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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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after just seeing the 0z NAM at 36hrs I had to jump into this thread for a bit to make sure you guys are keeping it in your pants lol.

can't believe some of you lucky SOB's are going to get rick rolled again.

looking on the NCEP maps, sfc low goes from 1012mb to 992mb in 12hrs....umm can you say bombogenesis x2 anyone??

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For NYC, I think the trends are great. It's been nothing but a slow inch westward each time with heaviest precip and I wouldnt be surprised if by tomorrow NYC gets the bullseye that we are currently seeing on LI

LI will most likely have the best dynamics and nam seems locked in.

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For NYC, I think the trends are great. It's been nothing but a slow inch westward each time with heaviest precip and I wouldnt be surprised if by tomorrow NYC gets the bullseye that we are currently seeing on LI

NAM on this run strenghtened the low, but also sucked in the QPF field on the west side (like a hurricane) instead of a more traditional low. It upped the ante in the 'core' near the low, at the expense of the western fringe. NYC/NE NJ are near a push 0z/18z, C/W NJ & PA have lower QPF and LI increased theirs.

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Their is still room for the heaviest banding to shift even further west if you get development just a tad sooner

and conversely further east if development is a tad slower. Don't worry I'm on your side for a further west pull. ;) Trend has been steady to slightly west today. Solid snow fall for just about everyone in NJ and even eastern PA w/ some area looking at 12+ and that area maybe near the jackpot area of 12/27 or perhaps a touch north and east.

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I don't think so--that is about as close as you can cut it.

Took the words right out of my mouth. That's the farthest west you're going to see the jackpot on the NAM. Rapid deepening takes it from 1004 to 986 in a little over 6 hours...not sure how much quicker it can get than that.

Time to start pinning down that deformation band...I'll be interested in the hi-res non-hydrostatic models over the next 24 hours or so..

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Took the words right out of my mouth. That's the farthest west you're going to see the jackpot on the NAM. Rapid deepening takes it from 1004 to 986 in a little over 6 hours...not sure how much quicker it can get than that.

Time to start pinning down that deformation band...I'll be interested in the hi-res non-hydrostatic models over the next 24 hours or so..

The deepening is amazing. And I agree, just think...a couple hours either way and the result won't be nearly as good. We are cutting it close for sure.

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