Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.examiner....846/edit/extras Very nice map.....good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Surface low track will likely not change much but that doesnt mean the areas of best lift and thus best precip won't shift a litttle. Models always struggle as to where this will line up which is why the hi res models like ARW, NMM, and MM5 are so important right before the event. So, if the best deform lines up differently than where the NAM is showing it right now, the best qpf may move, but that doesnt mean the surface low did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Over the course of the storm we end up being in the left exit jet region in 2 separate jet streaks. One at 03z and the other at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boston through CT and LI get amazingly creamed on this run. It could reach Boxing Day totals for them if not surpass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Surface low track will likely not change much but that doesnt mean the areas of best lift and thus best precip won't shift a litttle. Models always struggle as to where this will line up which is why the hi res models like ARW, NMM, and MM5 are so important right before the event. So, if the best deform lines up differently than where the NAM is showing it right now, the best qpf may move, but that doesnt mean the surface low did. Is that how central jersey (in a vertical fashion not horizontal) wound up getting hammered two weeks ago even though the heavier bands were progged for just a bit east of there? I mean there is a .50 inches difference in literally 20 miles on western Long Island. That is a very tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boston through CT and LI get amazingly creamed on this run. It could reach Boxing Day totals for them if not surpass. Not really. So much is different with this storm. That storm was stronger and lasted for longer period of time. But this one can still have some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM says E LI gets 1.25" in 6 hrs... http://www.nco.ncep....am_p06_036l.gif If it is close to accurate this will make things very difficult for the plows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boston through CT and LI get amazingly creamed on this run. It could reach Boxing Day totals for them if not surpass. Considering a good chunk of CT failed to reach double digits in the Boxing Day Blizzard, that won't be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If anyone is going to have precip issues in NYC metro..it's south shore on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If it is close to accurate this will make things very difficult for the plows. There is no doubt that heavy snow will fall over LI but if the NAM is even close... it will be impossible to drive/plow the streets for a good 6hrs if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 20 - 30 inches for boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Much of the places that got nailed picked up the bulk of their snow in 8 to 10 hours, in some cases over 20" so duration isn't necessarily the key. If a 2 -3 " /hr band forms over the right area which the NAM seems to be hinting at, then it could happen again. East of NYC this time though not west Not really. So much is different with this storm. That storm was stronger and lasted for longer period of time. But this one can still have some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Polls are closed and here are the results NYC : 1.02 EWR : 0.89 TEB : 0.93 MMU : 0.70 BLM : 1.01 LGA: 1.09 JFK : 1.20 ISP : 1.72 BOS : 1.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Over the course of the storm we end up being in the left exit jet region in 2 separate jet streaks. One at 03z and the other at 12z and I assume this is very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.72 all frozen at KISP. That's one hell of a total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thats a strong signal for mesoscale banding, as we know expect some subsidence and decreased snow on either side of these bands, especially on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Polls are closed and here are the results NYC : 1.02 EWR : 0.89 TEB : 0.93 MMU : 0.70 BLM : 1.01 LGA: 1.09 JFK : 1.20 ISP : 1.72 BOS : 1.79 officially JFK recorded .99 on 12/26 and had 15" of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that how central jersey (in a vertical fashion not horizontal) wound up getting hammered two weeks ago even though the heavier bands were progged for just a bit east of there? I mean there is a .50 inches difference in literally 20 miles on western Long Island. That is a very tight gradient. So much goes into actual precip rates. The model shows you a smoothed picture but that isn't how precip falls, especially banded precip. The banding in the boxing day storm and in a lot of storms like 2006 was actually progged to be a bit east of where it actually set up. In fact, when dealing with storms with little to np over running and mostly banded precip, there is going to be sharp cut off, but also areas that necessarily outside the cutoff that will have lower totals because they were in between bands and had subsidence, or downward motion. I would also be very wary of any model which shows high qpf totals over valleys like the CT river valley (see RSM up near Springfield MA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what are the chances we see some mixing near KISP...?? the low tracks very close to LI on this run right..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Much of the places that got nailed picked up the bulk of their snow in 8 to 10 hours, in some cases over 20" so duration isn't necessarily the key. If a 2 -3 " /hr band forms over the right area which the NAM seems to be hinting at, then it could happen again. East of NYC this time though not west In order for areas to receive that amount of snowfall again, they would have to be under a deform band for over 80% of the duration of the storm. That isn't going to happen. I wish (since I live east of NYC) but it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thats a strong signal for mesoscale banding, as we know expect some subsidence and decreased snow on either side of these bands, especially on the western side. yea.. there is def going to be a big jump in numbers over some area where the 'mega' band forms. Could be over NJ or more east over the city somewhere. I could see locations going from 6-8" to 12"+ not too far over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 and I assume this is very favorable Yes. That would induce lots of upward motion which will lead to heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 officially JFK recorded .99 on 12/26 and had 15" of snow.... the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get. We would have to go back and look at 850s as well, as those definitely play a role in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what are the chances we see some mixing near KISP...?? the low tracks very close to LI on this run right..? It possible that KISP mixes with sleet for a period of time. Those chances definitely increase as you go further east on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1.72 all frozen at KISP. That's one hell of a total. I am just curious what the ratios will end up being for this. The snow total is pretty impressive even with a 10:1 ratio. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We would have to go back and look at 850s as well, as those definitely play a role in ratios. Not too bad up this way with the 850s QPF is at 0.82 on the NAM. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get. Although the low levels may be slightly warmer this storm, the potential for good snow ratios and great dendrite production is very high. At LGA between 2-7AM on the NAM omegas top out near -35 within the snow growth zone (-12 to -18C). Relative humidity fluctuates between 90-100% during that time = good stuff and great banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So what are we... 24 hours out now? When should it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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