tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 here are the overly wet arw and nmm snowfall clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 21 of the 15z srefs, they are digging the northern stream moreso than the 9z srefs. 15z srefs could come in a little wetter. 15z srefs are a little wetter. now brings the .5 line back to about phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They scaled back Philadelphia, Delaware & Montgomery Counties by around 1/2" from the last map they had on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tombo, so what do you really look to happen with the storm in the plains, doent look that close at all. I thought it would be the coatal by the way some places in sc reporting 11 inches of snow. well the coastal is what brings the snow. But its how the northern stream storm interacts with it that gets it going. WEith out the northern stream interaction we wouldn't see snow from the coastal it would just shear out and go ots. You want deeper northern stream storm that closes or faster at h5 so that can help intensify the coastal and tuck it nnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The ARW looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM out to 6 Pumping the heights quite a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam through hr 15 is nearly identical with the northern stream but has more ridging along the ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some quick thoughts since I am on a post limit for no reason since I called the storm 3 days ago(probably was banned for wishcasting) but anyway....Looks like the Ensembles of the GGEM, GFS look alot closer to the Nam along with the Ruc, JMA and WRF.. FYI- Jeff Beradeli a respected met said he expects most of the Models to come a little more West in line with the Nam and WRF and also trend a little stronger in tonights runs. BTW- AM19PSU I have been following along all day today and U seem to want to discount anything showing a stronger/more west solution and I think its arrogant and ignorant at the same time. Where is Jeff located these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM at 12, still a bit more ridging out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i would have to agree with you there a little. On the weather, regardless of what the models say, the best forcing and thermal gradient is on the coast so thats where the best snows are going to be. Even if the storm does come west, those in the interior aren't goin to go from seeing 4" to 12"... Probably only increase an inch or two as you will lose the benefit of higher ratios the further west the storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 21, nam has closed h5 low, and more amplified northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As would I. I've been reading a lot and it definitely seems that way. On the weather, regardless of what the models say, the best forcing and thermal gradient is on the coast so thats where the best snows are going to be. Even if the storm does come west, those in the interior aren't goin to go from seeing 4" to 12"... Probably only increase an inch or two as you will lose the benefit of higher ratios the further west the storm tracks. People like me here in the southern Poconos may benefit more than an inch or two. Don't you think? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At 18, looks like northern energy trying to dig faster S/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam at hr 24 is a good bit deeper with the amplification with the northern stream..also stronger with the h5 low which continues to closed and stronger...the ridging out ahead is stronger on the ec....this run may be wetter for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well the coastal is what brings the snow. But its how the northern stream storm interacts with it that gets it going. WEith out the northern stream interaction we wouldn't see snow from the coastal it would just shear out and go ots. You want deeper northern stream storm that closes or faster at h5 so that can help intensify the coastal and tuck it nnw. Thanks for the reply. Great info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 People like me here in the southern Poconos may benefit more than an inch or two. Don't you think? D If I'd had to say 3" - 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its going to be interesting to see how this run plays out the northern stream is more amplified, but its a tad bit slower so it may scoot a hair east...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One thing I see with posts such as change in height fields, QPF axes, is that sometimes it is attributable to noise rather than a change in the forecasted pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Right now, it's looking a lot more amplified. As long as the southern feature doesn't just exit stage right, this will be far wetter for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One thing I see with posts such as change in height fields, QPF axes, is that sometimes it is attributable to noise rather than a change in the forecasted pattern. well through this run of the nam, just compare the 24hr 18z nam to the 30hr 12z nam its a lot stronger with the northern stream, more amplified, but its also a little slower which may scoot it a little east than 12z...will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think I know why you got put on a post limit. No, I did nothing wrong and because for 3 days have been limited to 5 PPD I am p!ssed when I want to communicate something in regards to the storm and I cant. At this point I dont care if I am stepping on anyones toes cause I have contacted the Mods 3 times to ask why I on limit without reply. And Tombo, I know he knows more than me that is not in question but is just the way he reply's to posts today has rubbed me the wrong way. Again his opinion and he is entitled to it but there is also data that suggest this storm will be stronger and further west with heavier amounts. Now will Philly see as much as the Jersey coast and NYC,LI probably not but I can see that area getting 6+ possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 People like me here in the southern Poconos may benefit more than an inch or two. Don't you think? D Binghamton has a watch now for Pike County (6-9 inches), so there is some consensus for decent potential in the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 36 has mod to hvy precip breaking out from dc, balt, amish country and dlemarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's definitely slower, which is a good thing I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 at 36, 850low is in midst of transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 39 has modt to hvy precip over all of se and eastern pa...with hvy precip from acy to toms river to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its going to be interesting to see how this run plays out the northern stream is more amplified, but its a tad bit slower so it may scoot a hair east...we shall see hasn' the 18Z nam runs been typically drier these last few days compared to 0Z and 12Z??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitki2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AMISH COUNTRY. THATS WHERE I LIVE. SORRY I HAD TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 hasn' the 18Z nam runs been typically drier these last few days compared to 0Z and 12Z??? I don't remember for sure, but this run is definitely drier through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's definitely slower, which is a good thing I'd think. with the northern stream? Wouldnt you want that faster so it can transfer faster? or are you saying the coastal is slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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