Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the nam lines up with the srefs run well...inch kissing the city.... and .75+ eastern nj...LI crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good event for most, Long Island wins this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone got a closeup of that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thru 36 Hrs- .75-1.00" on the NAM for the Metro Area, with possibly more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good event for most, Long Island wins this one! Looks like it, the best dynamics could still shift a tad to the NW though, we saw that happen in the final few hours with the last blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yikes! watch out LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 .75-1. West of NYC.. Then massive increase as you go across long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ah my bad, for some reason I was under the impression a faster upper level low would not be a good thing. But that makes sense being the faster the capture, the stronger the storm. Still learning... That is why you want it to be a tad faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 after just seeing the 0z NAM at 36hrs I had to jump into this thread for a bit to make sure you guys are keeping it in your pants lol. can't believe some of you lucky SOB's are going to get rick rolled again. looking on the NCEP maps, sfc low goes from 1012mb to 992mb in 12hrs....umm can you say bombogenesis x2 anyone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For NYC, I think the trends are great. It's been nothing but a slow inch westward each time with heaviest precip and I wouldnt be surprised if by tomorrow NYC gets the bullseye that we are currently seeing on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM total precip...A little drier for NYC then 18z but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Their is still room for the heaviest banding to shift even further west if you get development just a tad sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For NYC, I think the trends are great. It's been nothing but a slow inch westward each time with heaviest precip and I wouldnt be surprised if by tomorrow NYC gets the bullseye that we are currently seeing on LI LI will most likely have the best dynamics and nam seems locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Their is still room for the heaviest banding to shift even further west if you get development just a tad sooner I don't think so--that is about as close as you can cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For NYC, I think the trends are great. It's been nothing but a slow inch westward each time with heaviest precip and I wouldnt be surprised if by tomorrow NYC gets the bullseye that we are currently seeing on LI NAM on this run strenghtened the low, but also sucked in the QPF field on the west side (like a hurricane) instead of a more traditional low. It upped the ante in the 'core' near the low, at the expense of the western fringe. NYC/NE NJ are near a push 0z/18z, C/W NJ & PA have lower QPF and LI increased theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM says E LI gets 1.25" in 6 hrs... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p06_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think so--that is about as close as you can cut it. 100% agree to that one,LI is in for a hammering! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For those who don't have close up... Here's more specific..Eastern orange, rockland, all points in NJ from I 287 east has .75 - 1 inchAll of NYC is 1 - 1.25Nassau and eastern Suffolk has 1.25 - 1.50Central - eastern Suffolk had 1.5 - 1.75!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam snowfall map is 8-12 city west....and 12-18for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Their is still room for the heaviest banding to shift even further west if you get development just a tad sooner and conversely further east if development is a tad slower. Don't worry I'm on your side for a further west pull. Trend has been steady to slightly west today. Solid snow fall for just about everyone in NJ and even eastern PA w/ some area looking at 12+ and that area maybe near the jackpot area of 12/27 or perhaps a touch north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think so--that is about as close as you can cut it. Took the words right out of my mouth. That's the farthest west you're going to see the jackpot on the NAM. Rapid deepening takes it from 1004 to 986 in a little over 6 hours...not sure how much quicker it can get than that. Time to start pinning down that deformation band...I'll be interested in the hi-res non-hydrostatic models over the next 24 hours or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eastern Suffolk actually eclipses 1.75 by hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does anyone have a link for the nam bufkit and also the gfs bufkit thank you in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There was more after hour 42. Here is the end of it. 2.02" precip maximum over eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 this is from the 12z run of the NAM but about the same as the 0z NAM with the position of the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The jackpot zones are definitely going to be further east and northeast than before, based on the QPF output from the NAM, some parts of LI and especially SNE could see 20-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/node/28120846/edit/extras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM total precip...A little drier for NYC then 18z but not by much. The 1.00 1.25 line bi-secs Monmouth Co and touches Isotherms front lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boston getting into the good stuff at 42hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Took the words right out of my mouth. That's the farthest west you're going to see the jackpot on the NAM. Rapid deepening takes it from 1004 to 986 in a little over 6 hours...not sure how much quicker it can get than that. Time to start pinning down that deformation band...I'll be interested in the hi-res non-hydrostatic models over the next 24 hours or so.. The deepening is amazing. And I agree, just think...a couple hours either way and the result won't be nearly as good. We are cutting it close for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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