baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Awesome map. We will know more about the mesoscale banding and frontogenic band developments by tomorrows 12z MM5. Within 30 hours it can be an amazing tool at pinning down the area of heavy banding and subsidence around those bands as well. With that kind of active DT, there is going to be some scary meso banding with this beast and such an active jet. Really the only way this thing can tank out so fast. That is where the surprises will come. We will see how well the models handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For the little that it's worth..the RUC has been amplified since last night and continues to be. Comparing it's images to the NAM grid show that it's definitely more amplified both with the shortwave in the MS Valley and the heights on the east coast. Not a surprise given it's resolution..and the high resolution solutions we have seen tonight which are more amped. Here's the 18 hour forecast...what a beast. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_018s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I will never forget the deepening of that storm or the radar imagery, it's forever stuck in my head. One of the more impressive CCB wrap-arounds I have ever seen. J, Do you have a link to those radar images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do you have a link handy? I would love to read that. I don't but I'm sure its findable on google. There's probably more than 1 writeup on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I will never forget the deepening of that storm or the radar imagery, it's forever stuck in my head. One of the more impressive CCB wrap-arounds I have ever seen. ...and you'll probably see something similar on radar wee hrs. Wed. somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm really impressed by your enthusiasm and contributions to events that don't occur in your area. You've added so much to the discussion here in the NYC metro, even though you live a thousand miles away and probably don't care for all our weenie talk about whose house is going to get nailed. You are a very dedicated and knowledgeable meteorologist, and we appreciate the effort! Nor'easters are such fun events because they are freakish dynamic systems that are so difficult to forecast. They really challenge you and force you to make use of synoptics, dynamics, and mesoscale meteorology. It is definitely fun watching these events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey everyone, Yet another impressive storm to watch! Here's my latest thoughts...but where's everyone thinking the bullseye will be? Will probably have to make a moderate adjustment in a spot or two to my totals tomorrow afternoon, but we'll see what happens! http://hammerweather.blogspot.com/2011/01/todays-tri-state-area-update-brace-for.html Also, I hope NYC sure has a hell of a plan set for this storm! Imagine a major screw-up in only a couple weeks span? Wouldn't be a good thing, that's for sure!! Will be monitoring through the storm, - Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What's interesting is how the deformation and intense frontogenic support is actually developing just southwest or over the region. I can't really remember a storm the past several years where this has happened..for the most part we have events where the CCB is developed and then matures over the area. So I'm not sure which way to lean as far as amounts go..especially on the fringes. With the typical event we can say that the models have a tendency to underdo amounts on the tight NW gradients..where a deform band can set up. But this is a different situation...everything is going bonkers directly overhead. So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There was a huge tropofold in 12/9/05 over SE MA as the storm dumped 16mb in 3 hours...I think there's been a couple writeups on it since then....but it was a similarly dynamic system. And heaviest synoptic snow I've ever witnessed. Had to have been 5"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Aside from the fact the sun angle will have no affect on this whatsoever, Its a shame that parts of LI coould have an inch of liquid (if you buy the high res models) in 3 hours while we sleep (while some sleep). I'd like to see some of that in daylight. 7- 10 AM Weds might be prime viewing time, even if its not as heavy as the preceeding 3 hours. Of course the timing can vary by the time we get to the actual event (along with all the other exciting details). I may have to go to bed early and miss the start for the early AM payoff. Exactly-- I love daytime snowstorms. With that said, if I wake up to heavy snow and it continues up until, say noon, I wont mind...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And likely no sleep until Wednesday night. No way I'm sleeping during up to several inch per hour snow rates. And as for the cold-awesome for sure. At least this one won't be followed by a warmup to the 40s a few days later. This pattern just keeps reloading and reloading!! At this rate this might be a once-in-decades winter. It's unbelievable that some in the Tri-state might be at 40" on the season by the halfway point in the winter. Lol well I got a lot of sleep in today when I got home-- will probably do the same tomorrow before the event starts. I suggest you do the same Dont worry about models right now, JM, just worry about getting enough sleep before the big snow starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If anyone is interested, here is a little blurb/short conference paper of the 12/9/05 event. http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:uCVSpya8ZxkJ:ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/126185.pdf+tropopause+fold+nor'easter&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESj-kwdeRB-hhww-i6BFb4a9Q4ncwzTxWHyKiDFf68X_kjgYH_1wwvxPOFCA6tlkTn81Hu3EMtrCbOalfgiaejoAxuiocLs07y6SlAc-c_A1e4BMv2LTckh2lSeWNIka6Lp6bjvl&sig=AHIEtbSBFYMytrlyadW6iqoSPB7oDDlhNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With that kind of active DT, there is going to be some scary meso banding with this beast and such an active jet. Really the only way this thing can tank out so fast. That is where the surprises will come. We will see how well the models handle it. It's fun watching all the pieces coming together and watching all the heavy bands move in off the radar, even if theyre not in your backyard, just to see something dynamic like that happening shows how powerful mother nature can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 J, Do you have a link to those radar images? http://docs.google.com/viewer?q=cache%3AuCVSpya8ZxkJ%3Aams.confex.com%2Fams%2Fpdfpapers%2F126185.pdf%20tropopause%20fold%20nor&docid=e205278542399742b1da80d5a44aca0f&a=bi&pagenumber=4&w=800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's fun watching all the pieces coming together and watching all the heavy bands move in off the radar, even if theyre not in your backyard, just to see something dynamic like that happening shows how powerful mother nature can be. I am excited about this event because I have never seen one like this. Such a small and compact system. It will be a quick hitter, and systems this dynamic are very unstable (not hydrostatic instability but "dynamic" instability aka very erratic track and non-linear development). No model will fully handle this system well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here you guys go: Powerpoint of the DEC 2005 bomb. ENJOY! http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow8/nrow8.htm Go to 220 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://docs.google.c...enumber=4&w=800 Thanks man. Just like bands in a tropical system. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here you guys go: Powerpoint of the DEC 2005 bomb. ENJOY! It's missing Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lol well I got a lot of sleep in today when I got home-- will probably do the same tomorrow before the event starts. I suggest you do the same Dont worry about models right now, JM, just worry about getting enough sleep before the big snow starts! I'm somewhat of an insomniac by trade, but I CAN'T sleep when these kind of events are knocking on the door. I have a fairly short work day tomorrow (today) so I plan on crashing for a few hours (and securing plenty of hi-quality caffeine) before game time. I napped today when I got home from work too-I'll find time to crash when I can. I'll be wide awake when/if it comes down at multiple inches per hour regardless though. I stayed up all through the 2/25 storm so I can do it again easy. The dynamics are starting to just look ridiculous and the models are really tucking this in and detonating it right offshore. I never thought this storm could rival the 12/26 blizzard in any way, but it's starting to look like this could for a few hours. The duration is really why I can't go for as high a total as that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here you guys go: Powerpoint of the DEC 2005 bomb. ENJOY! http://cstar.cestm.a...nrow8/nrow8.htm Go to 220 PM. Thanks for the link. Lance Bosart is one of my favorite synopticians. He is up there with folks like Fred Sanders when it comes to ground-breaking research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am excited about this event because I have never seen one like this. Such a small and compact system. It will be a quick hitter, and systems this dynamic are very unstable (not hydrostatic instability but "dynamic" instability aka very erratic track and non-linear development). No model will fully handle this system well. Thanks for all your very knowledgeable input, Jason Did you read the article about thunderstorms producing antimatter? I wonder if we shall be producing some tomorrow night and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm somewhat of an insomniac by trade, but I CAN'T sleep when these kind of events are knocking on the door. I have a fairly short work day tomorrow (today) so I plan on crashing for a few hours (and securing plenty of hi-quality caffeine) before game time. I napped today when I got home from work too-I'll find time to crash when I can. I'll be wide awake when/if it comes down at multiple inches per hour regardless though. I stayed up all through the 2/25 storm so I can do it again easy. The dynamics are starting to just look ridiculous and the models are really tucking this in and detonating it right offshore. I never thought this storm could rival the 12/26 blizzard in any way, but it's starting to look like this could for a few hours. The duration is really why I can't go for as high a total as that one. But if it snows through Wednesday what a wonderful birthday present for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is such a quick-hitter, with dynamics pouring over us with intensity. The development of this as it nears us will be impressive, I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm somewhat of an insomniac by trade, but I CAN'T sleep when these kind of events are knocking on the door. I have a fairly short work day tomorrow (today) so I plan on crashing for a few hours (and securing plenty of hi-quality caffeine) before game time. I napped today when I got home from work too-I'll find time to crash when I can. I'll be wide awake when/if it comes down at multiple inches per hour regardless though. I stayed up all through the 2/25 storm so I can do it again easy. The dynamics are starting to just look ridiculous and the models are really tucking this in and detonating it right offshore. I never thought this storm could rival the 12/26 blizzard in any way, but it's starting to look like this could for a few hours. The duration is really why I can't go for as high a total as that one. Welcome to my life. I haven't slept much the past few nights..and certainly didn't sleep for a few days before and during the 12/26 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks for all your very knowledgeable input, Jason Did you read the article about thunderstorms producing antimatter? I wonder if we shall be producing some tomorrow night and Wednesday Haha, I saw something about it in the W/F discussion, but I didn't read it. I will give it a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rather insightful post in the DC thread on pressure falls already, I thought. Just follow the return feature to see the graphic. As a final hurrah post. 1. Notice how the precip field is stopping at fredricksburg. That equates to about 3200' on radar. Note also that the 00z RAOB from IAD had -53°C dew point at about that same height. So all it will do is moisten the air above h7. The longer it goes the more moisture it will virga to help alleviate that dry slot. 2. The frontogenisis along the Carolina coast is being caused by the temperature difference between the gulf stream temperature (58°F) and the land surface temperature ( 28°F). A 30°F temperature difference over 50 miles can cause major mesoscale effects which deepen the low faster than modeled. Which, if you look at the 3 hour pressure difference maps, is already starting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll point out two things here. First, 63 users online is flat out amazing... Find another subgroup (within a subgroup) with that sort of devotion. Second, from afar (I'm at school in NH), I don't have much of a "ball" in the game in NYC. It allows me (as opposed to when I'm home in NYC) to have a better prospective. All I know is that if I were home right now, I would be jumping off walls. This, as I've been telling John (Earthlight), is not the season to be conservative. It's the season where most everything has found a way to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll point out two things here. First, 63 users online is flat out amazing... Find another subgroup (within a subgroup) with that sort of devotion. Second, from afar (I'm at school in NH), I don't have much of a "ball" in the game in NYC. It allows me (as opposed to when I'm home in NYC) to have a better prospective. All I know is that if I were home right now, I would be jumping off walls. This, as I've been telling John (Earthlight), is not the season to be conservative. It's the season where most everything has found a way to go right. Yes, I mean we've just pulled the rabbit out twice from the hat, and it just seems that when the set-up is favorable, the storms appear and don't disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You guys are trying to jinx our good luck, aren't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 03z SREF look the same.. 1" line to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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