yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree. ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east. How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A 6 hour trowel/frontogenic arc with embedded CSI (though haven't looked at momentum vs. temp plots to know for sure, but I'd gather that there is some support for symmetric instability) In areas that get the best bands, this is 10-15"/6 hr. type deal ... I can see some elevated spots NE Ct. or ORH approaching 20" with this setup but the potential is definitely there for the usual winners in the lower Hudson Valley/W Ct./W. Ma. Yeah, that's a classic spot nw of the low. Everything gets temporarily maximized there before heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east. How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution? Not that the EC is not one of the best if not the best but we all saw how much of a train wreck it was with the boxing day event. It also performed poorly during Hurricane season when it kept spitting out those record cat 5 pressures which never came close to verifying. Fiona was another big loss for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heh... I worked today on 3-4 hours sleep. me too .. was up till 3:30am for 06z gfs then up at 6:30am for work. Things look good though! Hopefully get some rest tonight for a long night tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Heh... I worked today on 3-4 hours sleep. Me too! And when I got to work, my room was 45 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Judging from my somewhat limited knowleadge of such systems from the other side of the Atlantic, I'd say the 8-12 inche is a good guide but there are places that will probably be in the 12-15 inches range and the exact bullseye maybe a little higher then that....generally though the 8-12 inch range has been a pretty decent guide for similar systems that have hit the UK but obviously the ratio's will be a little higher over your side of the ocean more often then not so maybe a smidge higher then that guide in the bullseye zone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east. How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution? You can hang your hat on the Boxing Day Blizzard for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east. How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution? Not very often, but the important thing here is both the ECM/GFS have not been "right". While they remain east outliers, they have made consistent changes in both their upper level height field representation and surface track the last 5-6 days. They started amazingly flat and weak and have since become much more amplified run-by-run. It does seem that the height field changes come first followed by incremental changes in the surface track every few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra.org/2009/12/miller-a-and-miller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ECM had a run or two that was further west, but for the most part has been east. How often is it wrong though when it consistenly maintains a solution? With the recent trends for the more amplified system looks to be happening would the sweet spot for this storm still be the coastal areas or moving it inland to nyc and ne nj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast.... That's not really our storm. The feature we're watching is over the Plains right now. It's a miller B because you have a weakening primary low over the OV and a strengthening coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra.org/2009/12/miller-a-and-miller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast.... Really, I should have named it a double barreled low or a one-two punch. But most people only think in terms of Miller A and B, and this is more B, imo, with the northern stream energy transferring from the OH Valley to the East Coast, despite a surface feature already being present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast.... That storm has been mostly sheared out as it went east towards the Atlantic and another piece of energy currently in the Rockies is going to merge with the energy associated with the southern states storm and come up the coast: all of that is basically a Miller B style storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting develompment.... I had another look at the Euro ens spag plots and it appears the OP euro low placement is about 50-100 miles east of the main ensemble cluster. This suggests the Euro will correct westward at 0z tonight to a more NAM/GEFS solution. I will remind everyone that the Euro was OTS in the Day 5ish range but the Euro ens were west of the OP and the OP eventually followed....so there is some reason to believe the ensembles lead the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see this storm is listed as a Miller B; yet the storm seems to have crossed Texas and the gulf similar to a Miller A described in this link. http://tattlerextra....iller-b-storms/ . Just wondering why the designation as a weather enthusiast.... Miller A/B classification generally fits most systems, but there are a quite of number of systems that don't fit under either. I think this storm would be a great storm to classify under "hybrid" since it shares characteristics of both since the primary upper level S/W fits the B classification while the coastal low originated in the Gulf Of Mexico in association with a secondary wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems like H5 looks improved on each Model Run today, but the surface presentations are different in regards to track and QPF still, but more amplification looks to be a consensus right now, just where the CCB develops in accordance to track is the question. On the other hand, the 18z GFS ensembles are all west of the OP, 00z should manage to move west, maybe not towards the NAM but so-so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 latest three hour pressure falls from unisys. Very cool to see the two lows (midwest and coastal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see a lot of moisture feeding into this storm, more than I think the current QPF's would lead one to believe. Would this raise QPF's on the next runs? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any signs pointing to thundersnow with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It may not mean anything as there is nothing to suggest yet that the models haven't picked up on that. I see a lot of moisture feeding into this storm, more than I think the current QPF's would lead one to believe. Would this raise QPF's on the next runs? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any signs pointing to thundersnow with this system? Craig Allen on CBS88am in NY was mentioning on radio around 5pm that there is a verry good chance. Esp.where the heavy bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 all of the NAMs show 1.2-1.5+ of QPF for the Jersey Shore specifically Monmouth County, im not asking a IMBY question but wouldn't that call for more than a 6-12" forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 all of the NAMs show 1.2-1.5+ of QPF for the Jersey Shore specifically Monmouth County, im not asking a IMBY question but wouldn't that call for more than a 6-12" forecast? The Nam isnt the only model that forecasters use ya know...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF came in wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 one inch line now back to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Craig Allen on CBS88am in NY was mentioning on radio around 5pm that there is a verry good chance. Esp.where the heavy bands set up. Cool. I would figure as much, but I hadnt had time to look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 all of the NAMs show 1.2-1.5+ of QPF for the Jersey Shore specifically Monmouth County, im not asking a IMBY question but wouldn't that call for more than a 6-12" forecast? If you have to qualify it with that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any signs pointing to thundersnow with this system? Looking at the 12z soundings on the eWall (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/compskwframe2.html), there are some moist neutral profiles on LI and in SNE around 3z/6z tomorrow night... so maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z nam is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the 12z soundings on the eWall (http://www.meteo.psu...pskwframe2.html), there are some moist neutral profiles on LI and in SNE around 3z/6z tomorrow night... so maybe? I see, the way I learned was looking at theta E profiles, but I do not remember exactly off the top of my head and dont have time to pull out my mesoscale notebook right now. Need to get up for work at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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