpf amounts will be ridiculously challenging to nail down both to a potential erratic track and extreme mesoscale banding. Personally I have no analogs since I have never seen such an event, but I am sure some of the EC veterans can name a few. Nailing down qpf totals will be challenging though with an event such as this. I will admit I wish I was out east for this event. I am jealous. Oh yea. I bet you would want to live in NYC, the land of the brave, where you dont get plowed out for days, then get a ticket for not clearing your sidewalk! Those poor people! My taxes here in NW NJ are the highest in the state, but at least they clear the roads when it snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow. The GFS is still way east of every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow. The GFS is still way east of every other model. Do you think the GFS just doesn't have the resolution required to process such a dynamic, tightly-wound low pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty much the same solution thru 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm 52 and to date the most intense overnight storm in my lifetime, which was a KU storm was Jan 20, 1978. The LFM forecasted 2-4" then a changeover to rain. Needless to say it was all snow but ending as fz drizzle. The snow started mid evening and was S++ by midnight . By 8am there was 17" on the ground. Betwwen midnight and 6am, 1 foot fell. This storm on paper looks to exceed Jan 78, let's see if it can outperform it. I was up all night for that storm and it was like watching YHBROOOKLYN's time lapse camera in real time. I was born in 1978 and I recall pics in the old album of my mom and sister out in the yard from that storm and the snow was up to my moms upper leg. She is 5'8. I only saw snow in my lifetime here exceed that in the 1996 blizzard...where the snow drifts were right along the windows of my truck as I drove around that night. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't look like any major signs of the GFS caving in...one of these models is going to really sh** the bed. I dunno - I was saying the other night I can't support the NAM because all the other models are against it (I think only SREFs) were kind of for it. Now it looks like GFS and UKIE (which has been terrible) against all the short range and the Euro. If GFS scores the upset I'll be shocked - these are the kind of dynamics that the short range models are built for. I don't think the NAM is necessarily right, however I think it is probably more right than the GFS at this juncture based on the camp of models that are in its corner at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you think the GFS just doesn't have the resolution required to process such a dynamic, tightly-wound low pressure? I really don't even know what to say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow. The GFS is still way east of every other model. And the NAM is west. Truth probably lies in the middle hedging closer to the NAM by like a 70/30 ratio. Basically the other consensus of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what is with the gfs? h5 looks amazing at 21hr but slp is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you think the GFS just doesn't have the resolution required to process such a dynamic, tightly-wound low pressure? The GFS has had 10 storms probably since 2005 where it has been out on its own in the short term, its probably been wrong on 5 and right on 5 of them...you just don't know...its a good enough model inside 84 hours that it can't be tossed as easily as in the medium or long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So it looks like a 984 low crossing the S fork of LI between the Hamptons and Montauk Point... Yeah I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And the NAM is west. Truth probably lies in the middle hedging closer to the NAM by like a 70/30 ratio. Basically the other consensus of guidance. Yeah, agreed. But I mean I can't really recall the GFS being so far off from most other guidance like this. And it's not budging despite better appearances aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And the NAM is west. Truth probably lies in the middle hedging closer to the NAM by like a 70/30 ratio. Basically the other consensus of guidance. The GFS probably caves to ECM/NAM at 12z....it tends to do this in major winter storms. I'm pretty confident the track won't be as close to the coast as 6z NAM but the GFS seems to be trending towards the idea of a further west, more amplified system...so it is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 as I said to earthlight via phone earlier tnt, the GFS was the first to latch onto the blizzard vice the other guidance so it DOES have history of performing well given the new upgrade. However, with such a strong, closed h5 feature...which would lend to capturing the sfc low and going frther W, the NAM seems to be the best bet now. I will note, I have seen the Nam plenty of times do this. It is stubborn with a storm all the way thru the short term, then at the last moment, it suddenly shifts twds the other guidance. If we see the nam do this, i wouldnt be shocked. But synoptics argue against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, agreed. But I mean I can't really recall the GFS being so far off from most other guidance like this. And it's not budging despite better appearances aloft. Well I'm sure its not going to handle the compact dynamic nature of this low very well so I definitely wouldn't go with its solution. On the flip side, the NAM could very well be too amped...we've seen it do that type of track a couple times now and it goes slightly back SE the next run which makes me think thats probably the western edge of the possibilities and the truth lies somewhere a little bit E of it ala Euro and its ensembles and SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah no problem. I thought you would like it since there are all sorts of gravity waves--both at the convective level in the anvil cloud tops and near the surface. You need to look close, but there is a large scale gravity waves that develops around 22:40 as that first supercell explodes. Note the ring that develops around the low cloud deck.. Supercellular convection is an amazing event--and one which I am most humbled by as a meteorologist because they are simply impossible to truly forecast. The dynamics involved both at the synoptic, mesoscale, and microscale levels are mind-boggling, and the supercell is almost weather perfected as a steady state highly non-linear being. It almost looks like there are several different dynamics coming together and working collectively in that animation-- on all different scales-- creating a "runaway effect"-- it actually reminds me of some of those detonation movies, where a really small explosion can trigger a massive collapse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well I'm sure its not going to handle the compact dynamic nature of this low very well so I definitely wouldn't go with its solution. On the flip side, the NAM could very well be too amped...we've seen it do that type of track a couple times now and it goes slightly back SE the next run which makes me think thats probably the western edge of the possibilities and the truth lies somewhere a little bit E of it ala Euro and its ensembles and SREF mean. Basically what I just posted. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here we go....NAM 6z ISU bufkit cobb output snow totals: KHPN 25.2 KLGA 20.9 KISP 13 (mixing issues) KHFD 24 KORH 24.9 KEWR 24.3 RUTG 25.5 KPOU 38.1!! And that's enough west please. Thank you. what did you have for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, and I think it is worth a lot now, the GFS at 06Z does not initialize well with the HPC surface map at 06Z or the RUC at 06Z with the coastal low. The NAM looks much more realistic--and with feedback development soon, being off a little here will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I will note, I have seen the Nam plenty of times do this. It is stubborn with a storm all the way thru the short term, then at the last moment, it suddenly shifts twds the other guidance. If we see the nam do this, i wouldnt be shocked. But synoptics argue against it. I would have been alot less confident if the Euro and it's ensembles hadn't come so far northwest on the latest 00z run. The GFS is out on it's own..not counting crazy uncle Ukie...I just wonder what kind of problem it is having here. Could it score the coup here? Sure...but I wouldn't bet my money on it at this moment in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS has had 10 storms probably since 2005 where it has been out on its own in the short term, its probably been wrong on 5 and right on 5 of them...you just don't know...its a good enough model inside 84 hours that it can't be tossed as easily as in the medium or long range. I wonder if having the euro and nam together and the ggem trending towards them means its much more likely the gfs is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest RUC runs look literally like a carbon copy of the 06z NAM through their medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.