Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol 00z gfs is .25+ for all of nj and prob .50 for nyc.....what a diff between the nam and gfs right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 AM, Allsnow said: lol 00z gfs is .25+ for all of nj and prob .50 for nyc.....what a diff between the nam and gfs right now It's pretty much the gfs vs everything else right now, not just the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Whoa I just had Deja-vu, but on the other hand, the RGEM certainly has come west with 1" for the metro area, and it seems like the Mesoscale models, if they're correct, hinted at this westward trend and amplification ala the NAM earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do we consider the GFS a complete outlier at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 00z GFS has higher vertical velocities than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:32 AM, tmagan said: Try it again, I edited it. Nope still asking for name/password Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 AM, Allsnow said: <br />lol 00z gfs is .25+ for all of nj and prob .50 for nyc.....what a diff between the nam and gfs right now<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Yep. They are definitely different. GFS doesn't want to budge at all, but that's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:46 AM, Sundog said: It's pretty much the gfs vs everything else right now, not just the nam. 12z euro was a bit wetter then the gfs...but def not the nam......idk whats going to happen....but i feel the numbers that both upton and mt holly are going with are pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM, NAM, SREFS and RSM are all 1"+ for NYC and 1.25"-1.50" for LI. GFS is half of all those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:43 AM, tornadojay said: GFS looks pretty much a hold of serve Wow. GFS or NAM is going to be very wrong, but which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 00z GFS, at the surface, looks exactly the same as the 18z GFS lol. .5-.75" for the City on this run, as has been the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 00Z UKMET is also well east. But it has a bias of low pressure being too far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think the GFS is an outlier, and will be discounted by Upton. They will tick up totals for the the morning package in my humble opinion. It should be no surprise, given the AFD's from their office for the last few days, that they have continuously discounted this model for this storm for a myriad of reasons, and tonight might be the last straw, with the NAM/RGEM alliance at the final stretch run to this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:48 AM, Reale WX said: Nope still asking for name/password This will do it: Go here Click on the link labeled 'Vizaweb: web access to CMC products' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what scares me is the sharp cut off and late blooming miller B's by our area...i mean there is a bit of bust potential here......I have my eyes set on 6 right now and anything more would be great....i would feel alot better about the nam if the euro backs it up tonight...or holds serve from 12z.........the 12z euro seems the middel road between the 00z suits of the nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS a little wetter than 18Z, but still a train wreak. Looks like it would meet my point and clicks minimum of 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:50 AM, algreek3 said: RGEM, NAM, SREFS and RSM are all 1"+ for NYC and 1.25"-1.50" for LI. GFS is half of all those models. I think the king is the way to go to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am wishing you guys the best up there! Here is what it looked like IMBY this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow- if the UKMET and GFS score a coup against every single mesoscale model in optimum range, well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone in the PHL thread posted that they ingested the GFS with some additional data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think that most will use a 2/3 nam/RGEM and 1/3 euro and lend no weight to the gfs. basically gives us a really nice storm, but few places over 18...i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:55 AM, isnice said: Wow- if the UKMET and GFS score a coup against every single mesoscale model in optimum range, well, sure the 00z ukie is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS is pretty much a long range model anyway. The short range hi res models are the way to go from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:58 AM, JERSEYSNOWROB said: The GFS is pretty much a long range model anyway. The short range hi res models are the way to go from here on out. I dont think thats entirely true...you have to give the gfs and euro some weight here....nam also has a bias of being to wet....just saying we cant pick and choose what we want to believe.....i really like to take a middel road with this and go 12z euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS seems a little odd, the NAM and GGEM looks just about right. As for the bulls eye, it is still anyone guess. I will wait for the radar echos tomorrow night before I decide. NYC 8"-14" seems the best bet for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Steve d was saying before the GFS came out that he didn't think the 0z run would catch on. He said this isn't the model for this type of event and might not catch on till the storm is already going..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 4:00 AM, Mitchel Volk said: GFS seems a little odd, the NAM and GGEM looks just about right. As for the bulls eye, it is still anyone guess. I will wait for the radar echos tomorrow night before I decide. NYC 8"-14" seems the best bet for now. yes, seems right to me too...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z GFS has western Atlantic dropsonde and flight level recon data in it. What if it's right!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:51 AM, MGorse said: For what its worth, the GFS is getting a little help with more data: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. $ On 1/11/2011 at 4:03 AM, gkrangers said: 00z GFS has western Atlantic dropsonde and flight level recon data in it. What if it's right!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 4:00 AM, Allsnow said: I dont think thats entirely true...you have to give the gfs and euro some weight here....nam also has a bias of being to wet....just saying we cant pick and choose what we want to believe.....i really like to take a middel road with this and go 12z euro..... hmm not much though. Within 24-48 hrs of the storm, you have to give much more weight to the short term models here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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