Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 995
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The strength of that shortwave is amazing. 06Z, if to believed, has an amazing amount of DPVA directed into that ridge....convection is already going earlier than the 0Z NAM had. This may bring mixing issues onto LI.

As I said before, I was a little leery of the eastern LI jackpot forecasts and always thought that those of us on western LI were in a better location, safer from any mixing ideas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even when the TV Mets were painting that high spot of 18 inches over central and eastern LI, I always felt our location was the best spot to be on long island.

I have to think these models are done trending and hopefully edge east a hair later but if by some chance they end up west of here, we might actually be in trouble lol. The dryslot and 850/700 lows have to be very close on the ETA/NAM.

I'd breathe easier if the low stayed east of Montauk. Block Island to Martha's Vineyard is probably the best spot for us. But either way, we would have an explosive six hours at the least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, the scary thing is..is this run is believable given the continued amplification trends we have seen in the height field.

Also looks like a longer duration event than it did before. Euro showed that too. The famed EE connection of old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I said before, I was a little leery of the eastern LI jackpot forecasts and always thought that those of us on western LI were in a better location, safer from any mixing ideas.

Yeah you are golden where you are--even an increased amplification from here on out won't matter since the low will stay off coast where the Gulf Stream baro zone is. It really can't come any more inland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also looks like a longer duration event than it did before. Euro showed that too. The famed EE connection of old.

The low begins to take on a more NE trajectory as it bombs off NJ, and cold air/heights just absolutely crater on top of us. If this setup isn't conducive to thundersnow and pretty much just Apocalyptic conditions, I don't know what is!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is like December 30th, 2000......on steroids.

I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!!

And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up.

At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah you are golden where you are--even an increased amplification from here on out won't matter since the low will stay off coast where the Gulf Stream baro zone is. It really can't come any more inland.

Sorry for being an IMBY weenie here, but do you think the dry slot could possibly impact CT at all?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!!

And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up.

At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end.

Such epic dynamic height falls keep everything cool through the layer. This will undoubtedly have lighting with such extreme dynamically induced height falls. Such an unstable dynamic system...this thing may take on hurricane type characteristics late. I bet this will have an eye.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!!

And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up.

At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end.

Yeah, the dynamics are just going to be amazing. Look at all of that PVA moving right on top of us.

And yeah, this is a very compact storm, and it will have rapid height crashes upon the vort moving over us. That combined with the INSANE dynamics will help to keep the atmosphere very unstable, and dynamically cool the column...wrapping cold air into our system. It's just amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Such epic dynamic height falls keep everything cool through the layer. This will undoubtedly have lighting with such extreme dynamically induced height falls. Such an unstable dynamic system...this thing may take on hurricane type characteristics late. I bet this will have an eye.

lol Will was talking about how normally this kind of track would cause a changeover but with the storm being so potent and sucking everything in-- reminded me of a black hole, and maybe with those thunderstorms we'll generate some antimatter and a gravity wave to boot ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...