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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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If we only end up with .50 precip this is going to be one big bust for the NAM and SREFs

Just relax...were inside 48hrs. The NAM is King inside of 48hrs. If I remember correctly, the GFS pulled the same stunt for the 12/26 event and corrected it the day before. Look for the models to make corrections at 00z based on the better looks at H5.

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lol at this post

Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event.

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Yes but the GFS was the model that brought it back on the 24th and was pretty close to the final solution until the very end when it shaved off QPF, but by that point it was moot since the event was already underway. Not saying it will be right but its QPF has been remarkably consistent the past 10 runs or so, basically .4 to .6 for EWR.

Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event.

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Last season, the NAM was deadly inside of 48hrs. With the boxing day event, the NAM was showing a QPF max in Monmouth County where most of the other guidance it had offshore. The NAM also did better with the QPF in Northern NJ. The GFS has been all over the place with this event.

I have thought the gfs and euro have been pretty consistant...the nam since 18z last night has had a diff solution each run.....the 12z/18z runs today are similiar but did trend a bit less with qpf west of the hudson...lets not use the model that has the most for mby and look at the big picture....you cant compare this to the boxing day storm...diff set-ups......i feel 6-12 is a great call right now.....the gfs and the euro has been pretty consistant since 72 hrs out.....

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From Tombo on the Mt. Holly thread with regards to the 18z GFS. This is why I said that the models will likely shift west at 00z.

tombo82685 user_popup.png Posted 3 minutes ago

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if the same depiction at h5 on the 18z gfs is on 0z, you will see the low further west at 0z.

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Looking at the 18z GFS on ewall, it has some heavier precip at 24 and 27 hours off the coast and then jumps the surface low at that time frame to the convection. This is a classic convective feedback mechanism on the GFS. After these frames it does a major correction in response to the better H5 signature and still manages to get the surface low close to the 40/70 bench mark. If the feedback wasn't there, we would have a difference result Here are the frames in quesion.

f24.gif

f27.gif

f30.gif

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According to tri state weather board met gfs is wrong as upper levels H5 ect. don't match up with surface numbers..expect this to correct tonight and tomorrow mornings run to come closer to nam..in fact I also read the low could come in stronger and wetter farther west than being depicted currently by most models.

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Its way west of its previous runs though.

Yeah a bit west.

I overlayed them to be sure. The SLP position at 18z is maybe 50 miles WNW of 6z. It's more difficult to directly compare with 12z but the differences are similar I think. 18z is also 1mb deeper at 36hr. Overall the trof structure and westward extent of QPF are slightly improved but not dramatically.

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If we only end up with .50 precip this is going to be one big bust for the NAM and SREFs

Just relax...were inside 48hrs. The NAM is King inside of 48hrs. If I remember correctly, the GFS pulled the same stunt for the 12/26 event and corrected it the day before. Look for the models to make corrections at 00z based on the better looks at H5.

Who let Sybil in to post? Just kidding - kind of funny to see some arguing between posters with almost identical names....

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This reminds me of a beefed up version of many of the storms we had in 02-03 - it also feels like a slightly colder Feb. 5, 2001, which gave Ct. a doozy of a snowstorm. But same 6 hour frontogenic wallop with deformation snows lingering (seeing signs that this may linger a bit longer N & E of NYC) on the back end. 02/05/01 produced 18" at DXR and 15" at HVN.

I'm thinking 8-12 for the city and NE with a stripe of 10-15" C LI up through most of Ct., save far NW (though even there I think cashes in) and immediate coastal locales in the SE... will try to get a map out prior to 00Z suite.

Wow just made a map and read this.. exactly what I have 7-12" which includes NYC then a stripe of 10-16" in parts of LI into central and some of eastern CT into SE Mass not along immediate coast

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No. It's the shortwave of the Rockies.

After posting that question about the blossom off of the Carolinas, I realized that if that were the storm .... it would be moving a bit slow!?!?!? Very interesting H2O vapor. I love the little ribbon coming off of the Pacific - that jet is screaming right into this thing.

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After posting that question about the blossom off of the Carolinas, I realized that if that were the storm .... it would be moving a bit slow!?!?!? Very interesting H2O vapor. I love the little ribbon coming off of the Pacific - that jet is screaming right into this thing.

Yep. Focus in on the Rockies and the coupled jet. That's the area of interest. It will start to intensify over the next day.

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