tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Actually Tom, here are the begining depths. NAM shows some melting from hour 6 to hr 30 before system arrives ok yea, then thats better. I just wanted to pt that out cause some ppl in ct might think they are getting 18 plus of snow, but they didnt see that before the storm they already had 8 on the ground lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have found those above snow maps off Raleighs to be very inaccurate.... Right, which is why I couched it with a "FWIW" EDIT - see Toms post below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have found those above snow maps off Raleighs to be very inaccurate.... thats because its snow depth and not what falls i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd love to see that NAM trend with the qpf further west continue on here through 0z......I want to see my friends down in DC and BWI get in on the game a little more. I think if we topped out at .75" at ILG that would be a huge victory given the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres the 18z clown map for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wouldn't really get too excited about the 18z NAM yet for one reason...it's the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt Holly just updated...warnings are out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 342 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 DEZ001-NJZ016>019-021>023-027-PAZ070-071-111030- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.110111T2100Z-110112T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.110111T1900Z-110112T1500Z/ NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON- CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MILLVILLE... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 342 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING: THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW WILL STICK TO ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY UNTREATED ONES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL CAUSE THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO OR BELOW ONE-HALF MILE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. THE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES EACH MAY BE HAZARDOUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER THE SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED LATER ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why they left off the warning for Sussex count ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt Holly just updated...warnings are out..... Their not done yet - still updating so I believe the Warning criteria will extend a little further west. Site is very slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure why they left off the warning for Sussex count ATM. They left it out for a few counties on their display map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like they're going to hold off on upgrading N&W counties at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tony AKA Rainshadow wrote the AFD on the storm check it out. http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...O`HARA MARINE...O`HARA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt. Holly sticking with the Watch for the evening. Smart move on their part incase the storm slides a bit west. Plus it's too early for an advisory IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not that it matters since its going to snow, and we all know it will be most likely between 3-6" in most of eastern PA, but why doesn't the NWS overlap advisories/watches and warnings for certain areas.....too confusing for the public, I guess? For example: Mont. County has a Winter Storm Watch, but why not issue an Winter Weather Advisory as well since the chance of say 2-4 inches of snow is nearly 100%. I see counties to the west in the CTP region have advisories for snow occuring at the same time as eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, I said this in the Banter thread but I'll say it here what I'm a little confused about.. Read the Watch / Warning dialogues. For the watches where Lehigh, Montco, Bucks, etc. it says "Snow: 4 inches". Yet in the forecast discussion is says 3 - 7 inches. For anyone under the Warning criteria (example, Huntderdon County) the Warning dialogue says "6 - 9 inches". Yet their forecast discussion also says 3 - 7 inches. I'm a little puzzled on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not that it matters since its going to snow, and we all know it will be most likely between 3-6" in most of eastern PA, but why doesn't the NWS overlap advisories/watches and warnings for certain areas.....too confusing for the public, I guess? For example: Mont. County has a Winter Storm Watch, but why not issue an Winter Weather Advisory as well since the chance of say 2-4 inches of snow is nearly 100%. I see counties to the west in the CTP region have advisories for snow occuring at the same time as eastern PA. Correct me if i'm wrong but aren't the criteria's different for certain areas as far as watches, warning and advisories? I know up here in the mtns. 6+" is a winter storm warning whereas Delaware country would be 4+" for the same type of warning. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Correct me if i'm wrong but aren't the criteria's different for certain areas as far as watches, warning and advisories? I know up here in the mtns. 6+" is a winter storm warning whereas Delaware country would be 4+" for the same type of warning. D Well, what I'm talking about is not logic anymore, they changed it anyone west of Delaware 3 - 5" Watch = 4 in. or more. With the Warning counties they left 3 - 7" Warning = 6 - 9in. So they fiddled with it a little bit since my post. But to answer your question, I don't know if I'm right here but each office has their own set criteria as to what differentiates warnings, watches, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Correct me if i'm wrong but aren't the criteria's different for certain areas as far as watches, warning and advisories? I know up here in the mtns. 6+" is a winter storm warning whereas Delaware country would be 4+" for the same type of warning. D Yes they do, I don't exactly know where certain counties fall though. Like I said, this just makes for interesting debate and I'm sure someone from the NWS who posts on here will clear it up. The remaining "watch" in the eastern PA counties is the right call over a warning, but at the same time, (if certain criteria is met) I would think an advisory should be hoisted in the mean time while we wait on exactly trying to pin down where the heavy snows set up Tuesday evening just to give that area a heads up. To me a "watch" may lead people to think the storm may not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NJZ009-010-012>015-020-111100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.110111T2100Z-110112T1500Z/ /O.COR.KPHI.WS.W.0002.110111T2100Z-110112T1700Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-OCEAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...JACKSON 354 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW WILL STICK TO ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY UNTREATED ONES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL CAUSE THE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO OR BELOW ONE-HALF MILE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. THE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES EACH MAY BE HAZARDOUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER THE SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED LATER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes they do, I don't exactly know where certain counties fall though. Like I said, this just makes for interesting debate and I'm sure someone from the NWS who posts on here will clear it up. The remaining "watch" in the eastern PA counties is the right call over a warning, but at the same time, (if certain criteria is met) I would think an advisory should be hoisted in the mean time while we wait on exactly trying to pin down where the heavy snows set up Tuesday evening just to give that area a heads up. To me a "watch" may lead people to think the storm may not happen. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/winter.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, what I'm talking about is not logic anymore, they changed it anyone west of Delaware 3 - 5" Watch = 4 in. or more. With the Warning counties they left 3 - 7" Warning = 6 - 9in. So they fiddled with it a little bit since my post. I am still at 3-7" here in Central Bucks and just in a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes they do, I don't exactly know where certain counties fall though. Like I said, this just makes for interesting debate and I'm sure someone from the NWS who posts on here will clear it up. The remaining "watch" in the eastern PA counties is the right call over a warning, but at the same time, (if certain criteria is met) I would think an advisory should be hoisted in the mean time while we wait on exactly trying to pin down where the heavy snows set up Tuesday evening. I think the NAM is lending to some uncertainty on how far west the coastal low will track. If the NAM was in a little more agreement w/ the heavy hitter models, they would feel more confident about posting advisories and knowing they would not reach warning level. ATTM these accum number seem to be right on that advisory, watch, warning line, north and west that is.... D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, what I'm talking about is not logic anymore, they changed it anyone west of Delaware 3 - 5" Watch = 4 in. or more. With the Warning counties they left 3 - 7" Warning = 6 - 9in. So they fiddled with it a little bit since my post. But to answer your question, I don't know if I'm right here but each office has their own set criteria as to what differentiates warnings, watches, etc. They are keeping the Watch up due to the plus(+) after the 4". Quite simple. No need for an advisory yet since it's more then 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks strange when bucks and mont. are not included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12 hr warning criteria 24 hr warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They are keeping the Watch up due to the plus(+) after the 4". Quite simple. No need for an advisory yet since it's more then 24 hours out. Well then the advisory/non-advisory area was not coordinated well with the CTP office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I also didn't realize they did away with the general "snow advisory" a few years back. Learn something new every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They are keeping the Watch up due to the plus(+) after the 4". Quite simple. No need for an advisory yet since it's more then 24 hours out. This...the advisory/warning change will be tomorrow morning since the event will not start until after dinner to the north of Philly and that the potential that the snowfall may not quite reach 6". As for NJ, it's a pretty clear cut 6"+ (or 4"+ in SNJ) event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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