Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM/ARW/RUC/RR/HRRR are backing off (wrt track/precip) like it's no one's business and I get the feeling on the 0z runs right before the storm begins to hit they're gonna back off a little more with the precip. 5-6" for Philly thought is still a solid storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Flurries here at 12:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't understand this snowfall map from Mt. Holly. If this were to verify, the entire Warning area from Trenton on northward and west of 287 should be downgraded to advisories. I think that area easily sees 7-10" even without the heaviest banding staying just to the east. It has all of those areas getting at least 6 inches, which is the threshold for warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM/ARW/RUC/RR/HRRR are backing off (wrt track/precip) like it's no one's business and I get the feeling on the 0z runs right before the storm begins to hit they're gonna back off a little more with the precip. 5-6" for Philly thought is still a solid storm.. I love that name! Pretty much sums up weather forecasting... I am sure to check out the next set of model runs and how they are handling the phasing, and the placement, and certainly look at the meso models, but at this point, it is really a nowcast. With that kind of deepening being progged, this storm can certainly be pulled even closer to the coast than any model is predicting, and looking at the strength of the system over the Ohio Valley, it will be interesting to see the influence in track of the coastal low as it intensifies, We have seen this before, we will see it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM/ARW/RUC/RR/HRRR are backing off (wrt track/precip) like it's no one's business and I get the feeling on the 0z runs right before the storm begins to hit they're gonna back off a little more with the precip. 5-6" for Philly thought is still a solid storm.. If you don't have a clue what your looking at please don't comment. For starters, HPC disregarded the GFS and NAM due to initialization errors with the placement of the low being much further west than depicted on the GFS and stronger than depicted by both. Second, some of the high res models have gone absolutly insane with precip totals. Philadelphia was never in line to be jackpoted unless you were banking on the 06z NAM verifying. Still think PHI gets about the same as they did with the boxing day event, especially just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It has all of those areas getting at least 6 inches, which is the threshold for warning criteria. It has some areas forecasted to get less than 6" in the warned area and it has other areas barely making the threashold. I guess 6" would still be a warning criteria event but it certainly wouldn't feel like one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If you don't have a clue what your looking at please don't comment. For starters, HPC disregarded the GFS and NAM due to initialization errors with the placement of the low being much further west than depicted on the GFS and stronger than depicted by both. Second, some of the high res models have gone absolutly insane with precip totals. Philadelphia was never in line to be jackpoted unless you were banking on the 06z NAM verifying. Still think PHI gets about the same as they did with the boxing day event, especially just east. would be nice to get a pro met opinion on all this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 as per baroclinic instability on the NY thread: By 21Z we will already know if the 6Z NAM intensification will be completely out to lunch since it has a 1012 right along the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 would be nice to get a pro met opinion on all this!! Read the AFD from Mt. Holly. Jeez 10:45AM update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO BE TUCKED IN TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ITS INTENSITY IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. OFF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 12Z, THE GFS APPEARS TOO FLAT WITH THE SERN TROF AT 500MB AND A FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNALLY LOGICAL, MAY BE TOO EAST. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. SO NO BIG PTYPE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 would be nice to get a pro met opinion on all this!! Read the NYC forum and you will see all of the high res talk. The QPF totals espeically from Bergen County on NE are just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You come off quite condescending. I never said anything about being in the jackpot or the 6z NAM. I was point out that the hi-res/nowcast models are cutting off the precip and or pushing the track a bit east, even the ones that haven't been disregarded (RUC, RR, HRRR). But you would be incorrect in saying so. The shift has been to have a track tucked in closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 alright the euro has just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You come off quite condescending. I never said anything about being in the jackpot or the 6z NAM. I was point out that the hi-res/nowcast models are cutting off the precip and or pushing the track a bit east, even the ones that haven't been disregarded (RUC, RR, HRRR). MM5 and RGEM both looked pretty good to me...i feel like the trends are positive, not negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt. Holly may get some egg on their face, I really appreciate all the work they do and I know they work hard, but just like WE get burnt on model hugging, so too will THEY. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!? They are stating that the initialation is wrong. How is that model hugging? It's fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt. Holly may get some egg on their face, I really appreciate all the work they do and I know they work hard, but just like WE get burnt on model hugging, so too will THEY. what proof do you have that they are model hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nobody in THIS thread cares about qpf totals from Bergen County on NE. Go back to the NYC thread where you belong. <BR><BR>The other poster is correct in that all of the modeling coming in over the past few hours...even the ST hi-res stuff has backed off the qpf for PHL and the surrounding area. The low tracks seem to be creeping westward with more intense lows but this seems to be tightening up the qpf gradient on the western periphery....we to the west would probably make out better with a less intense low so the precip field spreads out more.<BR><BR> <BR>Read the NYC forum and you will see all of the high res talk. The QPF totals espeically from Bergen County on NE are just insane.<BR> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 12, the euro has the same placement, but its weaker with the intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This thread seems to be self-destructing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt. Holly may get some egg on their face, I really appreciate all the work they do and I know they work hard, but just like WE get burnt on model hugging, so too will THEY. And the other short range models appear to be trending east at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 alright the euro has just started I snorted at this. Anyway, Miller Bs are usually nailbiters until the coastal precip shield develops, because we're all anxious about the western edge and where it sets up. This is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!? They are stating that the initialation is wrong. How is that model hugging? It's fact! I mean since yesterday, their numbers are probably gonna bust low... not the present debacle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z euro continues with weaker low pressure and not as much moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nobody in THIS thread cares about qpf totals from Bergen County on NE. Go back to the NYC thread where you belong. The other poster is correct in that all of the modeling coming in over the past few hours...even the ST hi-res stuff has backed off the qpf for PHL and the surrounding area. The point of my post was that the models are coming in better than before unlike the other poster that indicated that the trends were negative. I'm in Morris County which last time I checked was in Mt Holly. If NE Jersey gets crushed, then the Mt. Holly CWA should do quite well. That's my point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lets just let it play out guys, if you wanna bit.ch about track etc, do it in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This thread seems to be self-destructing... Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Almost time to close this, and do a storm, obs. thread me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 qpf from euro .25-.5 lewes to lns to lewistown to bradford pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 qpf from euro .25-.5 lewes to lns to lewistown to bradford pa Everywhere, you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Geez, I go work out and eat lunch and this thread goes to hell. Stop bickering with one another and talk about the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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