IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Per the current observations that some of the mets have mentioned, sounds like a stronger than modeled system is in the works. Time to throw the models out and nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everywhere, you mean? yes from that line east..the whole area is .25-.5 .5 may start once between ttn and edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Moisture with the primary really holding together at current. Even expanding a tad it appears. Would really like to see the radar fill in in S VA. Guess that should start in earnest by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Per the current observations that some of the mets have mentioned, sounds like a stronger than modeled system is in the works. Time to throw the models out and nowcast. I don't think it's ever time to "throw the models out", and I've never understood why people say that frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo, What was the precip for jersy shore - monmouth cty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo, What was the precip for jersy shore - monmouth cty? central ocean north on jerz coast is .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Moisture with the primary really holding together at current. Even expanding a tad it appears. That's not really a good thing if you want the coastal to bomb out. Anyway, seems the EC caved to the GFS. This thread was bound to self-destruct when everyone was crowing about the meso's for over a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yup 3-6" FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's not really a good thing if you want the coastal to bomb out. Anyway, seems the EC caved to the GFS. This thread was bound to self-destruct when everyone was crowing about the meso's for over a day... If the ECM caved to the GFS then it caved in to the same initialization errors as the GFS .ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's not really a good thing if you want the coastal to bomb out. Yeah, I am a bit concerned about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the ECM caved to the GFS then it caved in to the same initialization errors as the GFS .ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. does the euro use exactly the same data input as the gfs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 EURO PHL only .25 NYC about .50 Boston 1.75 inches Euro is .75" for NYC and a little higher for Queens, which is also part of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 EURO looks to have initialized the Coastal Low 75-100 miles east: As per snowlover NYC thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everyone gets hung up on where the models initialized the surface low... when it still remains the upper levels that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro is .75" for NYC and a little higher for Queens, which is also part of NYC. No. Its not. Euro is .54 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've sliced my unofficial call for the Trenton area a bit... 4-8". Don't think they're seeing 10" out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Enough of the snowlover NYC post here please who cares..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tom... don't want to jump ahead (and off topic) but can you post what the euro shows next week when its done? wondering if system goes west next week. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar really blossoming southern PA E MD and E VA, looking better and better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i would listen to ji, he has exact qpf numbers while mine is just a smoothed spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No. Its not. Euro is .54 for NYC GFS has .60 for NYC, very good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tom... don't want to jump ahead (and off topic) but can you post what the euro shows next week when its done? wondering if system goes west next week. thanks. no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pressure falls are hugging the coast off HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar really blossoming southern PA E MD and E VA, looking better and better! There has to be a degree of nowcasting. That's not overly optimistic - it just makes sense. That said, I hope through the afternoon and night the east trend reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It is time to calm down, models don't snow, atmospheric conditions do. The Miller B hasn't formed yet, let see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've sliced my unofficial call for the Trenton area a bit... 4-8". Don't think they're seeing 10" out of this one. ray, i think that is probably a good call....i feel like bust potential (both good and bad) is definitely still high in our area, im liking 3-6 for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here are my numbers, I've had it with the models.... LNS-2" ILG-4" RDG-4" AVP-4" ABE-4.5" My house-5" UKT-5.5" PHL-5.5" TTN-6" I'm out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, look at the radar. It's blooming like the 4th of July over PA. This thing is starting to come together. Relax folks, let this thing develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't think it's ever time to "throw the models out", and I've never understood why people say that frequently. they only say that when the models cuts back on their snow totals. Its amazing how unobjective people are. I have heard so much GFS bashing it boggles my mind. Not saying it is going to be right but the way the GFS has been talked about on this board, you would think it is a terrible model that only rarely gets things right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We are done with the models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.