Snowlover11 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thru 30 looks a bit drier EDIT:nvm sarcus beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS has .25 - .50 20 miles north and west of NYC and west of that point.. immediate suburbs, NYC, points east have .50 - .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 drier than 12z thru 42 and most of the precip is ending. We may eek out .50 in NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS looking dry as a bone for a storm that clearly looks stronger aloft. Something might be off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Barely .50" this run for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS has .25 - .50 20 miles north and west of NYC and west of that point.. immediate suburbs, NYC, points east have .50 - .75 Much weaker than the NAM and a touch east as well. Drier than 12z. So much for consensus in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If we only end up with .50 precip this is going to be one big bust for the NAM and SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the GFS appears to have the SLP at 27 hours about 75-100 miles east of the Euro and NAM then tries to play catch up to get it to go over the bench mark. If the GFS had the SLP where the other Euro and NAM have it it would be paiting a different picture IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs is .50+ for the city east and .25+ for all of jersey....ewr close to .50 line if not in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If we only end up with .50 precip this is going to be one big bust for the NAM and SREFs Just relax...were inside 48hrs. The NAM is King inside of 48hrs. If I remember correctly, the GFS pulled the same stunt for the 12/26 event and corrected it the day before. Look for the models to make corrections at 00z based on the better looks at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol at this post I think you meant to post this in the banter thread? At least I hope you did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol at this post Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone likes to hate on the RUC--but I have been watching it since last night and it has verified very well with it's long range H5 forecasts regarding this storm. It continues to be extremely amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM 36 To my eyes the RGEM doesn't rapidly deepen the SLP in time for a major hit outside of ELI and SNE. It's very dry in SENY and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 To my eyes the RGEM doesn't rapidly deepen the SLP in time for a major hit outside of ELI and SNE. It's very dry in SENY and NNJ. Its way west of its previous runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes but the GFS was the model that brought it back on the 24th and was pretty close to the final solution until the very end when it shaved off QPF, but by that point it was moot since the event was already underway. Not saying it will be right but its QPF has been remarkably consistent the past 10 runs or so, basically .4 to .6 for EWR. Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event. I have thought the gfs and euro have been pretty consistant...the nam since 18z last night has had a diff solution each run.....the 12z/18z runs today are similiar but did trend a bit less with qpf west of the hudson...lets not use the model that has the most for mby and look at the big picture....you cant compare this to the boxing day storm...diff set-ups......i feel 6-12 is a great call right now.....the gfs and the euro has been pretty consistant since 72 hrs out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 From Tombo on the Mt. Holly thread with regards to the 18z GFS. This is why I said that the models will likely shift west at 00z. tombo82685 Posted 3 minutes ago <LI class=avatar> <LI class="mini_friend_toggle is_friend" id=friend_264537_541> Posts: 4,131 Joined: November 12, 2010 LocationDrexel Hill, pa if the same depiction at h5 on the 18z gfs is on 0z, you will see the low further west at 0z. Winter of 10-11 15.3" FACEBOOK ME MY WEATHER STATION Mt. Holly Skywarn Spotter Back to top Report MultiQuote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the 18z GFS on ewall, it has some heavier precip at 24 and 27 hours off the coast and then jumps the surface low at that time frame to the convection. This is a classic convective feedback mechanism on the GFS. After these frames it does a major correction in response to the better H5 signature and still manages to get the surface low close to the 40/70 bench mark. If the feedback wasn't there, we would have a difference result Here are the frames in quesion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 According to tri state weather board met gfs is wrong as upper levels H5 ect. don't match up with surface numbers..expect this to correct tonight and tomorrow mornings run to come closer to nam..in fact I also read the low could come in stronger and wetter farther west than being depicted currently by most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is that blossom of the Caroliina's our guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its way west of its previous runs though. Yeah a bit west. I overlayed them to be sure. The SLP position at 18z is maybe 50 miles WNW of 6z. It's more difficult to directly compare with 12z but the differences are similar I think. 18z is also 1mb deeper at 36hr. Overall the trof structure and westward extent of QPF are slightly improved but not dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is that blossom of the Caroliina's our guy? No. It's the shortwave of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If we only end up with .50 precip this is going to be one big bust for the NAM and SREFs Just relax...were inside 48hrs. The NAM is King inside of 48hrs. If I remember correctly, the GFS pulled the same stunt for the 12/26 event and corrected it the day before. Look for the models to make corrections at 00z based on the better looks at H5. Who let Sybil in to post? Just kidding - kind of funny to see some arguing between posters with almost identical names.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This reminds me of a beefed up version of many of the storms we had in 02-03 - it also feels like a slightly colder Feb. 5, 2001, which gave Ct. a doozy of a snowstorm. But same 6 hour frontogenic wallop with deformation snows lingering (seeing signs that this may linger a bit longer N & E of NYC) on the back end. 02/05/01 produced 18" at DXR and 15" at HVN. I'm thinking 8-12 for the city and NE with a stripe of 10-15" C LI up through most of Ct., save far NW (though even there I think cashes in) and immediate coastal locales in the SE... will try to get a map out prior to 00Z suite. Wow just made a map and read this.. exactly what I have 7-12" which includes NYC then a stripe of 10-16" in parts of LI into central and some of eastern CT into SE Mass not along immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No. It's the shortwave of the Rockies. After posting that question about the blossom off of the Carolinas, I realized that if that were the storm .... it would be moving a bit slow!?!?!? Very interesting H2O vapor. I love the little ribbon coming off of the Pacific - that jet is screaming right into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 After posting that question about the blossom off of the Carolinas, I realized that if that were the storm .... it would be moving a bit slow!?!?!? Very interesting H2O vapor. I love the little ribbon coming off of the Pacific - that jet is screaming right into this thing. Yep. Focus in on the Rockies and the coupled jet. That's the area of interest. It will start to intensify over the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow, 18z gfs ens are way tucked into the coast ala nam... gfs ens mean .5-.75 from elkton md to scranton pa....75-1 starts at trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.