psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So it looks like we are in for a big storm. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So it looks like we are in for another big storm. Sweet. corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton has increased totals a tad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM ensemble mean is west of the op run. It gives 0.50-0.75 for NYC and more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is from Mt. Holly and is a great disco about why these things do tend to bump n & w at the end. Yes, I know, this is Upton are thread, but its great info. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --THE 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS A LITTLE TOO SUBDUED WITH THE SERN CONUS TROF AS THE HEIGHTS AT TLH ARE LOWER THAN ANY MODEL INITIALIZED. UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS GOOD AS WAS THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMM CAME CLOSEST AT 500MB WITH THE GFS THE BEST AT 850MB. OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GETTING CLOSER WITH DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL GOING MORE TOWARD MODEL PHYSICS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND INTENSIFICATION. THIS UNFORTUNATELY IS ONE OF THE WEAKER, BUT IN THE WINTER ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS WE NEED TO FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A EUROPEAN/WRF-NMM COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBLE MORE LEFT TURN OF THE COASTAL LOW BECAUSE OF THE TROF AND CONVECTION THAT CAUSES GREATER UPWIND RIDGING THAN MODELS SOMETIME FORECAST. WE ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS BECAUSE OF ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TEMPS AOB 850MB IN THE SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. East wind 7 to 14 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 34. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Upton going with 8-14 for central nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. East wind 7 to 14 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 34. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Upton going with 8-14 for central nassau... Going for 9-15 for northwest suffolk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton has increased totals a tad... Looks good taking a blend of the GFS/NAM/Euro. If the GFS and Euro go towards the NAM tonight then I could see most places east of the Hudson getting 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sorry for the IMBY moderators but what are you going for eastern Monmouth County right on the shore. Use this thread for IMBY requests: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this is from Mt. Holly and is a great disco about why these things do tend to bump n & w at the end. Yes, I know, this is Upton are thread, but its great info. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --THE 12Z MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS A LITTLE TOO SUBDUED WITH THE SERN CONUS TROF AS THE HEIGHTS AT TLH ARE LOWER THAN ANY MODEL INITIALIZED. UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS GOOD AS WAS THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMM CAME CLOSEST AT 500MB WITH THE GFS THE BEST AT 850MB. OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GETTING CLOSER WITH DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL GOING MORE TOWARD MODEL PHYSICS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND INTENSIFICATION. THIS UNFORTUNATELY IS ONE OF THE WEAKER, BUT IN THE WINTER ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS WE NEED TO FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD A EUROPEAN/WRF-NMM COMPROMISE. THIS WOULD TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE POSSIBLE MORE LEFT TURN OF THE COASTAL LOW BECAUSE OF THE TROF AND CONVECTION THAT CAUSES GREATER UPWIND RIDGING THAN MODELS SOMETIME FORECAST. WE ALSO TOOK INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS BECAUSE OF ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TEMPS AOB 850MB IN THE SE. Sort of an odd discussion since they sound like they want to hedge closer to a western track, but then they mention they blend it with the Euro op which is farther E than most guidance. They also throw in a lot of lingo suggesting this will hook NW, which I agree with. In other words they are playing the forecasting game of admitting they are afraid it will go NW, yet though don't want to do anything too crazy yet. I don't blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean shifted slightly west. I can't believe we are getting another one of these crazy storms again on the east coast, just two weeks after a huge one! I definitely think someone on western Long Island, maybe even Manhattan will be surprised with this one if the mesoscale models are correct. If that low pressure tracks as the NAM is depicting, someone will get raked with frontogenic banding...and it won't be Boston. QPF on the 18z NAM seems overdone for the SNE, considering they'd be dryslotted (once again) with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Richard Hoffman going with 6-16 inches...includes thunder and lightning in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Richard Hoffman going with 6-16 inches...includes thunder and lightning in the forecast. Hard to go wrong with a 10 inch spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I can't believe we are getting another one of these crazy storms again on the east coast, just two weeks after a huge one! I definitely think someone on western Long Island, maybe even Manhattan will be surprised with this one if the mesoscale models are correct. If that low pressure tracks as the NAM is depicting, someone will get raked with frontogenic banding...and it won't be Boston. QPF on the 18z NAM seems overdone for the SNE, considering they'd be dryslotted (once again) with that track. Similar to my thoughts, it seems that the mesoscale banding always turns out further nw than modeled. With the boxing day blizzard 48 hours out, i think, it was modeled over SW CT, and in reality it hit places nw of there. The orientation of the leading vort is different though so I would expect a broader deform band this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sort of an odd discussion since they sound like they want to hedge closer to a western track, but then they mention they blend it with the Euro op which is farther E than most guidance. They also throw in a lot of lingo suggesting this will hook NW, which I agree with. In other words they are playing the forecasting game of admitting they are afraid it will go NW, yet though don't want to do anything too crazy yet. I don't blame them. That is how I interpret that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Uptons forecast for my area now 10-18" (northeastern suffolk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Uptons forecast for my area now 10-18" (northeastern suffolk) What is everyone trying to one up me? I could end up with 14 and you with 10 you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEm to 24 (looks better) so far http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Much improved RGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEm to 24 (looks better) so far http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif how can anything look better? We are getting a foot of snow... I dont know about you guys, but its time to get some work done and wait for the snow to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton just updated...WSW for all of NJ, the City and LI. Still watches for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rgem finally came west and is a moderate hit for NYC and a good hit for LI. Waiting on color maps to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Winter storm warning is now in effect for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rgem finally came west and is a moderate hit for NYC and a good hit for LI. Waiting on color maps to confirm. looks about 0.50 - 0.75 from the GSP east in NJ to 1+ NYC and alot more in LI. Nice move west more at 48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sounds to me like they thought about a Blizzard Warning and elected not to do so ATM... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 430 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-110530- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.110112T0000Z-110112T2300Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 430 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. * WINDS...GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEm to 24 (looks better) so far http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif This reminds me of a beefed up version of many of the storms we had in 02-03 - it also feels like a slightly colder Feb. 5, 2001, which gave Ct. a doozy of a snowstorm. But same 6 hour frontogenic wallop with deformation snows lingering (seeing signs that this may linger a bit longer N & E of NYC) on the back end. 02/05/01 produced 18" at DXR and 15" at HVN. I'm thinking 8-12 for the city and NE with a stripe of 10-15" C LI up through most of Ct., save far NW (though even there I think cashes in) and immediate coastal locales in the SE... will try to get a map out prior to 00Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i hear the latest GFS models are rolling in!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18Z GFS looks very nice at 500 mb.. surface low still a bit east of other guidance .. right over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thru 30 its looking much drier. Will likely be half of the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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