am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 what are the tracks like? Im sure they are prob like the nam and furthest west correct? I don't know. They're only out to 21 on the NCEP site. I was just speaking in generalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ill tell you one thing, if these high res models hold these solutions at 0z tonight, then you might need to weigh them some more. I think am19psu has it right. They may be picking something up to bring this a little closer, but the QPF is likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what are the tracks like? Im sure they are prob like the nam and furthest west correct? mm5 is too far east by about 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 36 has larger closed low over east central in...sub 1016 low about 50 miles east of hse.. .01-.1 pa turnpiks south to nc... .1-.25 popping up around southern delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 mm5 is too far east by about 50 miles thats still way further west than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what are the tracks like? Im sure they are prob like the nam and furthest west correct? ARW MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 42 sub 1004 about 100-125 miles east of lewes .1-.25 through the whole region .25-.5 southern jers all of del then back through balt and ne md.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 48 sub 992 just north of the bm .1-.25 bradford to phl to acy .25-.5 toms river to mmu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 984 about 50 miles east of cc lgt precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is very similar to the GFS, for those of you w/o Euro access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is very similar to the GFS, for those of you w/o Euro access. Yep...solid not spectacular event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 same qpf as 0z basically .25-.5 all of pa except central pa past mdt, dc, balt,del, western nj by phl and by abe .5-.75 .cape may to ttn to oreange county ny its pretty much the same by us, little drier up by nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Please verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is very similar to the GFS, for those of you w/o Euro access. sounds like 3-6 for eastern PA with around 6 near the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is very similar to the GFS, for those of you w/o Euro access. one thing it did do, was it trended towards the high res models by developing the h5 low faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 oh geez You mean I might finally be home for one of these events!! (missed the last 4 being up in poconos) Man in the last frame Monmouth County is getting rocked! MoCo Snow Magnets engaged! Coastline defense shields set to 40-50 miles so we don't mix it up! Time to ping Corey........we need some WRF samples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 one thing it did do, was it trended towards the high res models by developing the h5 low faster. So, we are still looking at 3-6 Philly area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 one thing it did do, was it trended towards the high res models by developing the h5 low faster. That's a very good sign. Don't think we should be look at Euro for QPF 36 hours out though agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 one thing it did do, was it trended towards the high res models by developing the h5 low faster. Yeah, but it seems like it moves too fast to make a difference. You get a nice thump, but by late morning Wednesday, it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tom, Thanks as always! I really think this one will trend wetter and further west on the 0z runs tonight. I think the hi-res models for once will be on to something... Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As is usually the case these move much quicker than modeled and I would be surprised at any accumulating snow after 8am on Wed Yeah, but it seems like it moves too fast to make a difference. You get a nice thump, but by late morning Wednesday, it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 By the way, not sure if it's the banter thread or what, but these threads have improved a lot over the last 2-3 days. Good job, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, but it seems like it moves too fast to make a difference. You get a nice thump, but by late morning Wednesday, it's gone. yea very true, quick moving until it gets up to sne where it gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So, we are still looking at 3-6 Philly area? id lean more towards 4-6 around the phl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this coming fri morn looks to be the coldest all season long. Euro 2m temps drop it to 10 in phill with single digits in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 id lean more towards 4-6 around the phl area. This is what I'm leaning towards as well, 4-8 on a gradient from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, but it seems like it moves too fast to make a difference. You get a nice thump, but by late morning Wednesday, it's gone. Looking at the track of the storm, it looks like its further west by 25-50 miles, but its slower to develop hence why its the same qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 tombo whats this big warm up look like that jb is talking about. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the track of the storm, it looks like its further west by 25-50 miles, but its slower to develop hence why its the same qpf. for 24-36 hours out it still seems like there is a certain degree of uncertainty.......ie....the high-res models versus the nam versus the gfs/euro??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 By the way, not sure if it's the banter thread or what, but these threads have improved a lot over the last 2-3 days. Good job, guys. it's those obnoxious yankees fans lol jk.. In reference to tom's post, the h5 devlops between 24 and 30 on the euro..whereas the gfs develops it at 30-33... couple hours difference there... the h5 low is over most of Illinios when it develops, the gfs has it over indiana.. So some difference there, but with the qpf looking the same, are we just comparing apples and oranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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