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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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lol Will was talking about how normally this kind of track would cause a changeover but with the storm being so potent and sucking everything in-- reminded me of a black hole, and maybe with those thunderstorms we'll generate some antimatter and a gravity wave to boot ;)

Looks like a surface coastal front pushes into easternmost Suffolk between 6 and 9z. Here is FOK (Westhampton)'s sounding. Gets it up to 33-34. Montauk gets up to 37F as the low apparently crosses about directly over head.

Date: 27 hour Eta valid 9Z WED 12 JAN 11

Station: KFOK

Latitude: 40.85

Longitude: -72.63

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 -44

SFC 994 6 1.7 1.1 96 0.5 1.4 46 23 275.3 276.0 274.9 286.6 4.17

2 950 368 -0.1 -0.2 100 0.0 -0.2 60 39 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9 3.98

3 900 800 -1.4 -1.4 100 0.0 -1.4 82 48 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.7 3.82

4 850 1255 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.5 108 53 284.6 285.3 279.6 296.0 4.02

5 800 1739 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.4 134 61 289.6 290.4 282.2 302.0 4.29

6 750 2252 -3.2 -3.3 100 0.0 -3.3 154 66 293.1 293.8 283.3 304.8 4.01

7 700 2794 -6.7 -6.8 100 0.0 -6.8 167 66 295.0 295.6 283.3 304.8 3.29

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lol Will was talking about how normally this kind of track would cause a changeover but with the storm being so potent and sucking everything in-- reminded me of a black hole, and maybe with those thunderstorms we'll generate some antimatter and a gravity wave to boot ;)

Oh I bet there will be gravity waves. The combination of convection and very low static stability will result in efficient propagation of gravity waves. Can't comment on the antimatter since I have not read that article yet smile.gif

BTW...gravity waves and convection.

You will love this. SRSO of GOES for a convective event. Enjoy.

http://cimss.ssec.wi...s_srso_anim.gif

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY342 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011...COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NYZ067>071-111715-/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z//O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-342 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCHIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.* HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&

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If the latest NAM is to be believed, the jackpot might be from here into E NJ again, just like with the blizzard (although I highly doubt E LI has the major dryslot issue they had last time given the rapid deepening of the system and massive height falls).

This was originally looking like an eastern LI/SNE storm in terms of jackpot totals with moderate amounts back to NYC, but everything has shifted west quite remarkably, putting NYC metro right in the bullseye. I hope the City is prepared well for plowing and maintaining crucial roadways, since this may rival the 12/26 storm in snowfall totals if not in winds. I really like where I'm sitting in terms of the H5 and H7 tracks since the storm path seems to resemble 2/25 last year, and I had 26" in that event. I'm also thinking ratios might be a bit better here in Westchester at 350' elevation, although I'm not certain it will make too much of a difference with the cold airmass in place over the region. The track from just off the NJ Coast to making landfall on LI usually crushes me, so I'm quite optimistic.

Does anyone else think Westchester might be in the sweet spot for this storm? I don't mean to be a weenie, but the 12/26 set-up definitely favored NJ with the low pressure closing off further to the SW. With this event being more of a traditional Miller B, could that mean that those of us who live to the north of the city get enhanced banding?

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This was originally looking like an eastern LI/SNE storm in terms of jackpot totals with moderate amounts back to NYC, but everything has shifted west quite remarkably, putting NYC metro right in the bullseye. I hope the City is prepared well for plowing and maintaining crucial roadways, since this may rival the 12/26 storm in snowfall totals if not in winds. I really like where I'm sitting in terms of the H5 and H7 tracks since the storm path seems to resemble 2/25 last year, and I had 26" in that event. I'm also thinking ratios might be a bit better here in Westchester at 350' elevation, although I'm not certain it will make too much of a difference with the cold airmass in place over the region. The track from just off the NJ Coast to making landfall on LI usually crushes me, so I'm quite optimistic.

Does anyone else think Westchester might be in the sweet spot for this storm? I don't mean to be a weenie, but the 12/26 set-up definitely favored NJ with the low pressure closing off further to the SW. With this event being more of a traditional Miller B, could that mean that those of us who live to the north of the city get enhanced banding?

Not to sound like a broken record, but if the NAM was to be correct all of us get hammered but being straight north of the city it is possible we could be the sweet spot according to the 3z ETA

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That is one of the coolest animations I have seen. Thanks for posting it !

No problem! An amazing display of weather at its finest. GOES satellite can be put into Rapid Scan and Super Rapid Scan Operations depending on the need. In this case, it was requested to be put into SRSO 1 minute scans (so you are seeing minute by minute scans) for a severe convective event across the plains. That is SE Kansas there...and that was a major severe convective event that developed along a cold front in 2009. Mostly a unidirectional shear event along the front, but you can see the large shear initiated about 5-6 dominant supercells as the cap was annihilated.

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Oh I bet there will be gravity waves. The combination of convection and very low static stability will result in efficient propagation of gravity waves. Can't comment on the antimatter since I have not read that article yet smile.gif

BTW...gravity waves and convection.

You will love this. SRSO of GOES for a convective event. Enjoy.

http://cimss.ssec.wi...s_srso_anim.gif

Thanks, Jason... I saved it! It looks like something out of a doomsday movie :)

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I hope mayor bloomberg and city official paying attention NAM or this is gonna be dec26th all over again?

Im pretty sure if you told Bloomberg and his pals about the NAM he would think you were a vietnam war vet, delusional and put you in a shelter..... ;) He seems to think snowstorms arent that serious around here-- I hope he's changed his tune.

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Im pretty sure if you told Bloomberg and his pals about the NAM he would think you were a vietnam war vet, delusional and put you in a shelter..... ;) He seems to think snowstorms arent that serious around here-- I hope he's changed his tune.

laugh.gif

or he would say DPW commissioner is on top of things we are looking at a light to moderate event for the city.

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This was originally looking like an eastern LI/SNE storm in terms of jackpot totals with moderate amounts back to NYC, but everything has shifted west quite remarkably, putting NYC metro right in the bullseye. I hope the City is prepared well for plowing and maintaining crucial roadways, since this may rival the 12/26 storm in snowfall totals if not in winds. I really like where I'm sitting in terms of the H5 and H7 tracks since the storm path seems to resemble 2/25 last year, and I had 26" in that event. I'm also thinking ratios might be a bit better here in Westchester at 350' elevation, although I'm not certain it will make too much of a difference with the cold airmass in place over the region. The track from just off the NJ Coast to making landfall on LI usually crushes me, so I'm quite optimistic.

Does anyone else think Westchester might be in the sweet spot for this storm? I don't mean to be a weenie, but the 12/26 set-up definitely favored NJ with the low pressure closing off further to the SW. With this event being more of a traditional Miller B, could that mean that those of us who live to the north of the city get enhanced banding?

With how storms have trended west this season (both 12/26 and this one), it seems like this might be establishing a pattern for the season....something to look for from now on.

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I hope mayor bloomberg and city official paying attention NAM or this is gonna be dec26th all over again?

I think the NAM's track may be more accurate than the GFS but the QPF I think is overdone, I don't think NYC is seeing 1.50 liquid in this storm even though the Euro showed something quite similar....I thought 12-15 would be the main amounts in the NYC 5 boroughs on 12/26 and was wrong outside of LGA/JFK areas due to the meso band....I think 9-12 occurs in this event unless some sort of superband forms again.

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No City can be prepared for what the NAM unleashes. What Bloomy can do is declare a snow emergency and handle this much better than he did 2 weeks ago. NWS is saying stay home unless there's an emergency on Wednesday - Bloomy as of now says alternative side remains in effect and exercise caution while traveling. I hope the tune improves greatly during the day today. Baroclinic - I just want to say excellent job with this system.

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Thanks, Jason... I saved it! It looks like something out of a doomsday movie :)

Yeah no problem. I thought you would like it since there are all sorts of gravity waves--both at the convective level in the anvil cloud tops and near the surface. You need to look close, but there is a large scale gravity waves that develops around 22:40 as that first supercell explodes. Note the ring that develops around the low cloud deck..

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The two most beautiful things in weather...a well developed mature cyclone with a heavy CCB directly over my house...and a plains dryline "bomb" initiation.

Supercellular convection is an amazing event--and one which I am most humbled by as a meteorologist because they are simply impossible to truly forecast. The dynamics involved both at the synoptic, mesoscale, and microscale levels are mind-boggling, and the supercell is almost weather perfected as a steady state highly non-linear being.

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Supercellular convection is an amazing event--and one which I am most humbled by as a meteorologist because they are simply impossible to truly forecast. The dynamics involved both at the synoptic, mesoscale, and microscale levels are mind-boggling, and the supercell is almost weather perfected as a steady state highly non-linear being.

Absolutely...there's nothing quite like watching things initiate both on radar and satellite. It's really exhilarating..trying your best to forecast the forcing for ascent, timing...the cap..it's strength...the kinematics, thermodynamics..etc. A real treat to even get the chance to watch such a process unfold like we do regularly.

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Supercellular convection is an amazing event--and one which I am most humbled by as a meteorologist because they are simply impossible to truly forecast. The dynamics involved both at the synoptic, mesoscale, and microscale levels are mind-boggling, and the supercell is almost weather perfected as a steady state highly non-linear being.

You are just an amazing meteorologist, and you write like a novelist!

Although you guys get better severe out there, I bet you're jealous of a good old-fashioned Nor'easter.

Do you think the jackpot amounts are migrating west with the emerging trend on models, or is central LI and CT still the favored spot for the biggest totals? Any chance someone sees two feet with this?

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You are just an amazing meteorologist, and you write like a novelist!

Although you guys get better severe out there, I bet you're jealous of a good old-fashioned Nor'easter.

Do you think the jackpot amounts are migrating west with the emerging trend on models, or is central LI and CT still the favored spot for the biggest totals? Any chance someone sees two feet with this?

We get some winter storms in the form of Colorado Lows, Panhandle Hookers, and a select few Gulf Lows, but nothing on the scale of a Nor'easter. Nor'easters have the advantage of air-sea interaction instability, much smaller friction values over the ocean, and moist latent heat effects. This can make them highly non-linear beasts, and this storm threat is the perfect example.

In terms of convection, a meteorologist could not have created a better dynamic/thermodynamic setup than the high plains/plains region of the United States. The flat and open plains which results in unimpeded air flow, the Gulf of Mexico which provides low level moisture, the Rockies which provides an Environmental Mixed Layer during the summer (a dry adiabatic layer overtop a capping layer), and dynamic effects which results in the advection of moist Gulf of Mexico boundary layer air (nocturnal low level jet and the dynamic low level jet under lee troughing influences) make the plains a nearly perfect setup for deep, moist convection.

I think the current NAM is about as far W as it can go. Quite honestly, the exact qpf amounts will be ridiculously challenging to nail down both to a potential erratic track and extreme mesoscale banding. Personally I have no analogs since I have never seen such an event, but I am sure some of the EC veterans can name a few. Nailing down qpf totals will be challenging though with an event such as this.

I will admit I wish I was out east for this event. I am jealous.

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