Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That Ohio Valley Low is a BEAUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too many snow mongers on this site....ohh ohhh look at the wetter NAM, ohh weee.... Forget looking at the models people, are there any true meteorologists left out there? This is not the Boxing Day blizzard, not even close! The southern stream and northern stream never phased, the southern stream popped its cork yesterday while the northern stream energy is 2 days behind. So we are left with the classic northern stream inland low that jumps to the coast with some kind of occluded front draped east to west across PA. Rapid deepening happens too late for most of the region and too far to the north, most of PA is gonna get dry slotted after 0.2" to 0.3" of precip falls. My guess is 2-4" for most of eastern PA, maybe 3-6" in the eastern Poconos, 4-8" in Jersey, 6-10" on Long Island and 10-20" in eastern MA and RI. Whether or not the GFS is correct is another debatable point but it has been very steady with precip production here in eastern PA with 0.30" - 0.40" for several runs in a row... Of course now that I have said this there will be 2 feet of snow in my driveway in the morning...haha Boy, are you going to bust here big time my friend. South Jersey yes, maybe 4-8, but central and north Jersey will see at least 6-12 inches with possibly more in some NE sections. Long Island will probably see 12-18 inches. The phase WILL occur off the Jersey coast too btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OF COURSE EVEN LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEIR PCPN PROCESSES (QPF) WILL COME TO FRUITION. Exactly....hug the high QPF amounts from the Hi-Res models at your own peril; as they typically have a pretty strong bias/less skill (especially the NMM) for high-threshold amounts (i.e. greater than .5 inch/24 hours). The hi-res models can help clue in on mesoscale features, convection, banding, etc....but they tend to be quite a bit overdone when it comes to QPF totals. I think I posted some verification yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 First tentative flakes in Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That Ohio Valley Low is a BEAUT why is it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly....hug the high QPF amounts from the Hi-Res models at your own peril; as they typically have a pretty strong bias/less skill (especially the NMM) for high-threshold amounts (i.e. greater than .5 inch/24 hours). The hi-res models can help clue in on mesoscale features, convection, banding, etc....but they tend to be quite a bit overdone when it comes to QPF totals. I think I posted some verification yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic thread. FWIW, the HiRes Window (WRF, both ARW and especially NMM) models have a more significant high bias for moderate to high threshold amounts (anything over .5 in/24 hours) and are much less skillful than either the NAM or GFS in the short range. Here is 24 hour verification for December over east conus....red/blue are the hires wrf where green and purple are nam and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, from Henry Margusity on FB: I think the latest WRF has picked up on the stronger Ohio Valley Storm. Implications, the coastal gets shoved east and develops late in the game for NJ and NYC. Still a big storm for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is the wrf hm is talking about the one that put down a foot plus for phl im lost on his reasoning i thought we would need a stronger costal to bring that much precip to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why is it?? She's holding her own against a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar is filling in across southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbutl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Little baby flurries started here in Chester County....darker clouds moving in from the West. I'll be more then satisfied to get 5", which seems to be the general consensus right now. Although I do like that little "finger" that everyone keeps pointing out, would love to get a surprise extra like 3" that wasn't originally forecast, but I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, from Henry Margusity on FB: I think the latest WRF has picked up on the stronger Ohio Valley Storm. Implications, the coastal gets shoved east and develops late in the game for NJ and NYC. Still a big storm for New England. When Henry Margusity gives up, you know you're in trouble... I think its very telling, QPF-wise, that at the last minute the EC went toward the GFS, and then at the last second the NAM followed... We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think that the models have always shown the snow in the precip shield over PA. Most of PA gets its snow from the OH low and once the energy transfers to the coastal most of PA is finished for this storm. I don't really think it is enhanced at all. I think you will be amazed how fast the OH snow falls apart. If it gets all the way to SE PA before breaking up then there would have been a problem with phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So what is this basically enticing? With the precip shield storming east, most in PA will see their snows where as those along Jersey coast and eastern LI may not get a whole lot? Although it will still bomb out in the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar is filling in across southern PA Whoever said that low in the OV is dying? Your dead wrong. This is not good at all, it's going to royally screw us in the end. Anybody expecting over 6 inches in the PHL metro, your crazy at this point. Barring a change that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light Snow falling here in West Chester, PA - seems to be right on schedule if you ask me...reading on here you would think the storm went to the north pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbutl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light Snow falling here in West Chester, PA - seems to be right on schedule if you ask me...reading on here you would think the storm went to the north pole Ain't that the truth. We're still what, 8-10 hours away, from what is supposed to be the worst of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18 Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Surprised to see some IP with a little snow mixed in here...must be a little warming up above Current Light IP/Snow mix Temp 27.6 RH 79% DP 22.0 Wind NE 2 - 3 mph Barometer falling rapidly at 30.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This reminds me of that first MF hyperdrive failure scene from Empire Strikes Back... Han - "Watch this!" <fading whine> Leia - "Watch what?" Han - "I think we're in trouble..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hope not...this thing doesn't look right....not coming together....forming too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THE BANTER THREAD IS FOR B.ITCHING. PLZ TAKE IT THERE. i dont see what is wrong? a decent light snow has begun here in West Chester, PA (which is a western part of the area too) and its right on schedule, btwn 3-6pm. Whats with all the cliff diving, 4-8" is not hard to come by....4-5 hrs of moderate snowfall and you can bang that out easy. Take a chill people, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Again here is the color GEM ending 6Z Wednesday. By then most of the precip. is done in eastern PA That's a solid 0.25-0.40". Take it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very light drizzle hear in the Bear DE area. Just walked out of the Y there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It flurried for about 10 minutes at 1:30. Me too around 1: 50....Mods deleted my post. Wonder why there is no opps thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Western Virginia looks like it is blowing up with snow more than the coast.. To me it looks like this low transfer is going to happen way too late for most of PHL and Trenton on south. Maybe even all of NJ also. Am I way off base by saying that? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 short little storm no need to panic...yet most of sepa snow will fall between the hours of 9pm and 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 precip shield filling nicely in western MD. I think everyone needs to unwad there shorts and breath a little. Nice steady light snow here in Lancaster and from the readings of some of the AFD's it seems like things have trended west and the hi res models are outpreforming the globals. Lets watch how it plays out and enjoy every flake. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Western Virginia looks like it is blowing up with snow more than the coast.. To me it looks like this low transfer is going to happen way too late for most of PHL and Trenton on south. Maybe even all of NJ also. Am I way off base by saying that? D I don't think so, that's definitely a possibility. 4 is still in range for much of NJ... but its looking like its gonna be hard for most places to approach 8... even near NYC. Still time though. 18Z GFS and NAM are pretty close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing in Lancaster yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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