earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 03z SREFs are wetter. Not by much, but the 1" line has expanded a bit west of the city. The 0.5 line is also further W so you can imagine they are expanding the precip field a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You guys are trying to jinx our good luck, aren't you. No, of course not. I've been knocking on wood all day. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, I mean we've just pulled the rabbit out twice from the hat, and it just seems that when the set-up is favorable, the storms appear and don't disappoint If you guys witnessed 95-96, this feels like a repeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Northern stream is a bit faster, and the low is a smidge further NW at 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 03z SREFs are wetter. Not by much, but the 1" line has expanded a bit west of the city. The 0.5 line is also further W so you can imagine they are expanding the precip field a bit. NYC remains on the fringe of 1" for many models, but overall lies in between 1-1.25", but still on the fringe of the heaviest banding.....Whatever. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If you guys witnessed 95-96, this feels like a repeat.... I was 3 years old, so no lol. Last year's winter and this year's winter just feel so nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 impressive how NW the .5" lines goes on the 03z sref's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With this NAM run, a chance this could be tucked in farther W since it is faster and a tick more amplified with the shortwave ridge through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This horse may have been beaten but the SPC WRF generally agrees eastern zones jackpot... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 impressive how NW the .5" lines goes on the 03z sref's. Unrelated to NYC directly, but up this way (Central/western NH), the last storm greatly over performed... AKA the Northwest edge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, this thing might make landfall on LI if this continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hr 18 on the 06z NAM is much further west.. near the coast of VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, this thing might make landfall on LI if this continues... yea... this one is gonna be nuts. just off DEL @ 21 hrs cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unrelated to NYC directly, but up this way (Central/western NH), the last storm greatly over performed... AKA the Northwest edge.... I was just driving through New Hampshire (Manchester to Keene) this afternoon and it's amazing how little snow cover there is compared to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 DC/Balt might be a little happier with the way this is further west....but better for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea... this one is gonna be nuts. NAM looks much better through 18, agreed. Also: Check out the radar out of DC-- http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes That's the composite reflectivity but base shows that we're not that far away from the event beginning. No models had this amount of precip as of yet, FWIW. As I'm in McLean still, pending my decision to take the 730AM bus to NYC, I'll report in on whether we actually do see snow begin well ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The strength of that shortwave is amazing. 06Z, if to believed, has an amazing amount of DPVA directed into that ridge....convection is already going earlier than the 0Z NAM had. This may bring mixing issues onto LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just off ACY @ 24 hrs... heavy snow PHL/ NJ making it into NYC .. wow at h5 850mb 0C line over ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not for nothing but there are a whole lot of sleet reports coming out of the Richmond area... Not sure if they were suppose to flip over this soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Somebody pull up that mother of god image...jesus christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was just driving through New Hampshire (Manchester to Keene) this afternoon and it's amazing how little snow cover there is compared to SNE. I'm in Hanover, specifically. I'm cluttering this thread, so I'll shut up... but there was 12 in that storm... when most of the models had less, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Northern Stream just kicked into high gear, and further NW goes the dynamite. Similar to last night's runs. lol HR 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With plenty more at hour 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Huge huge hit for nyc metro it looks like....back to that dream run of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Significant improvement from 00z, heavy heavy snow at hr 24, NYC already .5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL, NAM wants to put earthlight's house in the jackpot again. Possible big time mixing issues on this run for eastern part of LI with the 850 low tucked on the border of the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Through hr 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Significant improvement from 00z, heavy heavy snow at hr 24, NYC already .5+ I hope you're in NYC for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, the scary thing is..is this run is believable given the continued amplification trends we have seen in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just saw the 06z NAM. Proceeded to faint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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