Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 this is absurd, 18 or so hours from an event and nam is showing an MECS while gfs is barely an SECS. I know gfs is supposed to be a long range model, but dont you have to get the short range correct first before you get to the long range? (assuming gfs doesnt score an insane coup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The city won't be ready if this is right... jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope you're in NYC for this storm I'd leave Thursday if I don't leave today. Advice: (EARTHLIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE YOU KNOW YOUR SH!T!) Book the 730 bus to NYC or no? I am so divided. It's only two extra days in DC which would be great to spend with my family, but... THE SNOW... IS SO TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 this is absurd, 18 or so hours from an event and nam is showing an MECS while gfs is barely an SECS. I know gfs is supposed to be a long range model, but dont you have to get the short range correct first before you get to the long range? (assuming gfs doesnt score an insane coup) It won't. GFS is at a HUGE disadvantage both because it is global and runs at an approximate 25 km resolution...but it is not non-hydrostatic and as a global model...it is aggressively filtered. This storm is such a compact low there is a chance the GFS never fully catches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think i danced too much.. we could be dealing with some mixing here... pls pls pls i hope not... but still, that's one heck of a run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.25-.1.50" for the City at hour 30....unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ...Mother of god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow unbelievable solution on the NAM...500mb map looks like nothing I've ever seen before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By hour 30 Northeast NJ, New York City, Southeast NY, Southwest CT have received over 1.25" liquid in 12 hours. That has to be the most unbelievable panel I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just saw the 06z NAM. Proceeded to faint. I pray to thee, 6z NAM, please guide us as the snowpocalypse descends upon NYC once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd rather see the low stay east of Montauk, but if the low is deepening fast enough most of the area should be fine. 12/30/00 crossed LI and I never had a raindrop or sleet pellet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By hour 30 Northeast NJ, New York City, Southeast NY, Southwest CT have received over 1.25" liquid in 12 hours. That has to be the most unbelievable panel I have ever seen. amazing and .75" in 6hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I pray to thee, 6z NAM, please guide us as the snowpocalypse descends upon NYC once again. aww, that's a cute GIF: the girl handing the box of tissue to her brother/friend... I'd rather see the low stay east of Montauk, but if the low is deepening fast enough most of the area should be fine. 12/30/00 crossed LI and I never had a raindrop or sleet pellet. how much west/south do you think the RS line will go?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought I went asleep a few minutes ago, could it be possible I am dreaming? 12hr QPF 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.50" line just reaching NYC at hour 36. Omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd rather see the low stay east of Montauk, but if the low is deepening fast enough most of the area should be fine. 12/30/00 crossed LI and I never had a raindrop or sleet pellet. Ya jm you're far enough west that I wouldn't be worried. I actually want to be home for this one (im in westchester at school) because I think you guys are going to get clobbered. If the 6z NAM is right though, then we're all getting clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 06z ETA For real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Through hr 30... GOOD GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3z ETA is also way west like the NAM. The dryslot is almost a concern now for much of LI if it verified that wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought I went asleep a few minutes ago, could it be possible I am dreaming? 12hr QPF 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought I went asleep a few minutes ago, could it be possible I am dreaming? 12hr QPF 30 hrs I AM COMING TO NYC!!! Could you imagine how ridiculous it would be if we manage three 20"+ events within a year?!? Besides the fact this is almost a lock for FIVE 10"+ events in the span of two winter seasons. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This overnight crew FTW with these images..I am actually laughing hysterically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lmfao@bobby's image but good god if the nam is correct we all get weenies falling on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3z ETA wants to plant the mega-band over NWNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm trying to enjoy this, but I have a horrible stomach bug that keeps me in pain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By hour 30 Northeast NJ, New York City, Southeast NY, Southwest CT have received over 1.25" liquid in 12 hours. That has to be the most unbelievable panel I have ever seen. lol and you thought 12/26 was good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 umm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3z ETA is also way west like the NAM. The dryslot is almost a concern now for much of LI if it verified that wrapped in. Even when the TV Mets were painting that high spot of 18 inches over central and eastern LI, I always felt our location was the best spot to be on long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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