am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're splitting the threads up again, guys. It looks like the NYC Metro is going to get more snow and has a better chance of getting jackpotted. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hope it's ok that I repost this in this thread to bring smiles to the faces of all early risers: We're splitting the threads up again, guys. It looks like the NYC Metro is going to get more snow and has a better chance of getting jackpotted. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6z GFS ensemble mean beefed up the QPF for the NYC area and LI. 0.75-1.00 QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 3z SREF plumes have a mean of 9" with a spread of 2-18" for LGA. http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like a 6-12" for NYC will bring us above 28" for the Season in early January. Just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like a 6-12" for NYC will bring us above 28" for the Season in early January. Just awesome. It will bring me over 30 inches for the season. Very impressive for a La Nina year. We still have the rest of January, February and March to get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 9z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 9z sref went a good amount east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 9z sref went a good amount east It went slightly east. It looks like the Euro's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 9z sref went a good amount east it seems the 9z rsm did as well. This was to be expected. Other than the NAM and SREFS yesterday, no other models were as wrapped up. The models that were outliers west are now coming into agreement with the concensus and I expect the ones that are too far east to come west a little. The NAM solutions were never believable. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREFS have the .75"-1" line from Queens on east. NYC isn't too far from the .75" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM 500H looks like 06Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z NAM 500H looks like 06Z so far Well, the 540 dm line is a tad bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nam also looks slower than the 0z and 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hour 36 just east of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hour 42 still looks identical at 500 mb.. there might be very slight differences, but more or less, the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 42 light snow up to nyc...mod back to phl..this is going to be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wouldn't that mean snow wouldn't arrive until after midnight? hr 42 light snow up to nyc...mod back to phl..this is going to be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 45 looks great.....ccb looks to prob graze nyc with the heavy stuff.....total preciep so far is .50 for phl and nyc .50+...also .75+ runs into central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 healthy dosing on eastern shores of NJ at 45.. .75 in 3 hours, according to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The area is getting hit pretty hard at hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 48 - heaviest QPF over long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is back to its big amounts it appears. .75" for NYC thru hour 45 with CCB overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 at hr 48 nyc-east is getting blitz...look out william....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC is close to 1.25" thru hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL. NAM just refuses to give in to the juiced up western track.. Looks good at 48 for NYC and points east with the heavy ccb .75/1" 6 hour precip sitting over eastern LI. Edit - Although, to be fair, it has shifted east, but it has remained determined to show more prolific precip.. I am still dubious about this given other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Precip maximum off ewall hour 51 is eastern LI with 1.78" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM remains a western outlier especially given the 9z suite of srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM outputs 12-18 inches over long island. 8-12 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam snowfall map gives 12-18 from nyc east and 8-12 to 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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