friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a big bet toms river gets more than boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a big bet toms river gets more than boston. i hope you got good odds, dont think any model gives toms river more snow than boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i hope you got good odds, dont think any model gives toms river more snow than boston The odds aren't as bad as you think if the 21z SREFs are any clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 is there some sort of o tropical system down off the east coast of Mexico? one inch line now back to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 is there some sort of o tropical system down off the east coast of Mexico? I believe there is a tropical disturbance south of mexico and the stj is running through the gulf right now. I also think there has been an MJO spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Miller A/B classification generally fits most systems, but there are a quite of number of systems that don't fit under either. I think this storm would be a great storm to classify under "hybrid" since it shares characteristics of both since the primary upper level S/W fits the B classification while the coastal low originated in the Gulf Of Mexico in association with a secondary wave. Unlike with most Miller As, this gulf coast storm is largely sheared apart as it moves to the se coast, losing most of its former punch as it does so.. It barely maintains character, with a pressure reading around 1018; hardly the stemwinder we usually see as more typical A type storm roars out of the gulf, turn the corner, and deliver the goods up the coast.. This one needs the help of the secondary energy from the midwest to reinvigorate it, providing moisture to the developing situation, but not much else.. To me, this is the main reason its not seen as more of an A type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 21Z SREFS, Very pumped as I believe their #1 in verifications scores in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very as I believe their #1 in verifications scores in the short range. Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unlike with most Miller As, this gulf coast storm is largely sheared apart as it moves to the se coast, losing most of its former punch as it does so.. It barely maintains character, with a pressure reading around 1018; hardly the stemwinder we usually see as more typical A type storm roars out of the gulf, turn the corner, and deliver the goods up the coast.. This one needs the help of the secondary energy from the midwest to reinvigorate it, providing moisture to the developing situation, but not much else.. To me, this is the main reason its not seen as more of an A type storm. Right, I do believe it has far more characteristics with a Miller A type system, but quite honestly, if that coastal low was not there to begin with, this would be a weak OTS solution, or at best, a glancing blow to coastal NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Awesome signal by the srefs! Excellent. NAM also looks like its coming in nicely so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This 0Z NAM looks like it will hold serve and possibly be a bigger hit through 24 based on its height field representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Awesome signal by the srefs! Excellent. NAM also looks like its coming in nicely so far. Not sure if I fully agree. The upper level low looks a bit more east with slightly less digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 light snow up to nyc at hr 30...mod snow down by phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This 0Z NAM looks like it will hold serve and possibly be a bigger hit through 24 based on its height field representation. Hmm maybe I am misreading something then. Can you please explain what is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not sure if I fully agree. The upper level low looks a bit more east with slightly less digging The upper level EC ridge is a tad flatter, but it is faster than the 18Z...which is good since the 18Z almost captured it too late. We will see how this run pans out, it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The upper level EC ridge is a tad flatter, but it is faster than the 18Z...which is good since the 18Z almost captured it too late. We will see how this run pans out, it will be close. Ah my bad, for some reason I was under the impression a faster upper level low would not be a good thing. But that makes sense being the faster the capture, the stronger the storm. Still learning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We're gonna need a mother of god image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 30 very impressive 526dm 5h low... heights due n. looks big! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the at hr 33 it shift the heavy part of the ccb east....still a great storm....but li going to get crushed .5 up to nyc and .5+ for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Which model? SREFSScores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 36 hour frame is absolutely nuts..huge CCB is developing. Long Island is absolutely obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heaviest qpf over long island but still a very good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We're gonna need a mother of god image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 986mb hr 36 off E LI say 50 - 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hah, usually the image is posted with the model output. But thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its going to be windier as well if the 0z NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 36 hour frame is absolutely nuts..huge CCB is developing. Long Island is absolutely obliterated. Even SW Nass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the nam lines up with the srefs run well...inch kissing the city.... and .75+ eastern nj...LI crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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