isnice Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If this is true, Mt. Holly needs to update some areas in warnings to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM is still good...but it's actually pretty close to letting the surface low escape like the GFS at 30-36 hrs. You can watch the evolution aloft and compare to 18z to see what's going on. Not saying it's right, wrong, etc or the GFS is right, wrong, etc...just speaking to the fragility of the big amped up solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z MM5 has some pretty big changes since it's 12z run. It's digging the shortwave more..the surface low is further northwest, but the heights on the east coast might be a hair less amplified. Trough 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I find it hard to believe that despite all the new info all the 0z models receive, 8 extra dropsondes and a few flights recorders produced such a dramatically different model output. The gfs has been showing this for several runs. It's not like it changed to an eastern outlier just tonight with the extra data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I find it hard to believe that despite all the new info all the 0z models receive, 8 extra dropsondes and a few flights recorders produced such a dramatically different model output. The gfs has been showing this for several runs. It's not like it changed to an eastern outlier just tonight with the extra data. I'm not entirely sure how much difference it makes here (especially since it's downstream), but I've seen numerous studies showing how much it improves tropical cyclone track forecasts in global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see the MM5 go east this run based on it's H5 depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Perhaps I should not mention TV mets... Forget I said anything His just said 2-5 inches for southern Monmouth county and 1-3 inches for southern ocean county due to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see the MM5 go east this run based on it's H5 depiction Its a progressive model beyond 36 hours so its just now coming into its range, 12z tomorrow and of course tomorrow night 00z will be its kills zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see the MM5 go east this run based on it's H5 depiction not good since its getting in the mm5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys, stick to the storm discussion, not the forecasters. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not entirely sure how much difference it makes here (especially since it's downstream), but I've seen numerous studies showing how much it improves tropical cyclone track forecasts in global models. One would think that, all things being equal, better initial conditions, via a more robust input dataset, would equal a more accurate model description of expected events. Certainly has to give one pause if one is hoping for more than 8" anywhere in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its a progressive model beyond 36 hours so its just now coming into its range, 12z tomorrow and of course tomorrow night 00z will be its kills zone. I remember the MM5 as the model weenies cling to in situations where it's too warm for the coast. It would always show a colder progressive solution therefore making it the weenie's last bastion of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Suny MM5 at 24 hours H5. Certainly earthlight has the eye for this stuff, but doesn't look bad to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 One would think that, all things being equal, better initial conditions, via a more robust input dataset, would equal a more accurate model description of expected events. Certainly has to give one pause if one is hoping for more than 8" anywhere in NJ. Unfortunately, not all initial conditions are created equally. I'm not good enough to tell you where the sensitivity is in this particular set of model runs, but I wouldn't have guessed over the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unfortunately, not all initial conditions are created equally. I'm not good enough to tell you where the sensitivity is in this particular set of model runs, but I wouldn't have guessed over the North Atlantic. I would have thought over the Northern Plains, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM 48 total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Suny MM5 at 24 hours H5. Certainly earthlight has the eye for this stuff, but doesn't look bad to me Feel the same. Compared with previous run and it's difficult to predict whether the outcome will be favorable or unfavorable. The usual digginess, amplification, and height rises aren't quite to reliable a predictor in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FYI, 25mm = 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FYI, 25mm = 1" I believe it's 25.4 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 4KM View at 27 hours sunny mm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 500 mb 36km view Sunny MM5 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 4KM View at 27 hours sunny mm5 To my eye, looks like this is going to be closer a solution to the GFS then the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I believe it's 25.4 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 To my eye, looks like this is going to be closer a solution to the GFS then the NAM Maybe. I'd guess in between. The GFS track isn't bad at all. The problem is the anemic moisture circulation around the mid-level low... it's wrapped tightly around the redeveloped coastal center and does not extend back into the larger scale circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM is good - more similar to rgem/nam http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 looks like it will be a bit deeper as GFS is only 2mb deeper 200 miles north of suny's 27hr position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM is good - more similar to rgem/nam http://www.weatherof...ast/530_100.gif Yes.. Looks like close to 1 inch liquid in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 at 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im just going to make a statement here that i hope will be constructively taken and evaluated. From past storms i always have remembered that being under the 850MB low is killer. The best position is always about 100 miles N and W of the 850 low. WIth that said most of NJ's Precip is shown when we are either E or under the 850 low before it transfers fully to the coastal low. To me this is a huge red flag and is cause for major pause.... Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm just hoping to get my 6" of snow, I'm not going to be greedy and ask for anymore, .50" of QPF will do. Even the gfs would allow me to get 6" at least. This should be a nice storm for most of us, nothing major, but a good hit nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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