am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 tombo whats this big warm up look like that jb is talking about. thanks It'll be outside of this model run. He's looking at 1/24-1/30 (at least I assume that's what he's talking about) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tombo whats this big warm up look like that jb is talking about. thanks well the euro only goes out to hr 240, so it wont really show it...the warm up would be in the longer range as the gfs is showing prob after hr 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice to at least see the 12z model suite hold on to about .5" qpf for the PHL area. Maybe the hi-res models will pull a coup or maybe we'll get a late SW adjustment. The thing for me that sucks for this storm...other than we're at .5" qpf vs. double that further north.....is the timing. Seems like the snow will be coming in after dark on Tuesday and the real good stuff will be falling in the middle of the night. Nobody outside of this forum maybe is really going to get to enjoy watching it. That's my favorite part is being able to see this stuff fall. Basically I'm going to probably go to bed around 11 with maybe an inch or so on the ground and I'll wake up at 7 am with sunny skies most likely and hopefully at least 6" total. I think the storm is gone by the morning rush mostly....this is progged as a fast mover and they always verify as moving even faster than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 something tells me MT Holly is updating right now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice to at least see the 12z model suite hold on to about .5" qpf for the PHL area. Maybe the hi-res models will pull a coup or maybe we'll get a late SW adjustment. The thing for me that sucks for this storm...other than we're at .5" qpf vs. double that further north.....is the timing. Seems like the snow will be coming in after dark on Tuesday and the real good stuff will be falling in the middle of the night. Nobody outside of this forum maybe is really going to get to enjoy watching it. That's my favorite part is being able to see this stuff fall. Basically I'm going to probably go to bed around 11 with maybe an inch or so on the ground and I'll wake up at 7 am with sunny skies most likely and hopefully at least 6" total. I think the storm is gone by the morning rush mostly....this is progged as a fast mover and they always verify as moving even faster than progged. well gfs timing has the hvst starting 8pm to 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 phl is like 15.8 i believe so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CBS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro drops some more lgt snow this sat into sun from a clipper like the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice to at least see the 12z model suite hold on to about .5" qpf for the PHL area. Maybe the hi-res models will pull a coup or maybe we'll get a late SW adjustment. The thing for me that sucks for this storm...other than we're at .5" qpf vs. double that further north.....is the timing. Seems like the snow will be coming in after dark on Tuesday and the real good stuff will be falling in the middle of the night. Nobody outside of this forum maybe is really going to get to enjoy watching it. That's my favorite part is being able to see this stuff fall. Basically I'm going to probably go to bed around 11 with maybe an inch or so on the ground and I'll wake up at 7 am with sunny skies most likely and hopefully at least 6" total. I think the storm is gone by the morning rush mostly....this is progged as a fast mover and they always verify as moving even faster than progged. True, but you know most of us in this thread will be up each hour or two at night with a perfectly positioned spotlight or street light to look at it. I've been doing this since I was about age 6, I doubt it will ever change. Also, what's nice about an overnight snowfall, just one clean-up in shoveling/snowblowing in the morning when its done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 phl is like 15.8 i believe so far nice man if we could only get them to come 50 miles more west to kill this snow dome. 1 inch of snow is really starting to stink when you have these big storms all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks to snow for a few more hours after the ARW time frame according to sim reflectivity. Be nice to see how that model does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is really going to be about an 8 hour snowstorm with a few hours on either side of light snow. The ARW looks nice throughout . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nice man if we could only get them to come 50 miles more west to kill this snow dome. 1 inch of snow is really starting to stink when you have these big storms all around. Yeah, I feel bad for you guys out there in the counties of York, Adams, Cumberland and Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 oh geez You mean I might finally be home for one of these events!! (missed the last 4 being up in poconos) Man in the last frame Monmouth County is getting rocked! MoCo Snow Magnets engaged! Coastline defense shields set to 40-50 miles so we don't mix it up! Time to ping Corey........we need some WRF samples WRF-ARW always seems to bullet MoCo, it failed miserably at this range for Sats snow bust. I do believe it handles Mesoscale uncertanty and MSLP better in larger storms than mesoscale events like we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br />Yeah, I feel bad for you guys out there in the counties of York, Adams, Cumberland and Franklin. <br /><br /><br /><br />Feel bad for us out here in Lancaster too. We have been getting the shaft as well!<br /><br /><br /><br />I got more snow on 7-Jan than I did on 26-Dec, and I still haven't reached a total of 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does the WRF ever veify? If so, under what conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres the jma total qpf from the 12z run. Little wetter than the gfs and euro, more like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the euro has about 3 potential snow threat after this one. In the long range it looks nothing like the gfs. Hr 240 on the gfs has a flow right from the pacific sending pacific air into the us. The euro builds a sick pna ridge that pushes all the way up into alaska displacing that cold air west. At hr 240 looks like another brutally cold airmass is going to enter the northern plains and psh south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys, take the snow total stuff to the banter thread. This thread is about the upcoming threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 dtk on the hi-res models over in the Mid-Atlantic thread about the high QPF bias: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8168-tuesday-snow-thread-continued/page__view__findpost__p__262844 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does any one have any good radar images they could post, I have been watching a few and it maybe getting a little stronger, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think Mt. Holly is updating - can't pull up any area forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 did anyone see the nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . is the storm's location in the south the same as it has been progged?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 is the storm's location in the south the same as it has been progged?? its, not the storm in the south you want to be interested in at this juncture. You want to keep an eye on the plains system. That is what causes this storm to deepen and come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does any one have any good radar images they could post, I have been watching a few and it maybe getting a little stronger, http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4152-tracking-storms-201011/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My Wxsim module has continued the trend for a somewhat wetter solution as the day has progressed...now has .52" of qpf in my backyard....start time is pushed back to after evening rush and it will be over before AM rush. Single digit lows possible for weekend Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its, not the storm in the south you want to be interested in at this juncture. You want to keep an eye on the plains system. That is what causes this storm to deepen and come north Tombo, so what do you really look to happen with the storm in the plains, doent look that close at all. I thought it would be the coatal by the way some places in sc reporting 11 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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