Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Flakes and graupel mix (light) on Wildwood Crest Beach real-time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 freezing line MM5 Looks warm near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Old ETA is tucked in very close 9z run (hrs 15-27 3 hr intervals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 DONT SHOOT THE MESSENGER, but I heard that the 12ZNAM had the infamous "initialization errors" MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT ...SYSTEM HEADING. ..ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How reliable has the MM5 been lately? I know that the MM5 was too far west with the Boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest RUC has comma head over NYC, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 DONT SHOOT THE MESSENGER, but I heard that the 12ZNAM had the infamous "initialization errors" MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT ...SYSTEM HEADING. ..ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. I think having a weaker pressure than reality and being SSE than reality, might be a "positive" initialization error. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think having a weaker pressure than reality and being SSE than reality, might be a "positive" initialization error. But I could be wrong. It's an error in our favor, basically indicating that they feel the the preicp shield should have been about the same as 06z given the placement of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think having a weaker pressure than reality and being SSE than reality, might be a "positive" initialization error. But I could be wrong. yeah it would be, I just didnt wanna get shot at for relaying this message, in fear of weenie-ization label lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think having a weaker pressure than reality and being SSE than reality, might be a "positive" initialization error. But I could be wrong. It is. Def a positive. They are saying it should have been stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Flakes and graupel mix (light) on Wildwood Crest Beach real-time Flurries here in North Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eye of the storm just east of Wilmington NC http://www.intellica...aspx?region=ilm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Eye of the storm just west oF Wilmington NC http://www.intellica...aspx?region=ilm You mean east? I would be ecstatic if it was actually west of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't understand this snowfall map from Mt. Holly. If this were to verify, the entire Warning area from Trenton on northward and west of 287 should be downgraded to advisories. I think that area easily sees 7-10" even without the heaviest banding staying just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GGEM 12 hr 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol.... another "initialization error" this time the 12z GFS.... again, in our favor... OFF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 12Z, THE GFS APPEARS TOO FLAT WITH THE SERN TROF AT 500MB AND A FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNALLY LOGICAL, MAY BE TOO EAST. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. SO NO BIG PTYPE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 total precip for storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, the HPC 15z position of the low looks very similar to last night's 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol.... another "initialization error" this time the 12z GFS.... again, in our favor... OFF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 12Z, THE GFS APPEARS TOO FLAT WITH THE SERN TROF AT 500MB AND A FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNALLY LOGICAL, MAY BE TOO EAST. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. SO NO BIG PTYPE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. Even with the error, the GFS wasn't THAT dry. Light snow lasts a bit longer, and it's still .25-.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ETA looks epic! The final trending seems to indicate a shift wwd that would favor PHL and and NYC and even maybe just maybe further towards the A in ABE!! I keep on dreaming of the white fluff, that beautiful white fluffy stuff. What would a crack addict say if he didn't know what snow was, and stepped outside tomorrow? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You do have to be a little careful though; TOO Much trending west means tighter gradients and the possibility of the S/R line to shift further inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You do have to be a little careful though; TOO Much trending west means tighter gradients and the possibility of the S/R line to shift further inland as well. I do not think anyone really is going to have to worry about precipitation problems with a further west track. The low will be deepening very rapidly and this will cause the height lines to crash which is basically what all guidance in suggesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z WRF NMM (still with that crazy finger of hevey precip a touch further south than 00z though) WRF ARW Obvious shifts east from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWDOF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THEEAST COAST. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF FCSTS VALID AT 12ZVERIFY CLOSEST TO OBSERVED AMONG RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE 12ZCANADIAN REG GEM OFFERS REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO. 14Z-15Z RUC RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK BUT DO OFFER A TRACK WWD OFTHE GFS. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISEAMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATESTRUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THESREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAMLEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WEDINTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML......500 MB FORECASTS ATWWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 36 hr NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD...PREFERENCE: NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE WITH SOMEINPUT FROM LATEST RUC RUNSWITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM/GFS SFC ANALYSES AREABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDANALYSES... THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED SFC LOWPOSN AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOOFAR EWD. CONTINUING FROM INITIALIZATION TIME THE GFS REMAINS EWDOF THE NAM FOR THE DURATION OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THEEAST COAST. THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF FCSTS VALID AT 12ZVERIFY CLOSEST TO OBSERVED AMONG RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE 12ZCANADIAN REG GEM OFFERS REASONABLE SUPPORT FOR THE NAM SCENARIO. 14Z-15Z RUC RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK BUT DO OFFER A TRACK WWD OFTHE GFS. AFOREMENTIONED CONSIDERATIONS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISEAMONG THE NAM/00Z ECMWF/09Z SREF MEAN WITH SOME IDEAS FROM LATESTRUC RUNS ALSO LIKELY PROVING TO BE HELPFUL. THE COMPROMISE OF THESREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE NAM ACCOUNTS FOR THE FACT THAT THE NAMLEANS TO THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SPREAD DURING WEDINTO WED NIGHT AND SOMETIMES HAS SLOW BIASES....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML......500 MB FORECASTS ATWWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...RAUSCH Basically they are saying that the models are wrong about the low placement at initialization and the strength, and that the ECMFW is the closest but may still have been too far east, this bodes well for PHL and N and W. We will see how the nowcast develops further, seeing as NOAA is already saying we have to watch bc it could be NAMlike or even further west. Don't despair, we may be in for a surprise or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sun is shining in New Castle, DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good, I'm an ABE guy too. I work in Newark though. So I straddle both threads. ETA looks epic! The final trending seems to indicate a shift wwd that would favor PHL and and NYC and even maybe just maybe further towards the A in ABE!! I keep on dreaming of the white fluff, that beautiful white fluffy stuff. What would a crack addict say if he didn't know what snow was, and stepped outside tomorrow? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Moisture beginning to blossom in S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good, I'm an ABE guy too. I work in Newark though. So I straddle both threads. Stay in Newark! lol that town... Looks to hit newark harder than here, you should try and stay there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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