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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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i think the GFS is an outlier, and will be discounted by Upton. They will tick up totals for the the morning package in my humble opinion. It should be no surprise, given the AFD's from their office for the last few days, that they have continuously discounted this model for this storm for a myriad of reasons, and tonight might be the last straw, with the NAM/RGEM alliance at the final stretch run to this event...

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what scares me is the sharp cut off and late blooming miller B's by our area...i mean there is a bit of bust potential here......I have my eyes set on 6 right now and anything more would be great....i would feel alot better about the nam if the euro backs it up tonight...or holds serve from 12z.........the 12z euro seems the middel road between the 00z suits of the nam and gfs

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The GFS is pretty much a long range model anyway. The short range hi res models are the way to go from here on out.

I dont think thats entirely true...you have to give the gfs and euro some weight here....nam also has a bias of being to wet....just saying we cant pick and choose what we want to believe.....i really like to take a middel road with this and go 12z euro.....

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For what its worth, the GFS is getting a little help with more data:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011

00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING

AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS

WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT

LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR

THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR

EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE...

XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT.

$

00z GFS has western Atlantic dropsonde and flight level recon data in it. What if it's right!?!?!

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I dont think thats entirely true...you have to give the gfs and euro some weight here....nam also has a bias of being to wet....just saying we cant pick and choose what we want to believe.....i really like to take a middel road with this and go 12z euro.....

hmm not much though. Within 24-48 hrs of the storm, you have to give much more weight to the short term models here imo. :weight_lift:

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