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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree.

ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east.

How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution?

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A 6 hour trowel/frontogenic arc with embedded CSI (though haven't looked at momentum vs. temp plots to know for sure, but I'd gather that there is some support for symmetric instability)

In areas that get the best bands, this is 10-15"/6 hr. type deal ... I can see some elevated spots NE Ct. or ORH approaching 20" with this setup but the potential is definitely there for the usual winners in the lower Hudson Valley/W Ct./W. Ma.

Yeah, that's a classic spot nw of the low. Everything gets temporarily maximized there before heading east.

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ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east.

How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution?

Not that the EC is not one of the best if not the best but we all saw how much of a train wreck it was with the boxing day event. It also performed poorly during Hurricane season when it kept spitting out those record cat 5 pressures which never came close to verifying. Fiona was another big loss for the EC.

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Judging from my somewhat limited knowleadge of such systems from the other side of the Atlantic, I'd say the 8-12 inche is a good guide but there are places that will probably be in the 12-15 inches range and the exact bullseye maybe a little higher then that....generally though the 8-12 inch range has been a pretty decent guide for similar systems that have hit the UK but obviously the ratio's will be a little higher over your side of the ocean more often then not so maybe a smidge higher then that guide in the bullseye zone....

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ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east.

How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution?

Not very often, but the important thing here is both the ECM/GFS have not been "right". While they remain east outliers, they have made consistent changes in both their upper level height field representation and surface track the last 5-6 days. They started amazingly flat and weak and have since become much more amplified run-by-run. It does seem that the height field changes come first followed by incremental changes in the surface track every few runs.

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ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east.

How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution?

With the recent trends for the more amplified system looks to be happening would the sweet spot for this storm still be the coastal areas or moving it inland to nyc and ne nj?

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I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast....

That's not really our storm. The feature we're watching is over the Plains right now. It's a miller B because you have a weakening primary low over the OV and a strengthening coastal low.

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I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra.org/2009/12/miller-a-and-miller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast....

Really, I should have named it a double barreled low or a one-two punch. But most people only think in terms of Miller A and B, and this is more B, imo, with the northern stream energy transferring from the OH Valley to the East Coast, despite a surface feature already being present.

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I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast....

That storm has been mostly sheared out as it went east towards the Atlantic and another piece of energy currently in the Rockies is going to merge with the energy associated with the southern states storm and come up the coast: all of that is basically a Miller B style storm.

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Interesting develompment....

I had another look at the Euro ens spag plots and it appears the OP euro low placement is about 50-100 miles east of the main ensemble cluster. This suggests the Euro will correct westward at 0z tonight to a more NAM/GEFS solution.

I will remind everyone that the Euro was OTS in the Day 5ish range but the Euro ens were west of the OP and the OP eventually followed....so there is some reason to believe the ensembles lead the OP

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I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast....

Miller A/B classification generally fits most systems, but there are a quite of number of systems that don't fit under either. I think this storm would be a great storm to classify under "hybrid" since it shares characteristics of both since the primary upper level S/W fits the B classification while the coastal low originated in the Gulf Of Mexico in association with a secondary wave.

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Seems like H5 looks improved on each Model Run today, but the surface presentations are different in regards to track and QPF still, but more amplification looks to be a consensus right now, just where the CCB develops in accordance to track is the question. On the other hand, the 18z GFS ensembles are all west of the OP, 00z should manage to move west, maybe not towards the NAM but so-so.

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Guest stormchaser

all of the NAMs show 1.2-1.5+ of QPF for the Jersey Shore specifically Monmouth County, im not asking a IMBY question but wouldn't that call for more than a 6-12" forecast?

The Nam isnt the only model that forecasters use ya know......

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Looking at the 12z soundings on the eWall (http://www.meteo.psu...pskwframe2.html), there are some moist neutral profiles on LI and in SNE around 3z/6z tomorrow night... so maybe?

I see, the way I learned was looking at theta E profiles, but I do not remember exactly off the top of my head and dont have time to pull out my mesoscale notebook right now. Need to get up for work at 2am :axe:

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