earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still 1" liquid back to NYC at 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Goes nuts at 42 hrs...precip field is further NW With a more mature trof I would expect a slight delay to SLP deepening but more of a NW hook later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nearly 1.25 actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The QPF is less (lost the big QPF bomb) but the shield is northwest of it's 12z run. 1.25"-1.50" for Queens on east. Precip maxumum of 1.46" for twin forks thru hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice hit at 39, specially jersey shore, NYC, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still closing the H85 low off the coast of NJ..don't really care what the actual QPF says..with those H5 dynamics and the H85 low closed there that's a good signal for big snow in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL NAM goes nuts with precip over southern new england.. 1 inch in 3 hours.. hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 less QPF than 12z just looking at H5 i would have expected the opposite Exact same precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Unless you are in ELI or SEMA, the 18z NAM is without question a more favorable run for snow than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 less QPF than 12z just looking at H5 i would have expected the opposite It is because the ejecting S/W over the Gulf Stream is coming in a tad slower. If this was all shifted farther S and had more time to develop, the eventual low would be more impressive given that height field and impressive ejecting wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice hit at 39, specially jersey shore, NYC, LI. NYC metro gets bombed with .75+" of liquid from 6z to 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC metro gets bombed with .75+" of liquid from 6z to 12z Wednesday. Upper levels were a touch more amplified and the QPF shield a good 25 miles push NW. Definately a hold from the NAM. I think NYC should be good for a 8-12" storm more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC metro gets bombed with .75+" of liquid from 6z to 12z Wednesday. I'd say that's a pretty big snow...with ratios of 12:1 or potentially a bit more in the elevated suburbs, we could be talking about 8-10" of snowfall in 6 hours...that's pretty impressive! It looks as if the NAM wants to jackpot central/eastern LI, and that seems to be the consensus with the storm. Track is beautiful for everyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pretty nuts when you look at the NCEP charts. Shifted west with the QPF axis. Pretty stoked for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM deepening rates are pretty extraordinary. From 1012 to 984 in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC metro gets bombed with .75+" of liquid from 6z to 12z Wednesday. its great so it looks like were looking at another high snowfall rate storm, maybe even some TSSN!! (since I missed the blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 1.25"-1.50" bisects Queens in half right on top of LGA and is on Bronx.. Rest of NYC is 1"-1.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dynamics look to be great with this one what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM usually has the sharper cutoffs on the edges with QPF as well correct? So it's nice to see it push mod snows back further west instead of the other way around like 12/26 Upper levels were a touch more amplified and the QPF shield a good 25 miles push NW. Definately a hold from the NAM. I think NYC should be good for a 8-12" storm more on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dynamics look to be great with this one what a winter even though I'm only 20 or so miles east of SW CT I'd love to be there for this storm! I think you guys are going to do VERY well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yea, the 1 inch line runs pretty much right up and down the hudson river.. from southeastern Albany county, straight on down the hudson valley.. it includes eastern rockland and bergen counties as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres an interesting question for anyone who'd like to answer. This is exactly the timeframe when we usually see the 18z NAM with some sort of QPF bomb that is likely way overdone. Does it's consistency from run to run basically since I believe 12z yest, lend credence to its solution? Granted cutting QPF to just under 1 in the NYC area with maybe 1+ on LI might be prudent, but the possibility of more QPF is definitely there with these INSANE dynamics. So what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM sticking to its guns as the furthest west solution. Impressive development of the coastal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres an interesting question for anyone who'd like to answer. This is exactly the timeframe when we usually see the 18z NAM with some sort of QPF bomb that is likely way overdone. Does it's consistency from run to run basically since I believe 12z yest, lend credence to its solution? Granted cutting QPF to just under 1 in the NYC area with maybe 1+ on LI might be prudent, but the possibility of more QPF is definitely there with these INSANE dynamics. So what do you guys think? I don't think the QPF will go up. I still think the QPF is slightly over done IMO. I think the 1" line should be pulled closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres an interesting question for anyone who'd like to answer. This is exactly the timeframe when we usually see the 18z NAM with some sort of QPF bomb that is likely way overdone. Does it's consistency from run to run basically since I believe 12z yest, lend credence to its solution? Granted cutting QPF to just under 1 in the NYC area with maybe 1+ on LI might be prudent, but the possibility of more QPF is definitely there with these INSANE dynamics. So what do you guys think? There is always that possibility. I do find this run realistic on the QPF--probably more realistic overall than the 12Z. Some of the QPF bomb runs are likely having some positive feedback issues. Moreover, the NAM may be trying to develop some sub-grid scale processes which results in too large of a region of high qpf. It may be right in localized spots, but this is probably more realistic of region wide values. As for the NAM--I think the mesoscale models deserve a lot of credence under this scenario for multiple reasons including their better handling of the more amplified height field compared to the globals, the relative lag in the global models reacting to change in their own height field, the strength and magnitude of the ejecting S/W, the non-hydrostatic effects which will play a prominent role, and the relatively small size of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There is always that possibility. I do find this run realistic on the QPF--probably more realistic overall than the 12Z. Some of the QPF bomb runs are likely having some positive feedback issues. Moreover, the NAM may be trying to develop some sub-grid scale processes which results in too large of a region of high qpf. It may be right in localized spots, but this is probably more realistic of region wide values. As for the NAM--I think the mesoscale models deserve a lot of credence under this scenario for multiple reasons including their better handling of the more amplified height field compared to the globals, the relative lag in the global models reacting to change in their own height field, the strength and magnitude of the ejecting S/W, the non-hydrostatic effects which will play a prominent role, and the small scale nature of the system. thanks for the response. In all honestly, sensibly it doesn't matter THAT much bec I think its obvious there be be 6+ region wide. Some people will likely crack the mid teens though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRF-ARW 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thanks for the response. In all honestly, sensibly it doesn't matter THAT much bec I think its obvious there be be 6+ region wide. Some people will likely crack the mid teens though... I think the most important thing here is it will be dumping early in the morning, and a lot of folks on LI and in SNE will have a difficult morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the most important thing here is it will be dumping early in the morning, and a lot of folks on LI and in SNE will have a difficult morning commute. for sure. Will be a very disruptive storm even the in NYC metro, but they MAY dodge a bullet in terms of timing knowing that at least anecdotally most storms start earlier and end earlier than forecasted. Either way though there will likely be major disruptions in an around the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean shifted slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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