snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some parts of NYC will be upwards of 40" by Jan. 15 ...lol comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yep, doing that now!! have to make myself a makeshift yardstick--i don't have one... home depot 66cents got it earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, nam lead the way. Euro has bowed. Saddle up, boys. NAM is a SECSy model a lot of the time... she is so damn insistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No doubt the winners will be somewhere in LI and SNE given the h5 formation and timing..... but its amazing how this doesn't want to give in for NYC and surrounding area's as a 6-12" storm. Great signals for 'mega' band covering area's just west of nyc and going east. Looks more like 12"+ from Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean counties east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If I was in E LI I would be running around doing the dougie.. damnnnn! Would be shocked not to see SN++ reported and 20"+. I'm sorry, I know this board is full of weather weenies and I *do* like the snow, but I hate shoveling it and I hate getting stuck in my house for days. This is nuts. It looks like this storm is going to be worse than the Boxing Day Blizzard for Suffolk County. Why does Lee Goldberg insist that this will end by morning when all of the models show us getting walloped in 36 hours from now? Weds afternoon looks like the heaviest part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS/Ukie FTL!! Haha, I didn't even include the UK in the discussion since it is such an awful model. Its high verification scores don't tell the whole truth. How it manages to score so well I do not know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm sorry, I know this board is full of weather weenies and I *do* like the snow, but I hate shoveling it and I hate getting stuck in my house for days. This is nuts. It looks like this storm is going to be worse than the Boxing Day Blizzard for Suffolk County. I bet you could hire some snow weenies to come shovel for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anybody with me when I say I would probably give my right pinky for this to verify? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_slp_033m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro QPF map is on the last page for those who didn't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why do the twin forks do worse than areas to their west? I posted earlier that it has a QPF bomb..I wouldn't worry at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm sorry, I know this board is full of weather weenies and I *do* like the snow, but I hate shoveling it and I hate getting stuck in my house for days. This is nuts. It looks like this storm is going to be worse than the Boxing Day Blizzard for Suffolk County. Snowfall wise likely but less winds. Still windy out there though. Could see Blizz warnings for E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.25 line literally right over my house. good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think we should give some insight to the gfs/Ukie. I mean it's fairly obvious that we're not in perfect agreement and things are not set in stone. I wouldn't be shocked if the end result was along the lines of the gfs at least and I wouldn't be surprised if the other models shift slightly east with the low and QPF. Regardless of what happens, parts of central and eastern LI will most likely be in the jackpot zones pending any mixing with local amounts probably up to 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anybody with me when I say I would probably give my right pinky for this to verify? http://www.nco.ncep....sw_slp_033m.gif At the very least the middle finger I flipped off at the GFS for most of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone see this from the americanwx WRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Our in-house model now producing a big hit for most of the area. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone see this from the americanwx WRF? Where did you get this? I didn't know it was running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think we should give some insight to the gfs/Ukie. I mean it's fairly obvious that we're not in perfect agreement and things are not set in stone. I wouldn't be shocked if the end result was along the lines of the gfs at least and I wouldn't be surprised if the other models shift slightly east with the low and QPF. Regardless of what happens, parts of central and eastern LI will most likely be in the jackpot zones pending any mixing with local amounts probably up to 18". I wouldn't bother with the UK. The GFS will correct itself sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where did you get this? I didn't know it was running. One the models page. http://models.americanwx.com/[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CCB just getting going at 30 hrs, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, nam lead the way. Euro has bowed. Saddle up, boys. YH, I fully expect to see another award winning movie of your back yard Our local TV mets seem to be coming out with a consensus of 8-14 inches for NYC and 14-18 inches for Long Island and LHV/CT.... let's see if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 10-12" is a small range, but it's an accurate range I believe for the City based on most QPF output, but obviously 8-12" is less likely to contain busts. lol Another big storm for the Coast, such strong and fervent development as it nears LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map, John lol.... so now this is going from the dreaded short night time event to an extended event where the heaviest snow is from like midnight tomorrow night to Wednesday afternoon?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CCB just getting going at 30 hrs, too Good, now maybe we can put those quick hitting storm ideas to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map, John lol.... so now this is going from the dreaded short night time event to an extended event where the heaviest snow is from like midnight tomorrow night to Wednesday afternoon?! Euro actually has light precipitation from 06z Wednesday through 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowfall wise likely but less winds. Still windy out there though. Could see Blizz warnings for E LI. Sustained winds here of 20-30, could mean some gusts of 40+.... though I dont know if they'll verify the "frequent" gusts of 35 + for three hours straight plus quarter mile and lower visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The AmericanWx WRF simuating 50+ dbz reflectivities at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 10-12" is a small range, but it's an accurate range I believe for the City based on most QPF output, but obviously 8-12" is less likely to contain busts. lol Another big storm for the Coast, such strong and fervent development as it nears LI. Id go with 8-14 inches for NYC just to be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The AmericanWx WRF simuating 50+ dbz reflectivities at hour 30. WRF-ARW not far off either http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_ref_033m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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