gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 surprised theyve lowered their amounts. Yesterday there was more green on that map and had some 10 inch amounts Yeah, found that interesting too. Save for the GFS, everything (I think) trended wetter overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rolling with 4-7 for PHL. The 6Z NAM is scary but probably overdone. Heaviest snow falls in about a 6 hout window, a inch an hour possible. Could see some convection during that time. ERIC Thanks Eric-- which 6 hour window would that be-- midnight to 6 am? Or more like 2 am to 8 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wxsim going with a little more than the NWS point forecast....looks like as mentioned in the AFD - they went with a 3 to 5" total. Current Wxsim has 0.69" of qpf with a 5 to 8" forecast. Tough call for my area as Mt Holly sees the heavier banding staying just east of my area here in NW Chesco. Should be interesting! Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Eric, Yeh, you got me checking the 6z NAM.. Yeh that would be scary if we did see that verify.. Your probably right about the NAM being too extreme. Anyway, what caught my eyes was after looking at the forecast my county.. Thundersnow possible tonight.. So, it should be a very interesting night for sure.. I'll have to try to do some filming tonight, although need to be near better lighting.. Rolling with 4-7 for PHL. The 6Z NAM is scary but probably overdone. Heaviest snow falls in about a 6 hout window, a inch an hour possible. Could see some convection during that time. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Eric, Yeh, you got me checking the 6z NAM.. Yeh that would be scary if we did see that verify.. Your probably right about the NAM being too extreme. Anyway, what caught my eyes was after looking at the forecast my county.. Thundersnow possible tonight.. So, it should be a very interesting night for sure.. I'll have to try to do some filming tonight, although need to be near better lighting.. Hey, did you read the post in the main forum about lightning producing antimatter? So we might be producing some antimatter tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was checking out the 06z NAM....things get a bit intense in Monmouth.....the question is how over done is the NAM? NAM has about 17" of snow in Monmouth (ATLH) while the GFS has 5". The NAM also had some rain at the start. Edit: so did GFS..... coastal....inland a few miles no rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd say based on al the models philly is good for at least 6 inches maybe 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd say based on al the models philly is good for at least 6 inches maybe 8. the median between the NAM and GFS is about 7...... 3.8 to 10.2 NWS has 5-8 in the warning ......3-7 local PHL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 transfer in motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the median between the NAM and GFS is about 7...... 3.8 to 10.2 NWS has 5-8 in the warning ......3-7 local PHL..... 7 is about where the 0z NAM was and is just a bit above where the 0z Euro was. osu2's call for PHL is spot on, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rolling with 4-7 for PHL. The 6Z NAM is scary but probably overdone. Heaviest snow falls in about a 6 hout window, a inch an hour possible. Could see some convection during that time. ERIC just glanced... scary for sure... i will not let it reel me in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What a beauty of it were to verify: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just a quick question. Since the timing of the tranfer and location of the surface low is so critical to the QPF, isn't there a fairly high bust potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just a quick question. Since the timing of the tranfer and location of the surface low is so critical to the QPF, isn't there a fairly high bust potential? The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. Hey Tony you wrote some very informative AFD's the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. Thanks Tony. Keep it in the short grass when we get a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tony=legend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southjerseyjeff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. With it currently being tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, does this mean the NAM is more likely to verify? Seemed to be a pretty large disparity of precip between the NAM and GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey Tony you wrote some very informative AFD's the last couple of days. Thank-you. We try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeo Tony is the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF's come in drier http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x24_030s.gif I truly suspect models will take a step back at 12z. Right before a storm happens we always seemto have some last minute adjustment downwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From Mt holly 755 am update: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY...THIS IS A TOUGHER CALL. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH EASTERN CHESTER AND LOWER MONTGOMERY AND LOWER BUCKS COUNTY MAY GET INTO THE BANDING FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. SINCE THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE 6 INCHES OF SNOW...ALL OF THE ABOVE AREAS WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS. FINALLY...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH EASTERN MARYLAND MAY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...THESE AREAS SHOULD GET TO SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT NOT MORE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS COULD ALLOW SLANTED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR LIGHTNING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THESE AREAS. WINDS MAY BECOME A FACTOR LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM STARTS WINDING UP AS THE SHORT WAVES PHASE. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND rest can be found HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noteworthy interim update from Mt. Holly (more thanks) as to the placement of the developing SLP: "THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noteworthy interim update from Mt. Holly (more thanks) as to the placement of the developing SLP: "THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE." Definitely good if you are hoping for that more west solution. Not so much if you are living on the coast watching that precip line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. gigi out! (ryan seacrest style) BTW...if I were to hit a solid 3W, keep it down, the surface of our snow pack here is like concrete.....it would be the longest "cart path" shot ever!!! Might head over to Allaire and give it a try.... Keep up the great work Tony! One thing going against this one becoming a monster is I AM NOT IN THE POCONOS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noteworthy interim update from Mt. Holly (more thanks) as to the placement of the developing SLP: "THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE." has been a concern.....both 6z gfs and nam had rain in coastal monmouth.......anytime you live at the coast a western trend is only your friend if it stops...like boxing day. I believe mixing is a common issue for miller B setup.....but it appears to be limited to the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 New NAM is in and, as of 12h, it has trended east with the surface low as compared to the 6z run. Still fairly similar at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wxsim going with a little more than the NWS point forecast....looks like as mentioned in the AFD - they went with a 3 to 5" total. Current Wxsim has 0.69" of qpf with a 5 to 8" forecast. Tough call for my area as Mt Holly sees the heavier banding staying just east of my area here in NW Chesco. Should be interesting! Paul www.chescowx.com Lets keep that banding just south east of your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 why do the models continually back off of qpf right before the storm....the past few systems ive gone from alot to a little....went from .75-1.00 qpf on the 6z to .25 -.50 on the 12z and I probably wont even see that (with the past few storms as a track record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 .5" line divides Philly and delware county lines, eastern half of Bucks and into NJ.. Splits De in half... coastal sections pick up .5-.75" and up to 1" ( but looks like mixing issues along the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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