jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So whats the precip amounts from C. NJ N & E.? Thanks, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So whats the precip amounts from C. NJ N & E.? Thanks, Rossi my post went all haywire. 5mm - 10mm (0.20 - 0.40) all of NJ/NYC area thru 48, probably a little more beyond there. More east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEm is about 75 - 100 miles from a NAM-like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So whats the precip amounts from C. NJ N & E.? Thanks, Rossi These are rough estimates: PHL - .25" TTN - .30" BLM - .35" NYC - .30" Through 48 hours, which should be just about the whole storm. RGEM isn't really impressive at all for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sometimes I wonder why we all look at so many models at this junction when we know at this point the NAM/GFS and maybe the euro are the most accurate. Rossi MAYBE the euro? the euro is the most accurate at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lots of weenieism being deleted here. Let's stay on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 These are rough estimates: PHL - .25" TTN - .30" BLM - .35" NYC - .30" Through 48 hours, which should be just about the whole storm. RGEM isn't really impressive at all for the area. Im not sure of the RGEM's scoring or if this season its been progressive but with the 26th storm,even in the end it was quite east and under done. The GGEM has been off this year as well. Still think a blend of the GFS/NAm is best inside 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is gonna be further west... more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS is gonna be further west... more amplified. What meteorological basis do you have for that? Or are you just wishcasting, which is explicitly against the rules of Storm Mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What meteorological basis do you have for that? Or are you just wishcasting, which is explicitly against the rules of Storm Mode? **** off pal. Compare 24 at 12z ad 30 at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 **** off pal. Compare 24 at 12z ad 30 at 6z. This is a quick way to get yourself 5-posted. And thanks, I know how to compare models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the gfs has slightly more digging than 00z, and slightly more ridging ahead of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol this is great! getting really tense in here!! big run here as the storm is only 36 hours away from start time.. you would think the models should start to be pretty darn similar (EC, GFS, NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What meteorological basis do you have for that? Or are you just wishcasting, which is explicitly against the rules of Storm Mode? The 500mb trough looks a little more amplified at 24 vs. 6z, and the east coast ridging looks a hair stronger. Probably won't be super NAM strong but could be slightly west. 6z GFS ensembles were more aggressive than the OP also for the area, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even if you take a comprimise of the NAM and GFS for NE NJ since that seems to be the border area you take about 0.75" QPF up against a 10-1 ratio and you end up with 7.5". I've been saying all along this is your typical fast moving noreaster that dumps 6-12" widespread with higher amounts possible in banding. I wouldn't be suprised if some people got over 18" in our CWA especially in the lower hudson valley and possibly Bergen County. As far as LI goes...looks like they are in for a tad more with mixing issues along the immediate coast. All in all...not a MECS but a SECS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is a quick way to get yourself 5-posted. And thanks, I know how to compare models. I was under the impression 500mb maps are kinda like steering currents...the 552 line shifted N a bit, at least in NW NJ..would that imply a track closer to the coast?..the whole trough looks a little more tilted tbh @ 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Cutting off at 500mb over Ohio looks more impressive this run than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS looks much better through 36 hours with its height field interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 500mb trough looks a little more amplified at 24 vs. 6z, and the east coast ridging looks a hair stronger. Probably won't be super NAM strong but could be slightly west. 6z GFS ensembles were more aggressive than the OP also for the area, correct? There is hardly any difference in position between 42hr at 12z and 48hr at 6z. The surface low is a bit deeper, which is producing stronger QPF over Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This will undoubtedly be within its previous 0/6Z runs already based on the placement of both dual lows and the stronger WAA off coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There is hardly any difference in position between 42hr at 12z and 48hr at 6z. The surface low is a bit deeper, which is producing stronger QPF over Jersey. There is a little difference, especially with the strength of the S/W through 42 and the slight W displacement of the dual lows. Positive feedback will bring this a tad W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Reminds me of the Jan 2001 storm over superbowl weekend. Took some time to get its act together and ended up being a fast mover 4 to 8" over most spots slightly less than forecasted. Or even the March '09 storm which was mostly 6 to 10, a few spots less and some coastal areas that cashed in. Even if you take a comprimise of the NAM and GFS for NE NJ since that seems to be the border area you take about 0.75" QPF up against a 10-1 ratio and you end up with 7.5". I've been saying all along this is your typical fast moving noreaster that dumps 6-12" widespread with higher amounts possible in banding. I wouldn't be suprised if some people got over 18" in our CWA especially in the lower hudson valley and possibly Bergen County. As far as LI goes...looks like they are in for a tad more with mixing issues along the immediate coast. All in all...not a MECS but a SECS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 There is a little difference, especially with the strength of the S/W through 42 and the slight W displacement of the dual lows. Positive feedback will bring this a tad W. Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward. GFS making positive steps towards the meso/non-hydro models. I do think the NAM is real close, maybe a hair E with the track will do. Intensity wise, you make a good point, and the NAM did track farther E yet more intense with the qpf shield farther W as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward. Im not seeing that it is deeper. Looks like its 1008 on 6z and 1008 at 42hr on 12z... Unless my eyes are not as good as i thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks deeper this run than 6z, and precip/lift CONSIDERABLY stronger. Widespread 0.25"+ area this run at 42 vs. a very small area at 48 last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0.75" makes it to around Bklyn/Queens this run and nicks the NJ shore. On the whole the CCB develops sooner and blasts us for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 at 42, the 850 low in the midst of tansferring.. and by 48, its fully closed off 2 contour 850 low.. hence the qpf explosion at 45hrs ( sv model 3 hr increments).. just 1 aspect as to why this run was better synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0.75" makes it to around Bklyn/Queens this run and nicks the NJ shore. On the whole the CCB develops sooner and blasts us for longer. extremely good development IMO kinda bowed to the EURO and NAM in this regard. Still think 6+ is a good bet for NYC area with now only the UK and RGEM and potentially GGEM (most likely) suggesting something a little lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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