Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF totals in our area with 12z GEM are consistent with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For what it's worth JB is monitoring the low development and thinks it will be west of model consensus at this point. Indicated he will be tracking obs regarding winds along SE coast for tracking low position and differences to models. If it did, I would expect it to eventually be more in line with the GFS/Euro/NAM. This time the models ate holding steady close out - maybe a bit more west movement coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 does the rest of the GFS run show anything interesting for down the road? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 does the rest of the GFS run show anything interesting for down the road? thanks Yes more snow next monday - at this point 2 to 4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes more snow next monday - at this point 2 to 4 or so. Showing a major warm up at the end of the run as Don Sutherland has been predicting for the end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS Clown Does that map take ratios into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does that map take ratios into account? general 10:1 (don't bank on anything terribly high on this...might get 12:1 or 13:1 but that's best, best case scenario). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does that map take ratios into account? yes general 10:1 (don't bank on anything terribly high on this...might get 12:1 or 13:1 but that's best, best case scenario). us in the far NW like Lehigh and Berks often do pretty well with ratios in situations like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 general 10:1 (don't bank on anything terribly high on this...might get 12:1 or 13:1 but that's best, best case scenario). Temps are supposed to be in the mid-upper 20s throughout the event here so they should be closer to 12:1-13:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Temps are supposed to be in the mid-upper 20s throughout the event here so they should be closer to 12:1-13:1. Surface temps have no bearing on snow ratios ! might help with the stick factor.. Look at 850mb down to 700 in the snow growth region. Thats the ratio layer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Attention: Henry M's final call: http://vortex.accuwe...518_severe1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Attention: Henry M's final call: http://vortex.accuwe...518_severe1.png i think DT has a final call out too........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Surface temps have no bearing on snow ratios ! might help with the stick factor.. Look at 850mb down to 700 in the snow growth region. Thats the ratio layer.. I would have to respectfully disagree. Boundary layer temps are definitely important. When I forecast snow amounts, and thus ratios, I need to look at the entire sounding structure, not just the snow growth zone. Temperatures are not the only factor I would look at though. The storm will be pulling off moisture from the Atlantic... more water content in the clouds means lower ratios. Even winds play a role in determining ratios as they can cause the flakes to break apart. That's why it is so difficult trying to predict ratios, because there is so much to take into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Attention: Henry M's final call: http://vortex.accuwe...518_severe1.png For Henry, that's a reasonable map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i think DT has a final call out too........ http://www.facebook....129478830432717 Yea good sign to see DT still sticking with 6-10" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yea good sign to see DT still sticking with 6-10" for us. I am surprised but it's all good. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro just init, lets see what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yea good sign to see DT still sticking with 6-10" for us. id lean towards the 6 on his call, the 10 more towards nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 id lean towards the 6 on his call, the 10 more towards nyc Agreed. I bet he changes it when he makes a new NE map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ARW and MM5 look really nice...like not gonna happen nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through 12hrs the northern stream is about the same placement and strength, better ridging along ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this just quoted over in NY thread......... The 12Z WRF-ARW is an incredibly massive hit. Through 48 hrs it has 1+qpf for basically the bottom 2/3 of NJ, extreme SE PA / Philly area, NYC, and Western Long Island, and .75 qpf for the rest of Northern NJ, and it is still snowing. Looks like a 986 mb about 40 miles east of Asbury Park. Looks like it also has 1.5 qpf along coastal NJ and a max qpf off Atlantic City of 2.16. And keep in mind it is still snowing HARD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ARW and MM5 look really nice...like not gonna happen nice ill tell you one thing, if these high res models hold these solutions at 0z tonight, then you might need to weigh them some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The ARW has been a good short range model. I need to put the MM5 on my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through hr 24 sub 1016 low about 150 miles ssw of hse....northern stream may be digging a little more...better rdiging than 0z along ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The hi-res models are always too wet with the QPF, but usually are good at picking up the mesoscale spatial features. You just need to take their numbers and cut them in half (or more). what are the tracks like? Im sure they are prob like the nam and furthest west correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 id lean towards the 6 on his call, the 10 more towards nyc Yea true, but he does say in the zones writeup at the bottom that people out near the F area (On the D/F line) will be around 7". But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hr 30 has a closed low over central ill, where as 0z did not. Has a 1016 low due south of hse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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