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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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Surface low track will likely not change much but that doesnt mean the areas of best lift and thus best precip won't shift a litttle. Models always struggle as to where this will line up which is why the hi res models like ARW, NMM, and MM5 are so important right before the event. So, if the best deform lines up differently than where the NAM is showing it right now, the best qpf may move, but that doesnt mean the surface low did.

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Surface low track will likely not change much but that doesnt mean the areas of best lift and thus best precip won't shift a litttle. Models always struggle as to where this will line up which is why the hi res models like ARW, NMM, and MM5 are so important right before the event. So, if the best deform lines up differently than where the NAM is showing it right now, the best qpf may move, but that doesnt mean the surface low did.

Is that how central jersey (in a vertical fashion not horizontal) wound up getting hammered two weeks ago even though the heavier bands were progged for just a bit east of there? I mean there is a .50 inches difference in literally 20 miles on western Long Island. That is a very tight gradient.

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Boston through CT and LI get amazingly creamed on this run. It could reach Boxing Day totals for them if not surpass.

Not really. So much is different with this storm. That storm was stronger and lasted for longer period of time. But this one can still have some impressive totals.

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If it is close to accurate this will make things very difficult for the plows.

There is no doubt that heavy snow will fall over LI but if the NAM is even close... it will be impossible to drive/plow the streets for a good 6hrs if not more.

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Much of the places that got nailed picked up the bulk of their snow in 8 to 10 hours, in some cases over 20" so duration isn't necessarily the key. If a 2 -3 " /hr band forms over the right area which the NAM seems to be hinting at, then it could happen again. East of NYC this time though not west

Not really. So much is different with this storm. That storm was stronger and lasted for longer period of time. But this one can still have some impressive totals.

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Is that how central jersey (in a vertical fashion not horizontal) wound up getting hammered two weeks ago even though the heavier bands were progged for just a bit east of there? I mean there is a .50 inches difference in literally 20 miles on western Long Island. That is a very tight gradient.

So much goes into actual precip rates. The model shows you a smoothed picture but that isn't how precip falls, especially banded precip. The banding in the boxing day storm and in a lot of storms like 2006 was actually progged to be a bit east of where it actually set up.

In fact, when dealing with storms with little to np over running and mostly banded precip, there is going to be sharp cut off, but also areas that necessarily outside the cutoff that will have lower totals because they were in between bands and had subsidence, or downward motion.

I would also be very wary of any model which shows high qpf totals over valleys like the CT river valley (see RSM up near Springfield MA).

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Much of the places that got nailed picked up the bulk of their snow in 8 to 10 hours, in some cases over 20" so duration isn't necessarily the key. If a 2 -3 " /hr band forms over the right area which the NAM seems to be hinting at, then it could happen again. East of NYC this time though not west

In order for areas to receive that amount of snowfall again, they would have to be under a deform band for over 80% of the duration of the storm. That isn't going to happen. I wish (since I live east of NYC) but it won't.

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thats a strong signal for mesoscale banding, as we know expect some subsidence and decreased snow on either side of these bands, especially on the western side.

yea.. there is def going to be a big jump in numbers over some area where the 'mega' band forms. Could be over NJ or more east over the city somewhere. I could see locations going from 6-8" to 12"+ not too far over.

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officially JFK recorded .99 on 12/26 and had 15" of snow....

the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get.

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the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get.

We would have to go back and look at 850s as well, as those definitely play a role in ratios.

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the 12/26 blizzard was super cold though. Temps in the low 20s at the height of the storm. i think even with the QPF at JFK, it still amounts to around 15 if the temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. can anyone talk about the temps for this storm in relation to 12/26? I don't mean to come off like i'm knocking your assertion at all BTW. Just tring to get an insight into the "fluff" vs we factor of the snowfall we're going to get.

Although the low levels may be slightly warmer this storm, the potential for good snow ratios and great dendrite production is very high. At LGA between 2-7AM on the NAM omegas top out near -35 within the snow growth zone (-12 to -18C). Relative humidity fluctuates between 90-100% during that time = good stuff and great banding

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