Storm At Sea Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why is anyone looking at anything but the SREF's at this point in time? Watching each run of the GFS and NAM at this point is likely not the best way to be spending your evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at mm5 h5 and slp at hour 30 and hearing someone say that it looks like GFS? What? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm just hoping to get my 6" of snow, I'm not going to be greedy and ask for anymore, .50" of QPF will do. Even the gfs would allow me to get 6" at least. This should be a nice storm for most of us, nothing major, but a good hit nonetheless. That's what we have to keep in mind! The DRIEST model is a 5-8" snowstorm. Years ago, 5-8" would have us dancing in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 not sure what it means at this stage but the GEFS is coming in wetter than the 0Z Op - total qpf at 42 is .75+ for E NJ and NYC.. Edit - Closer to 1' for NYC at 54. More east in LI obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at mm5 h5 and slp at hour 30 and hearing someone say that it looks like GFS? What? No way. Not what i said.... So before you jump to that reread what i said. I said it looks like the solution looks closer to the GFS then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's what we have to keep in mind! The DRIEST model is a 5-8" snowstorm. Years ago, 5-8" would have us dancing in the streets. most of hte 70's 80's and 90's.. a six incher would be a very big deal..how soon we forget what a real snow drought is all about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 at 30 is 2 mb deeper and 75 miles south of GFS, a hair west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GEFS means are wetter than the OP with 0.75 into NJ..but drier than 18z with 1" line east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. the bench mark is 40//70, this is not the BM. Also, there are many MM5's, the one being posted is the Suny MM5, its always good to qualify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. Wow. Rapid deepening on the mm5, 3mb in 1 hour. Don't know if I believe that but impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys: Where the banding sets up is absolutely key to these setups. I know for a fact that I was under higher (in some runs much higher) QPF than Earthlight was just before the 12/26 storm, but he ended up with 8-10" more snow than I did. Montauk had slightly less QPF than me, but they ended up with 5" vs me with 20". Dynamic systems are extremely reliant on the location and setups of heavy snow bands, which can set themselves up pretty much anywhere where models show the general area of heavy precip. I think it's more important to pay attention to that, whether the exact output is 0.70" vs 1.40", etc. Look at the 700mb lift charts, the location and extent of the 700 and 850 low cutoffs, and where the generally most optimal areas of lift/growth/frontogenesis are. That's where the best bands set up, and those areas will cash in. Model QPF, even on the NAM is smoothed out and doesn't pick up on very small scale features like this. What we're seeing now is that areas from at least the Garden State Parkway and perhaps even back west of I-287 east are "in the game" for experiencing these features and localized jackpot totals that many might not see otherwise just looking at the raw QPF number. As for the GFS= Shorter range models become much useful at this stage and by tomorrow it's about time for nowcasting. Unless there's a massive lurch in one direction by a group of models, no one should be concerned about being "out of the game". 95% of us still are and will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. What? The surface low is hundreds of miles southwest of the benchmark at hour 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. what bench mark is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the bench mark is 40//70, this is not the BM. Also, there are many MM5's, the one being posted is the Suny MM5, its always good to qualify Sorry. Didn't see the 40 on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. Huh? It's S and W of the BM at 33hrs! What are you looking at if you mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr33 on the mm5 has a 999mb low right about at the BM. I was confused and frightened for a moment Did not jibe with what I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what bench mark is that? well, its possible that because magnetic north has shifted the BM has shifted too, however, i does appear to be very sw of the 40/70 demarcation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Judging by the surface low position and the isobars now nudging northeast...NYC will probably be fringed with the best banding on the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys: Where the banding sets up is absolutely key to these setups. I know for a fact that I was under higher (in some runs much higher) QPF than Earthlight was just before the 12/26 storm, but he ended up with 8-10" more snow than I did. Montauk had slightly less QPF than me, but they ended up with 5" vs me with 20". Dynamic systems are extremely reliant on the location and setups of heavy snow bands, which can set themselves up pretty much anywhere where models show the general area of heavy precip. I think it's more important to pay attention to that, whether the exact output is 0.70" vs 1.40", etc. Look at the 700mb lift charts, the location and extent of the 700 and 850 low cutoffs, and where the generally most optimal areas of lift/growth/frontogenesis are. That's where the best bands set up, and those areas will cash in. Model QPF, even on the NAM is smoothed out and doesn't pick up on very small scale features like this. What we're seeing now is that areas from at least the Garden State Parkway and perhaps even back west of I-287 east are "in the game" for experiencing these features and localized jackpot totals that many might not see otherwise just looking at the raw QPF number. As for the GFS= Shorter range models become much useful at this stage and by tomorrow it's about time for nowcasting. Unless there's a massive lurch in one direction by a group of models, no one should be concerned about being "out of the game". 95% of us still are and will be tomorrow. Did you notice that the GFS, once we got inside 48 hours, continuously got drier for the 12/26 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. MM5 is no where near GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did you notice that the GFS, once we got inside 48 hours, continuously got drier for the 12/26 storm? It may be the case, but I always look at the upper air charts before I look at the surface and QPF. The 700 and 850 lows particularly are more key than the surface panel, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 36 hours suny mm5, this is the limit for this models range, looks like a nice spot to be 36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Through 36..still leaves a bit to be desired if you want the big amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah especially the final 2 or 3 runs before the storm started. But this time it hasn't really gotten that much drier. It's just always been on the drier side of the model suite. Did you notice that the GFS, once we got inside 48 hours, continuously got drier for the 12/26 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. MM5 is no where near GFS. That's not such a bad thing if it was like the gfs or close to it though. It's not like the gfs would be a big bust especially for the city on east. If the gfs only showed 1-3", then yeah it'd be bad but .50 QPF sounds pretty good to me. We might also get some higher ratios like 1:11 or 1:12 which would help us out even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW at 30 hours. Looks like the Nam or even slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah especially the final 2 or 3 runs before the storm started. But this time it hasn't really gotten that much drier. It's just always been on the drier side of the model suite. QPF numbers on the GFS are actually a bit wetter than 18Z, and very close to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That being said..it is a good bit wetter throughout the entire area compared to it's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow at the ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW through 36...still coming down heavily. NMM is west and very amped up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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