Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thread will implode again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hasn' the 18Z nam runs been typically drier these last few days compared to 0Z and 12Z??? yea snoowgoose said it last night like 3am, that the 6z and 18z nam runs have been really off the wall lately... you would have to ask dtk about the drier though, im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't remember for sure, but this run is definitely drier through 36. off run dryness again...6z and 18z yesterday were this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As compared to the 12z run, At hour 36 (and all prior frames) the comparative 500mb presentation looks much better, but the surface reflection looks a bit weaker and, surprisingly, not further west considering the better 500mb orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if this is "drier" , slap my face and call me silly.. .5" qpf over philly and still snowing.. @ 42hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where is the coastal low in relation to the 12z run? East, west or the same pos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run is drier for ppl east of the del river, but wetter for those west, if that makes any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where is the coastal low in relation to the 12z run? East, west or the same pos? its further west, but its also not as strong which it think it do to the slower northern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run is drier for ppl east of the del river, but wetter for those west, if that makes any sense? Broader area of low pressure, not as wrapped up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .5"+ line from lanco to scranton and points east..all of delaware and southern jersey AC south .5"-.75"... from ttn, to AC to top right half of jersey .75"+.... nyc right on the fringe 1" qpf... Who could complain about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run is drier for ppl east of the del river, but wetter for those west, if that makes any sense? Yes, on the NAM the .5-.75 line stretches back to at least Reading through hr. 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yea snoowgoose said it last night like 3am, that the 6z and 18z nam runs have been really off the wall lately... you would have to ask dtk about the drier though, im not sure. i guess what i was getting at was that if this run turned out real wet and west then that could be a good sign???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 .5 line really stretching back west this run. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM 36 hr QPF through 42 12z NAM 36 hr QPF through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i guess what i was getting at was that if this run turned out real wet and west then that could be a good sign???? well i do like a couple things that it trended stronger with the northern stream and more ridging up the coast...if the northern stream was as fast as 12z it would prob would been a much bigger hit. But the northern stream lags a little bit and it causes the storm to intensify a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitki2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tom, So can we say this so far? That the trend today has been to move the storm closer to the coast west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Total qpf through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Broader area of low pressure, not as wrapped up? Correct me if I am mistaken, but wouldn't a less tightly wound-up low mean that the precip field is more broad? Areas further from the center (ie Western areas) will get more precip for that reason.. and if the low is weaker the most intense bands around the center would be weaker too, which would mean less QPF in the easternmost regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM snow map through 54 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tom, So can we say this so far? That the trend today has been to move the storm closer to the coast west? yes, i would say so. also that h5 low is closing off sooner as the euro is showing to along with the high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM snow map through 54 FWIW thats snow depth.... you would have to show ppl the starting pt to begin with so they could compare..heres the start pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i have 5 mins before i have to go again. i think i heard the 12z EURO closed off the h5 low sooner? If so, we would expect QPF to trend up like the GFS has since it began closing off the h5 low sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi res acc precip thru 45 hr (accumulationg precip os done for our region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thats snow depth.... you would have to show ppl the starting pt to begin with so they could compare..heres the start pt oops, sorry folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 also, i want to point out that the ARW way overdid the moisture for both norlun-ish events (I doubt the second one was a true norlun) so I wouldn't 1"+ QPF realistic. But good trends on the short-range models, and it has really peaked my curiosity that the EURO is closing off the h5 low sooner as well. Now where's JB telling me the wind shifted over St. Simons Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They scaled back Philadelphia, Delaware & Montgomery Counties by around 1/2" from the last map they had on there. Berks county is cut out of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Closing off earlier would be better for us right tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Closing off earlier would be better for us right tom? u want the stronger northern stream, but u dont want it to slow, cause then it transfers later. The closing off to early might make it slow down, im not sure. usually when things close off it has a tendancy to slow. its the same thing the euro did it closed it off faster but it was slower in transfering thus a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thats snow depth.... you would have to show ppl the starting pt to begin with so they could compare..heres the start pt Actually Tom, here are the begining depths. NAM shows some melting from hour 6 to hr 30 before system arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have found those above snow maps off Raleighs to be very inaccurate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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