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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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The NAM is still good...but it's actually pretty close to letting the surface low escape like the GFS at 30-36 hrs. You can watch the evolution aloft and compare to 18z to see what's going on.

Not saying it's right, wrong, etc or the GFS is right, wrong, etc...just speaking to the fragility of the big amped up solutions.

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I find it hard to believe that despite all the new info all the 0z models receive, 8 extra dropsondes and a few flights recorders produced such a dramatically different model output. The gfs has been showing this for several runs. It's not like it changed to an eastern outlier just tonight with the extra data.

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I find it hard to believe that despite all the new info all the 0z models receive, 8 extra dropsondes and a few flights recorders produced such a dramatically different model output. The gfs has been showing this for several runs. It's not like it changed to an eastern outlier just tonight with the extra data.

I'm not entirely sure how much difference it makes here (especially since it's downstream), but I've seen numerous studies showing how much it improves tropical cyclone track forecasts in global models.

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I'm not entirely sure how much difference it makes here (especially since it's downstream), but I've seen numerous studies showing how much it improves tropical cyclone track forecasts in global models.

One would think that, all things being equal, better initial conditions, via a more robust input dataset, would equal a more accurate model description of expected events. Certainly has to give one pause if one is hoping for more than 8" anywhere in NJ.

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Its a progressive model beyond 36 hours so its just now coming into its range, 12z tomorrow and of course tomorrow night 00z will be its kills zone.

I remember the MM5 as the model weenies cling to in situations where it's too warm for the coast. It would always show a colder progressive solution therefore making it the weenie's last bastion of hope.

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One would think that, all things being equal, better initial conditions, via a more robust input dataset, would equal a more accurate model description of expected events. Certainly has to give one pause if one is hoping for more than 8" anywhere in NJ.

Unfortunately, not all initial conditions are created equally. I'm not good enough to tell you where the sensitivity is in this particular set of model runs, but I wouldn't have guessed over the North Atlantic.

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Suny MM5 at 24 hours H5. Certainly earthlight has the eye for this stuff, but doesn't look bad to me

Feel the same. Compared with previous run and it's difficult to predict whether the outcome will be favorable or unfavorable. The usual digginess, amplification, and height rises aren't quite to reliable a predictor in this scenario.

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Guest stormchaser

4KM View at 27 hours sunny mm5

slp.27.0000.gif

To my eye, looks like this is going to be closer a solution to the GFS then the NAM

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To my eye, looks like this is going to be closer a solution to the GFS then the NAM

Maybe. I'd guess in between.

The GFS track isn't bad at all. The problem is the anemic moisture circulation around the mid-level low... it's wrapped tightly around the redeveloped coastal center and does not extend back into the larger scale circulation.

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Guest stormchaser

Im just going to make a statement here that i hope will be constructively taken and evaluated. From past storms i always have remembered that being under the 850MB low is killer. The best position is always about 100 miles N and W of the 850 low. WIth that said most of NJ's Precip is shown when we are either E or under the 850 low before it transfers fully to the coastal low. To me this is a huge red flag and is cause for major pause....

Thoughts?

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