Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 995
  • Created
  • Last Reply

These are rough estimates:

PHL - .25"

TTN - .30"

BLM - .35"

NYC - .30"

Through 48 hours, which should be just about the whole storm. RGEM isn't really impressive at all for the area.

Im not sure of the RGEM's scoring or if this season its been progressive but with the 26th storm,even in the end it was quite east and under done. The GGEM has been off this year as well. Still think a blend of the GFS/NAm is best inside 54 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What meteorological basis do you have for that? Or are you just wishcasting, which is explicitly against the rules of Storm Mode?

The 500mb trough looks a little more amplified at 24 vs. 6z, and the east coast ridging looks a hair stronger. Probably won't be super NAM strong but could be slightly west. 6z GFS ensembles were more aggressive than the OP also for the area, correct?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if you take a comprimise of the NAM and GFS for NE NJ since that seems to be the border area you take about 0.75" QPF up against a 10-1 ratio and you end up with 7.5". I've been saying all along this is your typical fast moving noreaster that dumps 6-12" widespread with higher amounts possible in banding. I wouldn't be suprised if some people got over 18" in our CWA especially in the lower hudson valley and possibly Bergen County. As far as LI goes...looks like they are in for a tad more with mixing issues along the immediate coast. All in all...not a MECS but a SECS for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a quick way to get yourself 5-posted.

And thanks, I know how to compare models.

I was under the impression 500mb maps are kinda like steering currents...the 552 line shifted N a bit, at least in NW NJ..would that imply a track closer to the coast?..the whole trough looks a little more tilted tbh @ 24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 500mb trough looks a little more amplified at 24 vs. 6z, and the east coast ridging looks a hair stronger. Probably won't be super NAM strong but could be slightly west. 6z GFS ensembles were more aggressive than the OP also for the area, correct?

There is hardly any difference in position between 42hr at 12z and 48hr at 6z. The surface low is a bit deeper, which is producing stronger QPF over Jersey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is hardly any difference in position between 42hr at 12z and 48hr at 6z. The surface low is a bit deeper, which is producing stronger QPF over Jersey.

There is a little difference, especially with the strength of the S/W through 42 and the slight W displacement of the dual lows. Positive feedback will bring this a tad W.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reminds me of the Jan 2001 storm over superbowl weekend. Took some time to get its act together and ended up being a fast mover 4 to 8" over most spots slightly less than forecasted. Or even the March '09 storm which was mostly 6 to 10, a few spots less and some coastal areas that cashed in.

Even if you take a comprimise of the NAM and GFS for NE NJ since that seems to be the border area you take about 0.75" QPF up against a 10-1 ratio and you end up with 7.5". I've been saying all along this is your typical fast moving noreaster that dumps 6-12" widespread with higher amounts possible in banding. I wouldn't be suprised if some people got over 18" in our CWA especially in the lower hudson valley and possibly Bergen County. As far as LI goes...looks like they are in for a tad more with mixing issues along the immediate coast. All in all...not a MECS but a SECS for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a little difference, especially with the strength of the S/W through 42 and the slight W displacement of the dual lows. Positive feedback will bring this a tad W.

Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward.

GFS making positive steps towards the meso/non-hydro models. I do think the NAM is real close, maybe a hair E with the track will do. Intensity wise, you make a good point, and the NAM did track farther E yet more intense with the qpf shield farther W as a result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest stormchaser

Yeah, it's a hair west, but the bigger story, imo, is that it's deeper. The QPF field as a whole is stronger, not just translated westward.

Im not seeing that it is deeper. Looks like its 1008 on 6z and 1008 at 42hr on 12z... Unless my eyes are not as good as i thought?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at 42, the 850 low in the midst of tansferring.. and by 48, its fully closed off 2 contour 850 low.. hence the qpf explosion at 45hrs ( sv model 3 hr increments).. just 1 aspect as to why this run was better synoptically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.75" makes it to around Bklyn/Queens this run and nicks the NJ shore. On the whole the CCB develops sooner and blasts us for longer.

extremely good development IMO kinda bowed to the EURO and NAM in this regard. Still think 6+ is a good bet for NYC area with now only the UK and RGEM and potentially GGEM (most likely) suggesting something a little lighter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...