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NYC Jan 11-12 Miller B Thread


am19psu

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this is from Mt. Holly and is a great disco about why these things do tend to bump n & w at the end. Yes, I know, this is Upton are thread, but its great info.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS A LITTLE TOO SUBDUED WITH THE

SERN CONUS TROF AS THE HEIGHTS AT TLH ARE LOWER THAN ANY MODEL

INITIALIZED. UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS GOOD AS WAS THE HANDLING OF THE

UPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMM CAME

CLOSEST AT 500MB WITH THE GFS THE BEST AT 850MB. OVERALL THE MODEL

CONSENSUS IS GETTING CLOSER WITH DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL GOING

MORE TOWARD MODEL PHYSICS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND

INTENSIFICATION. THIS UNFORTUNATELY IS ONE OF THE WEAKER, BUT IN

THE WINTER ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS WE NEED TO

FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A EUROPEAN/WRF-NMM

COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBLE MORE

LEFT TURN OF THE COASTAL LOW BECAUSE OF THE TROF AND CONVECTION

THAT CAUSES GREATER UPWIND RIDGING THAN MODELS SOMETIME FORECAST.

WE ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS BECAUSE

OF ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TEMPS AOB 850MB IN THE SE.

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Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. East wind 7 to 14 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 34. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Upton going with 8-14 for central nassau...

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Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. East wind 7 to 14 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 34. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Upton going with 8-14 for central nassau...

Going for 9-15 for northwest suffolk...:snowman:

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this is from Mt. Holly and is a great disco about why these things do tend to bump n & w at the end. Yes, I know, this is Upton are thread, but its great info.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THE 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS A LITTLE TOO SUBDUED WITH THE

SERN CONUS TROF AS THE HEIGHTS AT TLH ARE LOWER THAN ANY MODEL

INITIALIZED. UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS GOOD AS WAS THE HANDLING OF THE

UPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMM CAME

CLOSEST AT 500MB WITH THE GFS THE BEST AT 850MB. OVERALL THE MODEL

CONSENSUS IS GETTING CLOSER WITH DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL GOING

MORE TOWARD MODEL PHYSICS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND

INTENSIFICATION. THIS UNFORTUNATELY IS ONE OF THE WEAKER, BUT IN

THE WINTER ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS WE NEED TO

FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A EUROPEAN/WRF-NMM

COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBLE MORE

LEFT TURN OF THE COASTAL LOW BECAUSE OF THE TROF AND CONVECTION

THAT CAUSES GREATER UPWIND RIDGING THAN MODELS SOMETIME FORECAST.

WE ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS BECAUSE

OF ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TEMPS AOB 850MB IN THE SE.

Sort of an odd discussion since they sound like they want to hedge closer to a western track, but then they mention they blend it with the Euro op which is farther E than most guidance. They also throw in a lot of lingo suggesting this will hook NW, which I agree with. In other words they are playing the forecasting game of admitting they are afraid it will go NW, yet though don't want to do anything too crazy yet. I don't blame them.

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12z Euro ensemble mean shifted slightly west.

rqyhhz.gif

I can't believe we are getting another one of these crazy storms again on the east coast, just two weeks after a huge one! I definitely think someone on western Long Island, maybe even Manhattan will be surprised with this one if the mesoscale models are correct. If that low pressure tracks as the NAM is depicting, someone will get raked with frontogenic banding...and it won't be Boston. QPF on the 18z NAM seems overdone for the SNE, considering they'd be dryslotted (once again) with that track.

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I can't believe we are getting another one of these crazy storms again on the east coast, just two weeks after a huge one! I definitely think someone on western Long Island, maybe even Manhattan will be surprised with this one if the mesoscale models are correct. If that low pressure tracks as the NAM is depicting, someone will get raked with frontogenic banding...and it won't be Boston. QPF on the 18z NAM seems overdone for the SNE, considering they'd be dryslotted (once again) with that track.

Similar to my thoughts, it seems that the mesoscale banding always turns out further nw than modeled. With the boxing day blizzard 48 hours out, i think, it was modeled over SW CT, and in reality it hit places nw of there. The orientation of the leading vort is different though so I would expect a broader deform band this time

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Sort of an odd discussion since they sound like they want to hedge closer to a western track, but then they mention they blend it with the Euro op which is farther E than most guidance. They also throw in a lot of lingo suggesting this will hook NW, which I agree with. In other words they are playing the forecasting game of admitting they are afraid it will go NW, yet though don't want to do anything too crazy yet. I don't blame them.

That is how I interpret that as well.

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Sounds to me like they thought about a Blizzard Warning and elected not to do so ATM...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

430 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

...COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-110530-

/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-

NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

430 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND NORTHEAST NEW

JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY

WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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RGEm to 24 (looks better) so far

http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif

This reminds me of a beefed up version of many of the storms we had in 02-03 - it also feels like a slightly colder Feb. 5, 2001, which gave Ct. a doozy of a snowstorm. But same 6 hour frontogenic wallop with deformation snows lingering (seeing signs that this may linger a bit longer N & E of NYC) on the back end. 02/05/01 produced 18" at DXR and 15" at HVN.

I'm thinking 8-12 for the city and NE with a stripe of 10-15" C LI up through most of Ct., save far NW (though even there I think cashes in) and immediate coastal locales in the SE... will try to get a map out prior to 00Z suite.

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