atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the NAM is lending to some uncertainty on how far west the coastal low will track. If the NAM was in a little more agreement w/ the heavy hitter models, they would feel more confident about posting advisories and knowing they would not reach warning level. ATTM these accum number seem to be right on that advisory, watch, warning line, north and west that is.... D Well lets compare the 12 Z ECM means to the 18 Z NAM NAM same time I would pretty much say we have a match..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This...the advisory/warning change will be tomorrow morning since the event will not start until after dinner to the north of Philly. Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I also didn't realize they did away with the general "snow advisory" a few years back. Learn something new every day. They also did away with the "Heavy Snow Warning" which I feel is a huge mistake, So whether its 8" or 20" its still a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well lets compare the 12 Z ECM means to the 18 Z NAM NAM same time I would pretty much say we have a match..... Would the precip being more spread out on the NAM have something to do with the coastal low not being as tightly wound up (less precip gradient) and 50 miles west? That is what it looks like on these maps. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the precip field on the 18z NAM is really classic miller B.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well lets compare the 12 Z ECM means to the 18 Z NAM I would pretty much say we have a match..... its pretty close, but the nam is still prob 50 miles further east, but the euro does match up the best with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They also did away with the "Heavy Snow Warning" which I feel is a huge mistake, So whether its 8" or 20" its still a winter storm warning The Heavy Snow Warning had nothing to do with super heavy snowfall. If the storm just had warning criteria snow with no other precipitation types or impacts such as wind (blowing/drifting), then the heavy snow warning was used. If there were mixed precipitation types or impacts, then a Winter Storm Warning was used. Frankly I liked this much more than the WSW for all storms (except Blizzard) approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They also did away with the "Heavy Snow Warning" which I feel is a huge mistake, So whether its 8" or 20" its still a winter storm warning They add the Heavy snow icon on the graphic forecast. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=phi&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=PHI&map.x=210&map.y=107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its pretty close, but the nam is still prob 50 miles further east, but the euro does match up the best with the nam And the NAM shows a less wound up coastal low which which probably spread precip further out from the circulation (lighter though). D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys, this isn't a thread to argue about who gets a warning, and who doesn't, and why there isn't a Heavy Snow Warning anymore. Take it elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM Bufkit ABE 11.5" PHL 9.4" RDG 9.8" ILG 7.5" ACY 6.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I also didn't realize they did away with the general "snow advisory" a few years back. Learn something new every day. And whatever happened to the "Traveler's Advisory", I liked that one too. Nostalgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt. Holly has updated again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its pretty close, but the nam is still prob 50 miles further east, but the euro does match up the best with the nam FWIW. In monitoring the RUC's various runs thru the afternoon, there does seem to be a NAM-like effort (trend?) to raise heights more along the coast ahead of the 500mb low, and subtly driving the energy from the northern stream a hair further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18Z GEM at 6z Wednesday solid 0.20"-0.40" across eastern PA and NJ by 6z Wednesday. 0.40"+ across S. Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW. In monitoring the RUC's various runs thru the afternoon, there does seem to be a NAM-like effort (trend?) to raise heights more along the coast ahead of the 500mb low, and subtly driving the energy from the northern stream a hair further south. Sorry if a stupid question, but that means more southerly development of the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 fwiw the rgem took a step toward the nam with the h5 closing off faster and more amplification at hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Regarding the winter storm watches remaining in parts of the area (instead of upgrading to a warning or being changed to an advisory) is because of the uncertainty the farther west one goes. The watch means there is the potential for warning criteria snow to be met, however confidence is not high at this time to upgrade to a warning. Since there is potential and still uncertainty, the watch is left in effect and not changed to a warning or an advisory. I think Tony did a pretty good job outlining the reasoning in his AFD this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM is probably about 75 miles farther NW than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Regarding the winter storm watches remaining in parts of the area (instead of upgrading to a warning or being changed to an advisory) is because of the uncertainty the farther west one goes. The watch means there is the potential for warning criteria snow to be met, however confidence is not high at this time to upgrade to a warning. Since there is potential and still uncertainty, the watch is left in effect and not changed to a warning or an advisory. I think Tony did a pretty good job outlining the reasoning in his AFD this afternoon. Thanks for chiming in. Its appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RGEM is probably about 75 miles farther NW than the 6z. Yup, big difference in the 6z Wed. maps from 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Regarding the winter storm watches remaining in parts of the area (instead of upgrading to a warning or being changed to an advisory) is because of the uncertainty the farther west one goes. The watch means there is the potential for warning criteria snow to be met, however confidence is not high at this time to upgrade to a warning. Since there is potential and still uncertainty, the watch is left in effect and not changed to a warning or an advisory. I think Tony did a pretty good job outlining the reasoning in his AFD this afternoon. He certainly did..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 48 hr - 18z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 21, the gfs is amplfying the northern stream more...the coastal is also stronger at hr 21 sub 1016 while 12z was still sub 1020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 closed h5 low now at hr 24 like all the other models are trending towards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bit more ridging in the east on 18Z GFS at hr 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still liking 6-10 for Trenton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 surface depcition through hr 27 is faster maybe a little more east so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Boreal, on 10 January 2011 - 04:27 PM, said: FWIW. In monitoring the RUC's various runs thru the afternoon, there does seem to be a NAM-like effort (trend?) to raise heights more along the coast ahead of the 500mb low, and subtly driving the energy from the northern stream a hair further south. Sorry if a stupid question, but that means more southerly development of the coastal? At the risk of offending anyone who knows what they are talking about, my understanding is that this can allow for a solution where the surface low pressure tracks closer to the coast (or where the track of the slp can move along a path that it is further north or NNE, than NE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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