baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WRF-ARW not far off either http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_033m.gif Can't wait to watch this one unfold. There will be a lot of surprises with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 looks really good too! So much for some saying it might follow the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map, John lol.... so now this is going from the dreaded short night time event to an extended event where the heaviest snow is from like midnight tomorrow night to Wednesday afternoon?! Most of the real hard hitting stuff looks to be over by 10am Weds, but there could still be accumulating snow after that. The models developing the CCB and back end more thoroughly helps us out in that regard. Still it doesn't look to last as long as the 12/26 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can't wait to watch this one unfold. There will be a lot of surprises with this one Same here. I'm kinda in the worst spot in the Upton CWA (furthest southwest county)...but I have been lucky the past 3 or 4 storms. I will gladly take 6 inches while everybody else gets 20. edit: thats what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Most of the real hard hitting stuff looks to be over by 10am Weds, but there could still be accumulating snow after that. The models developing the CCB and back end more thoroughly helps us out in that regard. Still it doesn't look to last as long as the 12/26 blizzard. No, but Im liking our position in this to get at least a foot of snow and no sun until Thursday with lots of cold to follow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Same here. I'm kinda in the worst spot in the Upton CWA (furthest southwest county)...but I have been lucky the past 3 or 4 storms. I will gladly take 6 inches while everybody else gets 20. edit: thats what she said. Scothch plains should be able to near 10 or more based on the latest data... enjoy, we'll be doing it (tracking) all over again thu for the potential 1/18 - 1/20 storm it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 looks really good too! So much for some saying it might follow the GFS. can you post the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like I'm sitting pretty but wonder if some of the 18" or greater amounts will verify. I think this snow will be wetter than some of the last few events. I don't think we will see ratios over 10-12:1. Anybody have any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Our WRF is showing some incredible banding. Probably like February 1983 snow rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why does Lee Goldberg insist that this will end by morning when all of the models show us getting walloped in 36 hours from now? Weds afternoon looks like the heaviest part! Hour 36 on a 0z Tuesday model is 12z Wednesday, or 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Scothch plains should be able to near 10 or more based on the latest data... enjoy, we'll be doing it (tracking) all over again thu for the potential 1/18 - 1/20 storm it appears Yeah, I saw some of the TV forecasts for Philly even had them in up to 8" of snow so John should be fine with 10+ and probably a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thing i like is that the precip is moving in at night when the temps are the coldest/no sun angle..We are looking at another fluffy storm right? its always best to go with 10:1 ratios but there is potential to get higher than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the MM5...it's probably a little more than this since some more QPF falls after this frame..but not much. It's trended wetter from it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can't wait to watch this one unfold. There will be a lot of surprises with this one I'm really impressed by your enthusiasm and contributions to events that don't occur in your area. You've added so much to the discussion here in the NYC metro, even though you live a thousand miles away and probably don't care for all our weenie talk about whose house is going to get nailed. You are a very dedicated and knowledgeable meteorologist, and we appreciate the effort! Looks like I'm sitting pretty but wonder if some of the 18" or greater amounts will verify. I think this snow will be wetter than some of the last few events. I don't think we will see ratios over 10-12:1. Anybody have any thoughts? I think the snow will be pretty fluffy this time around; 850s are around -5C and we're talking about some insane dynamics. Also, the wind in the 12/26 event served to tear apart the dendrites and reduce ratios by creating smaller flakes...this should be a much quieter storm and that will help to improve ratios. I think 12:1 is a decent call with maybe a bit more in the end of the deformation banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Better GGEM, maps and they are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The SUNY Stonybrook MM5 drops the dynamic tropopause well below 500 hpa with a relatively large fold. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 UKMET not as bas as presumed but clearly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW clown map MOTHER OF GOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW clown map I would pay a lot of money to see that verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thing i like is that the precip is moving in at night when the temps are the coldest/no sun angle..We are looking at another fluffy storm right? its always best to go with 10:1 ratios but there is potential to get higher than that.. Aside from the fact the sun angle will have no affect on this whatsoever, Its a shame that parts of LI coould have an inch of liquid (if you buy the high res models) in 3 hours while we sleep (while some sleep). I'd like to see some of that in daylight. 7- 10 AM Weds might be prime viewing time, even if its not as heavy as the preceeding 3 hours. Of course the timing can vary by the time we get to the actual event (along with all the other exciting details). I may have to go to bed early and miss the start for the early AM payoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW clown map That is so mouth-watering it is not even funny. I mean, another 12"+ storm possible in less than a month, with two months of winter left is mind-boggling, and with signs of the blocking regime to re-build and then breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The SUNY Stonybrook MM5 drops the dynamic tropopause well below 500 hpa with a relatively large fold. Impressive. Awesome map. We will know more about the mesoscale banding and frontogenic band developments by tomorrows 12z MM5. Within 30 hours it can be an amazing tool at pinning down the area of heavy banding and subsidence around those bands as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks Zuck. Didn't take into account the smaller flakes with the 12/26 event. I did see the 850 temps but still wonder if that will translate at sea level. Either way it should be worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, but Im liking our position in this to get at least a foot of snow and no sun until Thursday with lots of cold to follow lol. And likely no sleep until Wednesday night. No way I'm sleeping during up to several inch per hour snow rates. And as for the cold-awesome for sure. At least this one won't be followed by a warmup to the 40s a few days later. This pattern just keeps reloading and reloading!! At this rate this might be a once-in-decades winter. It's unbelievable that some in the Tri-state might be at 40" on the season by the halfway point in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The SUNY Stonybrook MM5 drops the dynamic tropopause well below 500 hpa with a relatively large fold. Impressive. There was a huge tropofold in 12/9/05 over SE MA as the storm dumped 16mb in 3 hours...I think there's been a couple writeups on it since then....but it was a similarly dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hows th euro looking for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There was a huge tropofold in 12/9/05 over SE MA as the storm dumped 16mb in 3 hours...I think there's been a couple writeups on it since then....but it was a similarly dynamic system. Do you have a link handy? I would love to read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Aside from the fact the sun angle will have no affect on this whatsoever, Its a shame that parts of LI coould have an inch of liquid (if you buy the high res models) in 3 hours while we sleep (while some sleep). I'd like to see some of that in daylight. 7- 10 AM Weds might be prime viewing time, even if its not as heavy as the preceeding 3 hours. Of course the timing can vary by the time we get to the actual event (along with all the other exciting details). I may have to go to bed early and miss the start for the early AM payoff. My live cam will be up and running as of 12 am on Wednesday morning. Thinking of hooking up some additional outdoor lighting while it's still dark. My neighbors may not like it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There was a huge tropofold in 12/9/05 over SE MA as the storm dumped 16mb in 3 hours...I think there's been a couple writeups on it since then....but it was a similarly dynamic system. I will never forget the deepening of that storm or the radar imagery, it's forever stuck in my head. One of the more impressive CCB wrap-arounds I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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