simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm trying to enjoy this, but I have a horrible stomach bug that keeps me in pain . I threw up 10 times on 12/26... But on more happy thoughts, what was that about me jinxing it John when I said everything seems to be going right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I do not take credit for any sudden movements, jumping, screaming, etc that may occur from this post. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The strength of that shortwave is amazing. 06Z, if to believed, has an amazing amount of DPVA directed into that ridge....convection is already going earlier than the 0Z NAM had. This may bring mixing issues onto LI. As I said before, I was a little leery of the eastern LI jackpot forecasts and always thought that those of us on western LI were in a better location, safer from any mixing ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I worked a 28 hour shift during the worst of the 12/26 storm. My last Mid ends in the morning. Off for 5 days! Sleep all day in the morning to stay up all night Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM actually does make landfall on eastern LI with this run. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Even when the TV Mets were painting that high spot of 18 inches over central and eastern LI, I always felt our location was the best spot to be on long island. I have to think these models are done trending and hopefully edge east a hair later but if by some chance they end up west of here, we might actually be in trouble lol. The dryslot and 850/700 lows have to be very close on the ETA/NAM. I'd breathe easier if the low stayed east of Montauk. Block Island to Martha's Vineyard is probably the best spot for us. But either way, we would have an explosive six hours at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, the scary thing is..is this run is believable given the continued amplification trends we have seen in the height field. Also looks like a longer duration event than it did before. Euro showed that too. The famed EE connection of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I really don't think mixing will be an issue nor any dry slotting. Maybe not 18+ but not any less enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As I said before, I was a little leery of the eastern LI jackpot forecasts and always thought that those of us on western LI were in a better location, safer from any mixing ideas. Yeah you are golden where you are--even an increased amplification from here on out won't matter since the low will stay off coast where the Gulf Stream baro zone is. It really can't come any more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Also looks like a longer duration event than it did before. Euro showed that too. The famed EE connection of old. The low begins to take on a more NE trajectory as it bombs off NJ, and cold air/heights just absolutely crater on top of us. If this setup isn't conducive to thundersnow and pretty much just Apocalyptic conditions, I don't know what is!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The low begins to take on a more NE trajectory as it bombs off NJ, and cold air/heights just absolutely crater on top of us. If this setup isn't conducive to thundersnow and pretty much just Apocalyptic conditions, I don't know what is!! This is like December 30th, 2000......on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is gravity wave territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That map looks kind of small; what is it, 1.50-1.75 qpf for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is like December 30th, 2000......on steroids. I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!! And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up. At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah you are golden where you are--even an increased amplification from here on out won't matter since the low will stay off coast where the Gulf Stream baro zone is. It really can't come any more inland. Sorry for being an IMBY weenie here, but do you think the dry slot could possibly impact CT at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That map looks kind of small; what is it, 1.50-1.75 qpf for us? Yep, 12-18" on the Nam for us. This could be a hint at much more amplification and further NW trek for 12z runs, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is gravity wave territory Pretty freakin' cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!! And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up. At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end. Such epic dynamic height falls keep everything cool through the layer. This will undoubtedly have lighting with such extreme dynamically induced height falls. Such an unstable dynamic system...this thing may take on hurricane type characteristics late. I bet this will have an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry for being an IMBY weenie here, but do you think the dry slot could possibly impact CT at all? Its possible but not where you are at....the last time I looked up Dry Slot in the dictionary I got a map of New London, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its possible but not where you are at....the last time I looked up Dry Slot in the dictionary I got a map of New London, CT That's mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't even know what words there are to describe this run. 18"+ in 6-8 hours!!! And the 850 zero line doesn't come as close as I thought it would either-everything looks safely offshore all of LI except maybe the Hamptons east. Man, even if anyone wanted to go to sleep for this the thunder might just wake them up. At its extreme this could be like 2/15/07 upstate, when the coastal finally took over from the OV primary and localized jackpots of 25+ showed up west of Albany and near Lake George/Burlington. There was a band of yellow/orange that was ALL SNOW that sat over people for hours on end. Yeah, the dynamics are just going to be amazing. Look at all of that PVA moving right on top of us. And yeah, this is a very compact storm, and it will have rapid height crashes upon the vort moving over us. That combined with the INSANE dynamics will help to keep the atmosphere very unstable, and dynamically cool the column...wrapping cold air into our system. It's just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Such epic dynamic height falls keep everything cool through the layer. This will undoubtedly have lighting with such extreme dynamically induced height falls. Such an unstable dynamic system...this thing may take on hurricane type characteristics late. I bet this will have an eye. lol Will was talking about how normally this kind of track would cause a changeover but with the storm being so potent and sucking everything in-- reminded me of a black hole, and maybe with those thunderstorms we'll generate some antimatter and a gravity wave to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This hobby is like crack sometimes... now I just want to see the 06z gfs and not sleep, even though im running on dunkin coffee for over 20 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyway, here's the latest UPTON map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its possible but not where you are at....the last time I looked up Dry Slot in the dictionary I got a map of New London, CT Yea I wondered why Groton CT averages less snow in a season than JFK lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z Euro ensembles are in agreement..maybe a hair NW of the OP. A bump north and way more amplified than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyway, here's the latest UPTON map... Upton might be playing catch up with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This hobby is like crack sometimes... now I just want to see the 06z gfs and not sleep, even though im running on dunkin coffee for over 20 hrs. coffee for now, boozing it up tonight , although not that much I wanna be sober to watch the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.