ace0927 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 uuum yeah these look better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow just made a map and read this.. exactly what I have 7-12" which includes NYC then a stripe of 10-16" in parts of LI into central and some of eastern CT into SE Mass not along immediate coast ABC Ch 7 has pretty much the same as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ok, which weenie hacked into the GEFS LOL As I said on a previous page, the op gfs smacks of convective feedback given what the H5 looks like, and the ensembles are clearly showing how the OP is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks like around 1 QPF for the NYC area on the ensemble mean. That's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00Z GEFS means are way west of the OP..basically look like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00Z GEFS means are way west of the OP..basically look like the NAM. Geez, you must really have an all-access pass to NCEP data if youre analyzing the 00z GEFS 6 hours before its out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Geez, you must really have an all-access pass to NCEP data if youre analyzing the 00z GEFS 6 hours before its out Oh man..running on no sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 earthlight, I read your disco from your blog, hope you don't mind if I post it here, I always find it to be really informative and easy to understand QUOTE: Major forecast uncertainties in the short term period still exist despite some reduced variance in model forecasts at this time frame. Ridge axis will slide east of the area Tuesday while a large upper level trough digs southeast from the Rockies towards the Plains and eventually the Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. Several modeling interactions that are causing some different model solutions. First, the strength of the Rockies shortwave and it's progression eastward. The NAM from 12/z/9 and 00z/10 was the first to really catch on to the strength of this shortwave trough and associated dynamics and there has been a very slow trend towards it's solution amongst the global models. The SREFs, although jumping around a bit, have also trended towards the NAM upper air pattern in that regard..although a bit more subdued on the ensemble mean. The second feature is the surface low which is ejecting northeast from the Gulf Coast towards the Southeast States. The models are struggling with it's exact placement at this time, but as of the 18z regional OBS and analysis, the ECMWF was the best with it's placement, positioning and strength, with the NAM not that far off. The GFS was too far east with this feature. Also, the 12z model initialization and 06 hour forecast compared to actual observed 18z data shows most models a little to high with heights in the Southeast US..with the ECMWF the best forecast and again the NAM a close second. The main model differences result from the exact physics and dynamics in relation to precipitation intensity and duration across the area as the storm moves north up the coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Ignoring that fact...most models have trended towards some semblance of agreement in regards to the H5 trough. With that in mind, we decided that this package will follow a general blend of the 18z NAM, 15z SREF mean, and ECMWF ensemble mean. The GFS..to be quite frank..seems to be an eastward outlier with this system. We included some of it in our package to account for the possibility that the storm may hedge eastward at the last moment, but including the NAM and it's northwest hook also allows for some median in the forecast..which ends up resembling the 15z SREFs. END QUOTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the 72 hour gfs ensembles total: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72072.gif Huge westward shift especially compared to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the 72 hour gfs ensembles total: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif Huge westward shift especially compared to the OP. scary thing is it is matches up almost perfectly to the srefs and its getting close to looking like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 scary thing is it is matches up almost perfectly to the srefs and its getting close to looking like the NAM Yup. It looks like 1 inch+ goes back to like Newark. I couldn't find the link to the zoomed in northeast version or else I would have posted that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The same ones that everyone else is using. A blend between the GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF. I'd go light on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is why the ensemble mean is so juiced up now. Mutiple members taking a NAM like track and showing some impressive QPF on the NW and Westerly side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd go light on the GFS. ya so close to the storm with its ensembles further NW and wetter I'd definitely take it with a grain of salt. I also highly suspect the 0z GFS will look more like the 18z GEFS, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is why the ensemble mean is so juiced up now. Mutiple members taking a NAM like track and showing some impressive QPF on the NW and Westerly side the OP is really on the eastern fringe here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ya so close to the storm with its ensembles further NW and wetter I'd definitely take it with a grain of salt. I also highly suspect the 0z GFS will look more like the 18z GEFS, but who knows. No, I think you have it right. Its either convective feedback or poor initialization throwing the surface low placement in the beginning because its H5 signature aligns nicely with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Almost all of these have an inch of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh man..running on no sleep. I'm with you on that. Just wanted to say that I've been on weather boards since their inception (you were probably just getting out of diapers then) but your insight and analysis, considering how youthful you are, is exceptional. You are, without a doubt, going to be one hell of a synoptic forecaster when you learn some things. Lol. Thanks for great moderation and keeping it real. Now back to my rocking chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Latest snowfall map from OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have thought the gfs and euro have been pretty consistant...the nam since 18z last night has had a diff solution each run.....the 12z/18z runs today are similiar but did trend a bit less with qpf west of the hudson...lets not use the model that has the most for mby and look at the big picture....you cant compare this to the boxing day storm...diff set-ups......i feel 6-12 is a great call right now.....the gfs and the euro has been pretty consistant since 72 hrs out..... good post, there seems to be wishcasting based on what models to toss. Euro and GFS have been most consistent and we know full well just because a model got the last storm right does not mean it will score victory the next time. We are going to get 4-8 in western parts of NJ down to Philly and probably 6-12 elsewhere to NYC, that is a solid snowstorm yet people want even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 all of those ens members of the gfs are NW and W of the op..and more robust with the precip. Almost a guarantee the 18z op was alittle off and 00z will correct back west, as supported by its own ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Oh man..running on no sleep. Gotta love your passion ... the last few have been special winters and it's been a delight to see you come of age as a forecaster (and communicator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 all of those ens members of the gfs are NW and W of the op..and more robust with the precip. Almost a guarantee the 18z op was alittle off and 00z will correct back west, as supported by its own ensembles.. The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the vort track is nearly perfect for the nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I def would be excited if I lived near NYC and ne NJ. This has the look of some very heavy snow for a time, as the low gets going and before the mid level lows jump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 18Z GFS operational just looks bad, and it is no surprise its own ensemble suite is well W. The GFS/ECM ops have been the flattest and weakest from the start 5-6 days ago with this storm as it tracked through the OV. They are holding strong with a weaker solution farther E, but they will likely be wrong in the end--at least to some degree. the vort track is nearly perfect for the nyc metro I def would be excited if I lived near NYC and ne NJ. This has the look of some very heavy snow for a time, as the low gets going and before the mid level lows jump east. These three posts make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 These three posts make me happy. lol I second that. I can't believe were going to see another significant/major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh man..running on no sleep. Heh... I worked today on 3-4 hours sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm very excited here in Morris County. This system has very similar looks in terms of QPF to the Boxing day event and reminds me of how the QPF jumped significanly the last few runs prior to the event. Let's just remember that even if the general consensus is for 0.75"-1.25" for the NYC area wherever the best banding sets up will likely recieve more. For the Boxing Day event I was forecasted to recieve between 1.25 and 1.5" however a trained spotter in my town measured 2.503" thanks to that historic banding that setup over Passaic and Morris Counties. I watched as my forecast totals went from 16" two days out to over 27.0" as the storm was already ongoing. All in all the trained spotter measured 23.0". Not historic totals but very nice...especially considering before that heavy band setup we only had about 4-5" on the ground. Looks like the impact from the wind will be alot less with this system and the duration will be less however I wouldn't be suprised too see locations in NJ over 18.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I def would be excited if I lived near NYC and ne NJ. This has the look of some very heavy snow for a time, as the low gets going and before the mid level lows jump east. A 6 hour trowel/frontogenic arc with embedded CSI (though haven't looked at momentum vs. temp plots to know for sure, but I'd gather that there is some support for symmetric instability) In areas that get the best bands, this is 10-15"/6 hr. type deal ... I can see some elevated spots NE Ct. or ORH approaching 20" with this setup but the potential is definitely there for the usual winners in the lower Hudson Valley/W Ct./W. Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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