am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any word on the SREFs? I think the 03z were a bit weaker but still good, no? Meanwhile, if we get the GFS suface depiction to catch up to it closing off the h5 low earlier then we're in business. Here are the 9z. Lines up with the GFS/Euro QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS out to 12hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_012.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 (crossposted) What's a ballpark timeframe for this event in the PHL region? I have a rehearsal scheduled for 8 PM tomorrow night in Gloucester County NJ. It will probably run until at least midnight. Should I preemptively put the kibosh on it? PHL will likely start around 6-7pm and end around 12-1pm Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 With the latest RGEM showing a GFS type track and other late models drying up would not be surprised if areas to the west of I95 fall below or on the cusp of WSW criteria unless the 12Z suite trends wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GFS through 36 is a touch weaker with the coastal, a touch stronger with the OV low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looks a good deal west to me..through 39. 43, two countor closed h5 low... 42, good hit philluy, burbs and jersey... 45, storm exploded with uvv's heavy heavy precip just south of LI.. low down to 100mb., mod-heavy precip up to nyc /li... light to mod snow in philly and back towards scranton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS comes in wetter at 12z and a nudge west. Development is pretty explosive between hr 36 and 45. Very good hit for LI Good hit for I95 and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Forecasting the banding must be extremely hard this far out. The 12/26 storm was a good example , I live on the Trenton Hamilton border and Ray's(famartin) parents live in Ewing, during that storm Ray received around 10"+ or-, while I had around 14, the 2 locations are about 5 miles apart as the crow flies. This was also evident in the Feb storm last year. The difference was being in the banding or just out of it. Too true. Im in bordentown we got nearly 16-17. Ewing cant be more than 10 miles to my northeast. Is it me or does it feel like the gradient always sets up shop right through TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're splitting them up again, guys, because it looks like we're going to get less and have a lower chance of getting jackpotted than NYC. Its okay with me but could you please include KDOV when giving qpf"s? I am only asking because Mid Atlantic says i am PHL Metro and i see you giving ILG and Salisbury MD though i am smack dab in the middle of both stations the weather differences are notable. (Saturdays little taster we received 4" ILG trace to .2 Salisbury coating) There was also a difference on 12/26 had 9" here more South and New castle hardly anything. I would appreciate your kind consideration about this request. Thanking you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 through 54... good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UKMET looks terrible for everybody, even Long Island. The region gets 2-4" of snow (I think?) and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS looks an awful lot like the SREF mean for the Philly area (about 5" of snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Verbatim, everywhere south and east of the Delaware River picks up 4-8, 2-4 west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM Bufkit RDG- 7.8" ABE- 9.6" TTN- 12" PHL- 12" ILG- 8.7" ACY- 9.4" AVP- 7.0" 12z NAM Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This still looks like a very nice snow event for the NW Philly burbs....the higher ratios will offset lower qpf...good warning criteria snows are likely. Still think this will trend west (unlike most storms this year) with mixing issues for NJ and Long Island. However, as is usually the case this will end much earlier than some are currently thinking. Just flurries/lt snow after 7am on Wed morning. Paul www.chescowx.com through 54... good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This still looks like a very nice snow event for the NW Philly burbs....the higher ratios will offset lower qpf...good warning criteria snows are likely. Still think this will trend west (unlike most storms this year) with mixing issues for NJ and Long Island. However, as is usually the case this will end much earlier than some are currently thinking. Just flurries/lt snow after 7am on Wed morning. Paul www.chescowx.com Paul I think ratios really will save us in the NW as well, if we can get ..35-.4 qpf I think we'll all see 6" and meet the WSW criteria up our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Steve d going with 6-12" for philly and immediate burbs; 4-8" NW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No doubt...I think that is what the NWS is thinking with the watch in the NW burbs...will be interesting watching the 0z runs tonight...I have a sneaky suspicion that the qpf will go up a bit on the GFS at that time and down a bit on NAM and we will have a good consensus on a 4 to 6" event. Take care Paul Paul I think ratios really will save us in the NW as well, if we can get ..35-.4 qpf I think we'll all see 6" and meet the WSW criteria up our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I guess BUFKIT is spitting out 20:1 ratios on the NAM, why does it always seem to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Steve d going with 6-12" for philly and immediate burbs; 4-8" NW of there. I am perfectly happy with 6 inches should be good easy shoveling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Really other than the NAM (up til 00z Mon) and older Euro runs, eastern PA was never shown to get more than 6" by any other models. Take the newest Euro, NAM trends, a steady GFS and what the GEM shows and you are looking at 3-6" for Eastern PA, maybe some isolated 8 or 9 inch totals closer to the Delaware River if things work out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Steve d going with 6-12" for philly and immediate burbs; 4-8" NW of there. hope springs eternal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For ILG and PHL there seems to be a consensus developing (outside the NAM) for qpf to max out at no more than .50" but I'm thinking .40" is more likely. If we can squeeze out decent ratios we're probably headed for a 5-7" event. I'll take it. Probably good enough to close all schools Wednesday but those of us with jobs will most likely have to make our way in unfortunately. I'm hoping for a last minute reverse 12/26 trend here in that things shift west 50-75 miles instead of east. I think that is probably a pipedream though and that in all likelihood there probably be a more east shift last minute. Generally the last 12 hrs of model runs have shifted everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I guess BUFKIT is spitting out 20:1 ratios on the NAM, why does it always seem to do that? BUFKIT is not that good at ratios in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BUFKIT is not that good at ratios in general. 20:1, thats it? haha Like you said, bufkit always prints out horrible ratios (horrible aka way too high).. My rule of thumb is stick to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the GEM is showing less than 0.05" before 0z Wednesday. Then 0.20"-0.30" between 0z-12z Wednesday for eastern PA. Southern Jersey gets 0.40"-0.60" between 0z-12z Wednesday. I doubt much falls after 12z Wednesday. Totals would be 0.25-0.35" eastern PA and 0.45-0.65" for southern NJ.......ok maybe another 0.10" after 12z Wednesday if you want to be generous. Still that looks like 3-6" for eastern PA and a 6-10" southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For ILG and PHL there seems to be a consensus developing (outside the NAM) for qpf to max out at no more than .50" but I'm thinking .40" is more likely. If we can squeeze out decent ratios we're probably headed for a 5-7" event. I'll take it. Probably good enough to close all schools Wednesday but those of us with jobs will most likely have to make our way in unfortunately. I'm hoping for a last minute reverse 12/26 trend here in that things shift west 50-75 miles instead of east. I think that is probably a pipedream though and that in all likelihood there probably be a more east shift last minute. Generally the last 12 hrs of model runs have shifted everything east. Although the particular way the models have progged the snow to fall over New Castle County has differed from model to model and run to run, the accumulating snowfall has been fairly consistent for 3-6" with maybe as little as 2" and as much as 8-10" (NAM). I'm going with 4-6" given the 0Z Euro, 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM and historical model runs. If the low deepens earlier than predicted by the models, we could over that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GGEM moved west from 00z from nyc thread........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 from nyc thread........ If it did, I would expect it to eventually be more in line with the GFS/Euro/NAM. This time the models ate holding steady close out - maybe a bit more west movement coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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