NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am just curious what the ratios will end up being for this. The snow total is pretty impressive even with a 10:1 ratio. Thoughts? 12:1 is the highest it will get for ISP in my opinion. This is going to be one of the heavier wet snows that we typically see with these bombing coastals that bring borderline freezing air right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM precip maps show low pretty far west, compared to 18z and 12z. Also has a 986 low. NAM I believe at 36 hours was a 992 low. Waiting on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is a very nice hit, very west Has all of the area (NJ/NYC in the 10 - 25 MM range with center 35 mm over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We would have to go back and look at 850s as well, as those definitely play a role in ratios. Yea but there was a ton of winds as well with the boxing day storm. That affects ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that is 996, not 986 RGEM precip maps show low pretty far west, compared to 18z and 12z. Also has a 986 low. NAM I believe at 36 hours was a 992 low. Waiting on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that is 996, not 986 Yeah. Saw it. Here is 36. A substantial hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JFK has -14C temps at 700mb during the height of the storm and they are on the south shore. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly fluffier snow? I know ratios never get very high no matter what around here but it could be enough to inflate the final tally by a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah. Saw it. Here is 36. A substantial hit. yup that 36 is basically over my/A-L-E-X house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is showing 36 mm for mid LI hours 24-36 and close to 20mm for NYC. Am I reading that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is a very nice hit, very west Has all of the area (NJ/NYC in the 10 - 25 MM range with center 35 mm over LI 1 inch in/around nyc, 1.25 (+)as you go east into LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JFK has -14C temps at 700mb during the height of the storm and they are on the south shore. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly fluffier snow? I know ratios never get very high no matter what around here but it could be enough to inflate the final tally by a couple inches. 700MB is a very important level fr snow growth...im sure one of the qualified Mets can expand on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is showing 36 mm for mid LI hours 24-36 and close to 20mm for NYC. Am I reading that wrong? The range is 10 - 25 but nyc is right next to the 25mm mark. With between 1 and 5 post 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12:1 is the highest it will get for ISP in my opinion. This is going to be one of the heavier wet snows that we typically see with these bombing coastals that bring borderline freezing air right to the coast. Thanks much for the answer... I had anticipated lower ratios because of the temps being close to the freezing mark, but also have a serious lack of knowledge regarding the other dynamics that make up these storms, and thought I would seek an expert's opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is showing 36 mm for mid LI hours 24-36 and close to 20mm for NYC. Am I reading that wrong? yup- that 36MM is equal to about 1.417" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is showing 36 mm for mid LI hours 24-36 and close to 20mm for NYC. Am I reading that wrong? I'd say that's accurate. NYC is in the 10-25mm range and much closer to the 25mm, so 20mm is probably a good guess there. That's about .80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd say that's accurate. NYC is in the 10-25mm range and much closer to the 25mm, so 20mm is probably a good guess there. That's about .80. Thats what I counted and theres a smidge of 1 - 5 mm after. So id say NYC is right on the 1 inch line give or take an mm. Very nice and very close the nam. I wonder if we see a continued west trend over the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The range is 10 - 25 but nyc is right next to the 25mm mark. With between 1 and 5 post 36 Thanks. So NYC is right around 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yup- that 36MM is equal to about 1.417" With a little more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks. So NYC is right around 1". Close to it, more than anything its suport for the nam, and id expect the gfs to come in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 700MB is a very important level fr snow growth...im sure one of the qualified Mets can expand on that... I haven't looked at any soundings yet, but you would also have to look at how deep the DGZ is, which is a good indicator of the type of snow growth your going to get, given good lift through that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd say that's accurate. NYC is in the 10-25mm range and much closer to the 25mm, so 20mm is probably a good guess there. That's about .80. Plus the 1-5 that falls after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the way, you can break down the RGEM products here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Color maps. Very close to NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the way, you can break down the RGEM products here. If you have a username and password? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If you have a username and password? Try it again, I edited it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs def not going to be as wet as the nam...it has been consitant i will give it that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JFK has -14C temps at 700mb during the height of the storm and they are on the south shore. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly fluffier snow? I know ratios never get very high no matter what around here but it could be enough to inflate the final tally by a couple inches. I don't want fluffier snow. It melts too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS looks pretty much a hold of serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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